YouSaid · the spoken record

David Rosenberg

lines on the record: 109
first: 2015-11-14
most recent: 2015-11-14
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“It didn't respond enough. Look, this is Monday morning quarterbacking, and I would say to the federal government in Ottawa, don't make the same mistake. We have had a huge negative shock to the economy from the energy sector. And Canada is, look, it's not maybe it's not quite right of center. It's maybe just dead center under the Harper government. It was more right of center than it's been historically. But there is a public private partnership in Canada. And Canada, the Canadian government has tremendous capacity to borrow money at historically low interest rates and not for program spending or welfare, but for productivity enhancing infrastructure spending, which will have a long-term payback if it's successful in terms of boosting the long term growth potential of the country. You will get on the right side of the Laffer curve and actually end up garnering more revenues down the road.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You either look, I am not look, I'll tell you right now, I am not a tea party advocate. I am not a libertarian. I am a John Kasich type of conservative, you could say, liberal and social issues and conservative on economic issues, but it's foolhardy and actually dangerous policy to think that you're going to run the same fiscal stature throughout the business cycle, irrespective of the negative shocks that come our way. How can you not respond? Your job, okay, this is not bad.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I am forever indebted. I think that he's appointed a strong economics team. It's one of these situations where I think that No, look, the liberals got elected in 1993 on almost a socialist manifesto, which never saw the light of day. You couldn't have sold the story that Jean Kratchin and Paul Martin would have been the fiscal dragon slayers. They would have been the duo. That made Canada the poster child for fiscal integrity. So what I will say is that Canada, the federal government has a 31% debt-to-GDP ratio. The median OECD is 80%. They're really running on a platform of roughly five billion dollars deficits annually for the next four years. I actually put on my report they should be running $25 billion deficits and they could do that and not even spin the dial on the debt to GDP ratio.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, look, I'm not going to disclose publicly how I voted, but I will say that out of the three parties, the liberals did have the most pro-growth fiscal pl”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, I don't know if Americans even knew who he was. Most Americans don't even know that Ottawa was the capital. Wait, that's not.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know what? The key once again, as I said before, the Saudis told the shale guys in the US, you are the swing producer. When I see exploration and drilling activity down 60% of the U.S. year-over-year, and again, well, and there's lags, people may be surprised that a year from now, we're more in a $50, $60 range for $40, $50. Candola was spond and kind. There'll be a lagged impact on all these concerns on energy credits regarding the Canadian banks. And don't forget that this new liberal government has questioned, that's right, Justin Trudeau. But not about him, but about his economics team and the choice of Bill Marnaud as finance minister. Well, no, it's not surprising. It does very plus.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The last time I had the view in Canada was this negative. I think you'd have to go back to the early to mid 90s when Canada was truly a fiscal basset case. We almost had a failed auction in 1995. And of course, we had the Quebec referendum. So we had the political uncertainty. But Canada right now, standalone. If you're a value investor looking for a turnaround situation, Canada looks very good to me right now.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, the most hated sector of the market. Well, I would say that the part of the world that is most out of favor right now is my beloved country Canada. I've never seen the Canadian banks. With such a huge short position by the U.S. hedge funds. I've never seen, I can't pick up a newspaper and not hear about how energy will drag Canada into a pernicious and perennial recession, how housing is dramatically overvalued and destined for a collapse. I would say that the last time I remember the view on Canada, and I think it's way overdone by the way,”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I could see that. And then we'll see what happens going forward. What you're asking about being behind the curve, it's... Always answer that question through the rearview mirror. And I would say that, you know, the tips break even levels will give you some indication the steepness of the yield curve will give you some indication. Commodity prices will give you some indication. The dollar will give you some indication. The whole range of variables will tell you if the Fed is behind the curve. Classically, if you go through a bear steepener of the yield curve, that would be a classic sign that the Fed is behind the curve, and we're not there.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My sense is that they'll probably skip every other meeting. Like, in other words, could I see them going 100 basis points next year?”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So then, what happens is that, and then the dollar impact will dissipate over time goods inflation will no longer be minus four, it'll be zero. Core service sector inflation probably gets up towards 3% put in the Martini shaker and it comes out to roughly 1.52% underlying inflation. And yeah, I guess if your long-duration bonds, you're not going to like to hear that story, but it actually isn't a bad overall story for the economy.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, don't forget that a lot of the reason why we're zero is because of commodity prices, unless you think, oil, it's going to go down another 50% from here. We're not going to get that out of thrust.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A big increase. My friend won't have to do two percent is like Nirvana. I mean, don't forget the Fed wants it at two, and then there's some on the left side of the equation that want it towards three.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I never believed that wages lead inflation. My sense is that there's going to be offsetting forces from the lagged impact of the strong dollar. The weakness in commodity prices is going to ensure that 40 of the CPI, that is goods oriented, will remain very low or maybe in mild deflation. I think we will continue to see service sector inflation. My sense is that inflation is zero right now. A year from now, I think it'll be 1.5 to 2%. Is that, will the Fed be behind the curve?”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look at the narrower measures like the U1 and U2 is down to 2.5%. We can slice this and dice this a million ways. The labor market is tight and it's tightening and the only thing that's separated the tightening to wage growth was the level of worker insecurity which is measured by the quit rate which is going up. So workers are starting to feel emboldened. If you go to the conference board consumer confidence survey and you see the percentage of people expecting their income to go up in the next year that ratio is going up. If you go to the National Federation of Independent Business to their survey showing companies willingness to start to pay people more money that ratio is going up so the stars are aligning that in the coming year wage growth is going to be accelerating the question really is going to be by how much”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Changes is what's limiting. And if you actually take a look at the, and actually the beauty of the household survey is it does show you the discouraged workers. They've been going down, so it's not”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So give me the full aim. It's a good thing. It's a good thing we're friends. The answer is that it's mostly structural there”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, Yami, you were making faces. What's your impression on that? So, well, hold on. You can't conduct an interview by cutting off the person you're asking, okay? I think that's where you're wrong. I can and I did. Okay, well, at first you asked a question, then you answered it yourself.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I just, well, I'm trying to give you an answer, but you're answering it yourself. The answer is that it's mostly structural, largely demographic, largely related to, you know, look it, if you don't like my answer, get Larry Lindsey on here. He gave a presentation at this. I saw his presentation two years ago. Get Peter Bookfor on here and get Larry Lindsay to show you the same. Peter Book, by the way. So get him to show you the presentation.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Don't forget in 2013 we had a fairly significant increase in tax rates on income. The reality is this basic economics the more you tax, the less supply you'll get. You tax work, you'll get less work.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I certainly implied it. You implied it, but unless you've done your own research, but there's been other analysis done that's come to similar conclusions.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But there's another scholarly research showing that the incentive systems, whether it's not just disability, but Medicare benefits and childcare benefits. And look, you go back to work these days, Barry, and you give up a lot of benefits. And some of the numbers I've seen are as high as $40,000. Like you really got to bid up the wages to get people to come back into the labor market. And that's why it doesn't happen. Now, maybe you'll start to get, maybe if the wage rate starts to come back, which it looks like it's happening, the participation rate starts to come back and the unemployment rate stops going down. I think that's a reasonable premise. But there's no question. And whether you agree with the Kato Institute or not, they did show that I think in 38 states, you make more by tapping all the benefits at all levels of government than you do as a starting salary, as an administant.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, there's, look, there's two things there's the first of the boomers turned 65 in 2011, and that's going to be reality for decades. And so there's a demographic element to it. Secondarily, we've created through municipal, state, federal benefits a whole myriad of incentives for people to lead the labor force where you get paid very well not to work.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“People were throwing out the Phillips curve as something you could hang your hat on. All that separated the tightening of labor market conditions to the wage rate were the lags and basically the level of worker insecurity that existed through most of the cycle, we seem to be shedding those fears. The proletariat seems to be a little more emboldened right now. And so wages are now with a longer lag starting to respond.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Companies have begun to hoard labor. The firing rate is extremely low by the way corroborated by what we're seeing in the jobless claim numbers. What I always like to look at was always the number of people that are unemployed normalized by the number of new hires and they was telling me actually that taking out all the other noise and adjusting for the labor force that the labor market was tightening significantly. Question all along was which nobody, I mean, people actually, if you take a look at the title of my of my employment report last week was the Phillips curve comes back from the grave. Maybe apropos because of Halloween.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Below the surface of that headline number. So the Jolts number is valuable because it tells you what that churning looks like. Quitting their jobs, how many people are getting fired from their jobs? How many people are getting hired? So it gives you the churning. So we know, for example, that through the Jolts numbers, that most of the improvement in the labor market this cycle did not come from new hires as much as it came from a lack of firing.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, So, for example, you said before that we created a net $271,000 jobs, say in the month of October. What's missing in that comment is that we destroyed millions of jobs and we created millions of jobs. And then that number was 271. So what you're missing is the churning that goes.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, the quit rate is actually great. When you plot the quit rate against wage growth, You might also plot income and consumption, but the lags were longer this time around. So we are actually now starting to see more. Discernible signs. Look, bottom line, look at the NFIB index that just came out, the small business index, and you got that the net share of companies saying they're going to raise compensation in the next six months at its highest level for the cycle.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Is how comfortable you are going to your boss asking for a raise. It doesn't measure insecurity. What's happening is that this quit rate, and it went up again in the last month, Rich, correct me if I'm wrong, I think it's almost a 10%. The quit rate is rising. And when I was having that debate a year ago, I was saying the quit rate is rising. That actually is the best leading indicator for wages. But you see, the question, well, the question like everything else is always the lags. And how long does it take for the information that the working class has better prospects than they actually think? You see that the labor market is not like commodities and it's not like stocks or bonds. You're talking about people. And so at what point do people start to realize that, hey, my market for labor is actually tighter. I actually have the confidence now to go to my boss and ask for a raise.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Everybody focuses on the unemployment rate and classic measures of tightness in the labor market. Everybody was always saying, well, the unemployment rate's gone from 10% to 5%, no matter what measure you want to use, they've all come down rather significantly, even the broader measures. And yet up until recently, there hasn't been... Big wage response because what these classic measures of resource utilization utilization capacity in the labor market, they don't show.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's right, you know, and what I'll say is what I was focusing on back then was this one arcane statistic called a quit rate. That we know that Alan Greenspan had looked at repeatedly like 20 and 30 years ago, which is the percentage of the unemployed that are quitting their jobs voluntarily in search of greener pastures elsewhere. It's basically what I call the take this job and shove it index. And it's a reflection to some extent of worker insecurity or alternatively worker confidence. You see, everybody focuses on a center.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Oh, well, look, it's a bit of a double-edged sword because the equity market will have to get used to living with probably lower profit margins. Doesn't mean that the market's going down, but that'll be a constraint. Because there's only two sources of income in the economy. The government doesn't create income. It taxes it. But there's corporate income, and then there's labor income. Labor income is picking up across almost every measure. This is actually a debate, if you remember, a Camp Kotalk with me and Philippa Dunn, who absolutely love, and I think that she is the resident labor market. Lico report.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That was one extreme. Now we've gone to the other extreme. We're pretty well at historic lows in the homeownership rate. Yes. I am really not in the business. I've never made it a business to take the most recent experience and superimpose it into the future. My sense is that quite right. Rental construction has been very strong. The rental demand, that's been the big story. But we have very tight apartment vacancy rates, rents. One of the reasons why core service inflation is as strong as it's been is because of rents. So the rent home price ratio is altered in a certain respect. We are starting to get income growth, and I'm making this point that the key first time home buyer category twenty five to thirty four year olds, their growth of employment in the past year is running thirty, not thirteen, thirty percent faster than it is for the rest of the population. Now there are lags involved, but with a lag they will force.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We talked around Bob Farrell, rule number one was everything reverts to the mean, at least ratios. And usually that means that you break through the mean in both directions. When we got up to almost a 70% home ownership rate back at the peaks,”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Barry. Barry. You asked about U.S. investors. So you're talking about what they look like in U.S. dollars. Not Canadian dollars. No, no, what I mean.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My friend Canadian dollar is at a 25% discount of the US dollar. Canada Canada has this giant for sale sign right in front of it.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The US and a 75 cent competitively supercharged currency helping out the beleaguered manufacturing sector and exports. That'll be the story in Canada.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's big. Housing starts are running at 1.2. You have housing inventories roughly five months supply. Very well balanced market. So I don't think that the home builders, which of course we got those great numbers from Poulte and D.R. Horden in the past 48 hours, but the home builders have corrected fairly hard in the past several weeks. My sense is that they're not priced for the prospect in the next two years of seeing residential construction rise as much as thirty percent. Story in Canada is a little different. Housing is a share of US GDP. Is that a low level from historical proportion in Canada? You cannot possibly be more overhoused than you are today. The story in the United States is one of domestic demand. Consumer spending, capital spending, commercial construction, which, by the way, is in an uptrend, and housing in Canada. It's going to be less about housing and it's going to be more about the strength in US domestic demand. Don't forget Canada ships 20% of its GDP.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But what's interesting is that employment in the key first time home buying cohort is running about 30% faster, that is the rest of the population, so these boomerangs that have been sitting in the basement at Mon Pause watching repeats of Breaking Bad are now going out and getting into the housing market. Interesting situation we have right now is that the trend in household formation, that household formation is running towards 1.5 million units.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, that's, I love the narrative, but markets and the economy operate at the margin. So it's the change that matters, not the level and not compared to some historical average”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, U.S., North America globally. Well, you know, I guess that I'm not going to talk about the Mexican housing market because frankly, it has no bearing on how we invest at Gluskin Chef. The U.S. housing market looks very interesting to me, notwithstanding the fact that mortgage rates are backing up, courtesy of the bond market adjusting to the Fed beginning its tightening phase. But still very historically.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, look, I always like to believe that. That I was on my game. But at this level, at a personal level, when the clients actually are either family members or friends or they become friends, you develop these personal relationships. It means that I have to sharpen my focus that much more.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, just maybe round out the discussion. What's different at Gluskin's chef for me regarding our clients is that It's more personal than it used to be.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Make that mistake again. So the bottom line is that today when I make an error. I take it more personally and I feel it more than I did when I was a cell site economist.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Merrill or before that at the Bank of Montreal I would spend most of my time with institutional portfolio managers and if I ever saw high net worth clients or what they call private clients, retail clients it would be a thousand of them herded into a ballroom of a hotel and I would go up and do my dog and pony show. Today you actually sit right across from them face to face and these relationships become personal. So when you're asking about what the primary difference is at a personal level It's exactly that. It's that when I get a call wrong, I feel it a lot more. Look, when you get these big institutions losing a client, it's rounding error. When we actually lose a client, you'd be amazed at the analysis that goes on afterwards assessing where is it that we went wrong and how will we make the effort to not”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You're really separated when you're actually firstly commandment number one, Agluskan Chef, is that we own the same funds that our clients own, so we eat what we kill, we're invested alongside our clients. So when I make a bad call, I feel it on my own portfolio, but not just that, it actually hurts more when you see the impact it could have on your client's portfolio because invariably it becomes a personal relationship. Most of our clients are high net worth. When I was at”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay. Yep. You're like the Gaiko guy over my shoulder. So you said that well. Let me just add this, that in my previous incarnation, I went around the world talking to other portfolio managers at other firms. And invariably, because you're a human being, you're going to be wrong. And I've had my share of bad calls. When you work at a small firm, and we manage 8.5 billion dollars, we're not Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch, you see, if you got a call wrong, it really just hurt your pride. You get a call wrong at a small firm where 90% of your clients are families. And those are relationships that become personal. I develop some close relationships when I was at Merrill with other portfolio managers. Of course, they're managing money for other people, so you're like two or three or four degrees institutions.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I've been in the financial business now for 28 years. I've been a Glasgow chef for six. I would say that I've learned more in the past six years of Gluskin Chef as, as you said, a buy side strategist and economist. I've learned more in the past six years than the previous 22 combined. Because I figured out how to produce and communicate a forecast that's meaningful for somebody who manages money for a living.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I think what makes them even more special is the fact that he does not make himself available to the press. So maybe that adds a little to the mystery, but it also makes his material that much more exclusive and therefore that much more important.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yamarone is a genius divided by 10. And Bob Farrell had a profound influence in my career. We actually, twice a year. We co host an investor lunch here in New York. One's coming up in mid December. He's still a going concern and putting out research and doing work and a sound of mind last time I spoke to him as he's been at any time since I've known him. He is a true legend. The operative word is discipline. He is a disciplined strategist. and doesn't get impassioned. He basically lets the markets and the charts and the patterns do the dictating. He's a rare breed, and I've learned a great deal from him.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source