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Danielle DiMartino Booth

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2020-02-27
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2020-02-27
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  1. They're my two favorites because they were really the only two who. They had a go to hell button. They just hit it, go to hell, go to hell, go to hell. And they did what they needed to do for the country. In his biography, I mean, there was somebody like living with him for two years practically to write this big Alan Greenspan biography. The guy admits that he enjoyed being popular for the first time He was like, wow, I'm like really, really popular with these politicians. They're paying attention to everything I say. All they want for the stock market to keep going up. Surely I can figure that out. And so he had a briefing on his desk every single morning.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. It for me at least, and you can talk to people about the era in between Wayne McChesney Martin, my absolute favorite Fed chair of all time, and the only other one I liked.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Well, when Jay Powell first gave his first congressional testimony, when he said it's not the Fed's job to backstop the stock market, I went, you know what? We might have to go back and fix that subtitle because it looks like we have an adult in the room.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. Again, other Columns, the dead rot, take out the yucky capacity, make room for new entrants to put in efficient capacity. You get innovation.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. So, a zombie corporation is a corporation, our mutual friend Jim Bianca, who started fishing the same year we did. He's written a lot of great things. I think about 14% of the U.S. stock market are considered to be zombie corporations. They couldn't last like one or two. If the coronavirus doesn't go away, we're going to have a handful of companies that go poof into the night because they can't handle one or even two quarters of operating themselves because they're so indebted.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. And how you would have avoided zombie banks, and you wouldn't have institutionalized too big to be fail with. Stupid legislation. I was trying to find a polite word And you wouldn't have let them. Let them go downtown to the other place downtown, the other fed on Liberty Street, and instead just go.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. That's different. I'm talking about giving birth to zombie corporations. I did an entire briefing on what the potential ramifications would be in the future of cutting a default rate cycle in the high yield market in half.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Look, QE2 and QE3 were outright mistakes, in my opinion. Would we have suffered a mild and shallow recession? It's impossible to look in any rear view mirror. But we knew at the time that we were creating zombies. I wrote really zombie banks?

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. As opposed to stopping at had they stopped at two, I would have given them a B because of all because of the Pandora's box that was opened by going to the zero bound

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. Exactly. So if it came to pass that they needed to start growing the balance sheet quantitative easing heading to Japan, whatever you want to call it, the Bernanke doctrine dictated that interest rates must go to the zero bound first. That's why I give them the C minus.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. I would probably give them not an F, but I would probably give them a C minus for adhering to the Bernanke doctrine, which was agreed upon at Jackson Hole in 2007 with a very small group of FOMC members, by the way, which was kind of against the rules. But in that meeting, it was decided that a precondition to growing the balance sheet if the time came, right? This is August of 2007. If the time came.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. It was liquidity. It was the alphabet soup of God knows what acronyms that I was involved and helped the New York Markets desk set up for the asset-backed securities market. And you name the market. It was liquidity that was frozen. The price of credit was meaningless at the time to any investor. Nobody was extending credit at any price. Right.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. And I was also of the opinion at the time. Again, he and I were not, and he and I were in agreement on a 2% floor. I'll say that outright Yes, period. Forever and ever. I think that had we stopped at 2%, we would have a much different world today than we do.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. So there's always going to be a deflationary impetus if you're allowed to grow your debt to levels that Richard would have thought would have created hyperinflation.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. Again, he is much more of an inflation boogeyman Weimar Republic speaks fluent German, gives speeches in Germany, in German. He's much more of that generation than I am. I've learned from Lacey Hunt. That the more debt you create, as long as that debt's going to be absorbed by whatever the system is because you've got reserve currency status, the only thing that that incremental dollar of debt is going to potentially create is deflation because you're taking away money that you would otherwise spend on something else in order to service the debt.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. I think that because he had Wall Street contacts and because he was speaking to hedge funds and because he knew that there was 125% LTV toxic garbage that was trading hands, that surely this had to give. Well, it had some more gas in the tank before it did get. Oh, a whole lot.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. I think he saw the inflation, but I think more importantly, what he saw too early on, and this is a lesson I think a lot of people who've been inside the Fed and lived to tell learn. It's that easy monetary policy can elongate any cycle. Any cycle. And right now we're in the longest elongation. So even when the longest longest longest l

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. Greenspan did have a different agenda. There was nothing macro prudential going on. Greenspan at the time said that because the Fed only technically regulated 25% of mortgage lending in America, that's the only thing that the Fed was responsible for policing. There were over a few other people inside the institution who were of a different opinion because in the event that there was a falling knife and something went wrong with this subprime explosion, the Fed might be catching the entire falling knife

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. And it evolved into the more he got his sea legs and realized that the New York Fed markets intelligence, which you're kind of obligated to take if you're running a district, the New York Fed Markets Desk conducts intelligence with the broker-dealer community. It's actually in ink on their website. So, as Joe Q president, whether it be Minneapolis or Cleveland or Dallas, Texas, you're supposed to take all of your market intelligence from the New York markets desk, which kind of reads like sell side research, which Richard figured out really quickly. Because she's not a bitch in economics, neither am I. We're both NBAs and financials.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. It was absent. Right. Who knew what a German landis bank was? I didn't know until Lehman blew up. In any event, I did get a call one day from Richard Fisher, and he took me to lunch and said, look, you're wasting your talents. You should be at the Wall Street Journal. The Economist. What are you doing here in Dallas, Texas? And I'm like, if you couldn't tell, I do have my shoes on, but I'm very pregnant. In any event, within a few months, he asked me to come join the Fed

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. Goldman's economist, but he was just a rookie back then. And he was doing a lot of great work on what Alan Greenspan had been working on mortgage equity withdrawal. So I started writing intensely about the housing crisis. And at one point, the publisher was like, do you know what systemic risk is? And I'm like, actually, I do. He's like, you're saying that this is going to be global and systemic in nature. This is O5. And he's like, you're nuts.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. Exactly. He is 96. But I don't think that he saw passive coming in the way that it's come. When passive investing and Jay Powell walk into a bar, it's a beautiful thing. You don't fight him.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. He basically said that the efficient frontier is going to go the way the Dodo bird, if the pension advisory industry doesn't change its ways and the Federal Reserve continues to be overly intrusive, I just condensed the 30-minute conversation that I had with him. But he's right and he's getting righter every day. He might not live to see the change, but he is right.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Yeah, exactly. But I started wondering about these things. I started writing about the national debt, got the attention of Warren Buffett, so he invited me out to Omaha. I actually spent a lot more time with Charlie Munger at the time.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. So I start writing about things that had bothered me on Wall Street, like the first CDO, for example, that was sold at Credit Suisse. I'm like, who would buy that equity tranche? But this is 0102.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. But within a few months, I actually was the first daily columnist that they'd ever had in the history of the paper. So I was writing a daily about the markets and I was just as happy as happy could possibly be.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. That was 9 11. 9 11 was a big turning point for me personally. Shortly thereafter, a few weeks after 9-11, I met my current husband. And we started long distance dating between Dallas, Texas, and New York. And when the time came, I said, well, just move on up here to Manhattan. And he said, you go out six nights a week and think it's normal. So that was that. I ended up moving to Dallas. I signed a non-compete and agreed to leave the industry. I called the publisher of the Dallas Morning News and I said, I'll work for free. I'm retired. They just, Credit Suisse wrote me a big check to leave. And basically the book went to the junk bond desk. Gotcha. So I, you know, I tootled away with a, you know.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. Well, Look, that's where we are. Oh, wait, today. But the Enron and the Dynaj of the world kind of set us up for recognizing the internet bubble when it was staring you in the face.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. Well, so you know, it was really, it was the Enron experience and the dynagy and all of the, you could tell that these were shady deals. It's like, why do you keep your N1 price target at 40? Stock hadn't done anything in forever. I mean, you know, one analyst is raking away a couple million dollars per debt deal.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. One of the most transformative moments of my life was I graduated in December of 01, was not being able to go to work on Wall Street after 9-11. But having to report to campus the next day, Wednesday

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. And by the way, I was getting my second master's at the time because I'm Italian. I hold a grudge. But instead of NYU, I went to Columbia the best journalism school at night and got my second degree in journalism finally.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. I did share buybacks. I did a lot of debt retirement working with the former Drexel boys. Who DLJ's junk bond desk had absorbed? They were so mischievous. That's the nicest word I can come up with. But I had mutual fun companies. I had some high net worth investors, but it was really. The debt retirement, the junk bond, the private equity. I mean, like I said, Tony James sold the firm, and then obviously he went on to Blackstone in a great career, but Leon Black walked the halls. I mean, DLJ had a beautiful merchant bank before private equity was a thing.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. Tony James, in his infinite wisdom, saw the peak and sold the firm at the very top of the bubble. This was like, oh, oh, I think credit suit.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. That was my first kick out of business school. It was the best place to work. I mean, the entire firm at first Christmas year in 1996 fit in the rainbow room. Crazy stuff went on back then. So that was before the divisions.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. Hey, look, Arthur Anderson wanted to keep me after business school and fast-tracked me to becoming an auditor and then become a strategist of some kind. And they were working with this big company in Houston called Enron. And my mom's like, you'd be staying in Texas, honey. And I'm like, I am so out of here. She's like, DL, Jay, DLJ, what is that? Like a transportation company? I'm like, no, mother, it's not DHL. It's DLJ.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. Oh, yeah, absolutely. You know what? It's the first and last time in my entire life I've had credit card debt. First and last time.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. No, no, that was the first time I'd ever seen anything on Wall Street. Anything. And I looked out, and there were probably like 400 guys and like three girls.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. Some guy at Solomon Brothers came to one of these informational interview type things on campus, and what he had to say was stand up pretty interesting to me. He said, come on up anytime you like. I said, how's next week work for you? So I looked out on the Solomon Brothers trading floor, which was two stories tall.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  39. Inside the business school, we had our own trading floor and we had our own fund, and it was fun. And I mean, it was actual money. Okay.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. Yep, I've got my NBA in finance there the year that EDS actually opened up a trading floor. One of my great mentors, Dr. Keith, he's the person I literally earmark money to the finance department, even though he made me pull apart the black shoals and then showed me how to put it on my calculator. It took me a few years really to forgive him for that. But in any event, so I.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  41. Scholarship, financial aid that I needed for the other half that wasn't covered by this great big scholarship to go to NYU. So I found myself at San Antonio College. So, I am the product of a community college where I started. I went off to the local University of Texas, moved my way up after a few years, became the collar business scholar, just study, study, study. That was all that I could do to figure out how to get back to where I thought I was starting when I was getting out of high school.

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. Things people would never guess about me. Put that right up there at the top. Huge fan of sports and cars. But anyways, my parents ended up splitting up around then. My father told me that he hadn't paid his taxes for the better part of the last decade, and good luck with the financial...

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  43. But for the sake Well, it was something of a circuitous route. I was born to be a writer. I was accepted at the NYU Scholars program. I was going to travel. I was going to be an esteemed, very poor journalist. Covering what?

    2020-02-27 · Masters in Business · Danielle DiMartino Booth on What’s Wrong With the Fed · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source