YouSaid · the spoken record

David Rosenberg

lines on the record: 109
first: 2015-11-14
most recent: 2015-11-14
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“But he years ago, decades ago had written about Bob Farrell's 10 marker rules to remember, which are the ten commandments of how to stay at a trouble. And that's what's important in the investing business is that sometimes most of the time, Barry, it's what you don't own on the portfolio. As much as what you do own in the portfolio, Bob Farrell, there were three mentors that I had in my 30-year career. One of them was Warren Justin at the Chief Economist of the Bank of Nova Scotia. He's about to retire in February. He brought me on Bay Street in 1987. Don Cox, who was the chief strategist at Harris Investment Management, which was part of the Bank of Montreal family affirms out of Chicago, he runs his own consulting firm now.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, you know, we had just a short stint working together because he was in the limelight of his career. When I started at Merrill Canada back in the late 90s, he used to write this report Bob did called Theme and Profile Investing. Which was truly a, like I would say practically a Bible. A heartbreaking.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, low PE business, you got to dial up a lot of risk, but I'll tell you this much, and I'll say it for the record. My relationship with Stan O'Neill was phenomenal. And he treated me with respect whether he agreed with me and clearly he disagreed with my view. We were in position for my view. That's a different matter because people could also say that I was wrong and I was way early on the call. But stand every step of the way treated me with utmost respect.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so, well, that's what I mean, and then I've seen it all. But I'll tell you this, Stan, brilliant man, and you can say in quotes, well, why did he not listen to Rosie? And look, it's all behind us now, but the reality is that when you want to at Merrill Lynch start to compete with the Goldman Sachs on ROEs and ROAs and half your business as a thundering herd, which is a stable...”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Look, I'll tell you this much, okay? Look, I was not a threat to Stan O'Neill, and it's all been written about, but Stan O'Neill and the time I was there. and the time that he was there treated me with the utmost of respect. And I'll tell you that I was probably in his office once a month. And we got along famously well. So we're going into a realm that, you know, where there's the narrative and there's the reality. Stan and I got along very well after he left a short period with John Thane and we got along well. But look, I knew Stan O'Neill very well. And look, when he was making money for the firm, and of course he was taking on a lot of risk, but people would kiss the ring in his finger.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They had equity analysts reporting into them. You had head of fixed income, head of equities. So you had the head of research and then you had all the producers. So look, you had to balance a lot of things.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Let's talk about who you have. Look, you had to make the head of research happy and the head of research also had their constituents”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Had a million different constituents all over the world. Oh, yeah, it was just look, the most important time, the most important. The most important challenge for me. You know, look, you had to manage up, you had to manage down. I had a big team, I had a team in Toronto and a team in New York.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I sat right out there with them. I don't have to travel around the world to see portfolio managers. I sit next to ours and I say the most important client because they're the ones that drive the performance of the firm. And then, of course, I see the clients of our firm, which are 90% are wealthy families in North America. At Merrill Lynch, I mean.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I get up early and I've got a lot of stamina and a lot of engines. The reality is that, you know, it's not just about, look, your work ethic has to be there. I guess you have to have a reasonable level of intelligence. You have to read a lot because it's important to be informed. Some people think that you're smart when all you really do is you read eight newspapers and you know what's going on around the world. Being informed though is important part of what I do. And then it's a matter of serving all your constituents. Look at Gluscan Chef, my most important client or our portfolio managers.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You know, it's a, you know, I have a real passion for this business, and look, you asked before about what's all the best change, but it's really the markets don't sleep. And so, therefore, I have trouble sleeping.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Late morning for the morning, yeah. Well, what time are you getting up today? It depends what I was doing the night before.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, my day probably is an outlier because I did the daily. Which back then was called morning market memo, although internally it was called Rosie's tidbits. My day started. I got up at four in the morning.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it was a look, at that job. Between equities, fixed income, derivatives, commodities, middle markets, the private client, there were so many constituents to serve that it was crazy. Plus, don't forget, Barry, my wife and kids were back in Toronto. So I was freely available to market 24 7. And with that look, it was a global firm. They treat you like an old mule. You travel like the globe. Well, look, it was...”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You cannot marry your forecast. Marry your partner. Don't marry your forecast. It will often not love you back and have a plan B. Have an escape clause. In case you're wrong and have the discipline to admit that you're wrong, and when you admit that you're wrong because we're human beings and we will be wrong, have the insurance policy in place for the portfolio manager. What's that scenario be that they can flip into when you are going to be wrong?”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's marketing, and it's, I guess, this human nature of having to be force fed numbers as opposed to a thought process. But here's what's important. As I found out working on the buy side, and you know, every cell side firm has an economist. Not every buy side firm has an economist. I'm pretty sure that in Canada, Gluskin Chef is probably one of the few. It's about scenario building. And what happens, I think, with a lot of economists is a certain level of arrogance in your forecast that that is basically the base case and that's the way it's going to be. Here I'll just say this much.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I was actually going to say Rich Amron is about my best friend in the world, and so I can't possibly. It's a good thing he's here because I would never take a shot at Rich behind his back.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm the goalie coach. I can't stop the puck for them. They actually are the ones that wear the goals against average. It's their portfolio. Our job as economists, as street economists, in the realm of providing cogent and coherent and cohesive investment advice is to help portfolio managers stay out of trouble and to make effective decision making. So if I had a new role where I provided forecast, they would look like probability curves and you wouldn't be wed to one particular view, although you would have a base case with a probability attached to it. There's something else that's very important to my profession, which is this. It's admitting when you're wrong.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, as I said, I would provide scenarios. I'd attach probabilities and attach scenarios. What's important, once again, you talked about this Bayesian economics. Actually, it should be so elementary for economists that actually go through and take statistics econometrics. We all did this in university. Is it's all about expected values. About across the continuum of possibilities across the distribution curve. What is the reward of being right benchmarked against the cost of being wrong? Spread across that. Ultimately, if you're a street economist and whether it's Wall Street, Bay Street, Montgomery Street, House Street, your job is basically, as the economist, to help portfolio managers make effective decision making. What I'd like to say at Gluskin Chef is that our portfolio managers are the goalies.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, and that's what gets economists in the hot water, and that's the bad rap in the profession. That's why if I had to go back to that, I guess, profession of publishing forecasts, which thankfully I don't have to do anymore, I would do it completely differently. I think the other part is how do you want to?”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a big difference. You've got the whole life of a portfolio manager, their brain is one giant distribution curve of outcomes. And the economist role is not to focus just on the base case. It's to focus on the whole range of outcomes. Is it a fat tail curve? It is a thin tail curve. And actually sometimes just shifting to the Your second, your well, the next two possibilities are? Huge in terms of what that could mean for a portfolio manager.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And everybody in the room will be running down like they'll be sweating, writing down what I'm saying. And I didn't even change my base case scenario. It's all about your conviction level, how that changes over time. And if you're wrong, we're going to be wrong. What is your, what scenario B, C, or D? Because your forecast, and this is what gets economists into trouble. You know, you read these spreadsheets, you read a weekly, a monthly out of a classic cell side Wall Street Economics House, and you think, well, that GDP growth in the fourth quarter, that's got to be their ironclad. But you don't get to ask them how much confidence you have in that forecast, or if you're wrong, say you're calling for three, will it be two or will it be four?”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To help the investor make an informed decision. And that comes down to helping tighten in the probability bands. So I will go to a meeting today at Gluskin Chef where basically I will have the same base case forecast, but I'll say, hey fellas, whereas I used to have 80% conviction, it's down to 65%. Oh, by the way, scenario B is now D and D is now C.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Lynch, you think that you're like the starting pitcher of the New York Yankees. You have it all figured out. I realized when I got to Glasgow how much I didn't know. And it was a revelation I had in my first meeting when I gave a particular forecast and the portfolio manager, I forget what it was exactly, said, so how much conviction do you have in that call? And I said, what? Well, he said, well, certainly, you know, you don't have, it's not 100% ironclad. What is your conviction level and then what scenario BC or D if you're going to be wrong where are you going to be wrong? So you see if you're managing money for a living, if you are an investor, a portfolio manager, your whole world is one giant probability curve and the economy”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, there's always a certain level of uncertainty, and I'll get into that in a second. I think also we live in a very fast money world and a world where you have to pay attention to geopolitics more than you used to before. And it's just, you know, the information gets transmitted much more quickly. You mean it's incredible that sometimes you get moves that in the old days, you'd get in a year can actually happen in like a week now. And look, the onset of program trading and all the electronics and that go along with that. Let me just say this. If I had to present a forecast today, like I used to when I was on the sell side at Merrill before that Bank of Montreal Bank of Nova Scotia, after six years on the buy side of Gluskin Chef, sitting down twenty four seven with our portfolio managers, I finally figured out I used to think, you know, when your chief economist to Maryland.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, firstly, there's always a certain level of uncertainty. Around your forecast. It's like Yogi Bara famously said making forecasts is very difficult, especially when it comes to predicting the future.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My friend, I think I was either platinum gold or silver on six different airlines back when we used to have six different airlines.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I'm actually going with our investment team to McCow in Hong Kong at the end of the month. But mostly, look, most of our business is in Canada and the States. So I don't do the European and Asian roadshows like I used to. In the US, a good chunk of our business, at least 10% is in the States.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He should have gone really big back then towards a real new deal to get the economy moving. The fiscal response was tepid and it put all the burden of responsibility on Montreal policy.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The banks like utilities. And so every step of the way, we haven't even been able to pass a budget. The government's been operating on continuing resolutions so that every few years, what do we have, the risk of a government shutdown and debt default that again causes businesses, I'd rather just buy back my stock. Thank you very much than issue debt to actually commit capital to an economy where there's basically no fiscal visibility. So that's been a big part of the problem is that you did not have the utopia, which would have been fiscal policy working with monetary policy. We have Larry Summers, who now has been saying for a while they were in secular stagnation, he was the one telling President Obama, if not mistaken, to go targeted and timely and transitory with the fiscal response, the infrastructure spending that never went anywhere. The president should have gone big. He had a big tailwind behind his back.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Krugman wanted to do. No, Barry, you know, the sad reality is that our politicians created so many roadblocks in the US unnecessarily. Look, I'm from Canada. We have socialized health care there. But to really invoke a complicated healthcare plan, because you couldn't get it done when Hillary was in the White House back in the early 90s. And this wasn't even about President Obama. This is more Pelosian Reed. And I'm not going to discuss the social fairness of this, but to enact legislation that's so complicated that froze the small business sector in time literally two years after the capital markets and the housing market detonated. Bad timing. That delayed the recovery. Then we had to basically swing the pendulum the other way. We had libertarians running the Fed. We built the Wild West and the financial markets and the sheriff left town. So then what do we do in this cycle? Swing the pendulum between Basel III, the Vocal Rule, Dodrank. So we basically now are regulate.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Credit and an implosion of asset values. This is what happens. If you want to take the most, I think, dramatic example, go back to the 1930s. Okay, now look, we don't have 30% of the people living on the land. We didn't have a dust bowl. We actually have deposit insurance and we have unemployment insurance. We have a social safety net. I'm sure that without all that, it would have been practically just as bad. We didn't let every single bank fail. We didn't have a massive run on banks despite the fact that some institutions were allowed to falter. So the bottom line is that when you take a look at the history of financial crises of this magnitude, yeah, you drop interest rates to zero. You keep them there for a long time. And the only reason why the central banks, well, let's just take the Fed as an example, had to do as much as it did was because fiscal policy was so ineffective.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I would have said that maybe if you wanted to figure that out, you'd read the Rogolf Reinhardt classic, or you'd read the work of McKinsey. Well, this time it's different.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That if you're playing China in the future, it's not the Alcoas and it's not the John Deere's and it's not the caterpillars, it's who are the global champions that will penetrate.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's growing. Consumer spending in China accounted for almost sixty percent of the overall growth they generated. This is not the China people you see people are just, they take the latest experience of the extrapolating the future. The new super cycle is consumer spending and consumer spending on services. If I'm not mistaken, we just printed, what was it? Like a 12% year-of-year. Retail sales number in China. The US hasn't printed a number like that in almost three decades, and somehow China's crashing and burning. Look, China's, they do have leverage problems. They're still liberalizing. It is a work in process. But the reality is that as Alibaba showed you a few weeks ago with their blowout earnings.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that's the new super cycle internet services, media services, education services, health services. The service sector side of the Chinese economy that apparently people are telling me is crashing and burning because people just tend to look at commodities and manufacturing diffusion indices, which give you a very Small snapshot for the first time in China's modern history service sector accounts for over half of their GDP. The service actor in China is now”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, every time this happened in the past, oil is put in a bottom. We're just not going to get a V shape recovery. But I think oil is putting in a bottoming formation. The next time you get towards 60, this fracking revolution, the technology is so sophisticated that it's not going to take much to really trigger the output. So I think we're in a broad $40 to $60 range. I'm not in the view that we're going down to $30, barring a global collapse in demand or a recession. Near-term prices will remain weak. I think that within a year, I think there will be opportunities. I think there will actually be another run towards 60. It'll be temporary and it'll be a trade. Energy is a trade. Commodities are a trade. They're not an investment. The 12-year super cycle, courtesy of China is really yesterday's story. If you're going to play the next super cycle out of China, you're going to be playing services because that's where their economy is gravitating to. They're gravitating away from industrialization, away from exports towards consumer spending mostly on services.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The term you expect longer term. Longer term, well, I think that look, when you're taking a look at the rate count and the types of rigs that are now being shuttered as opposed to the type that were, the unofficial ones being shuttered, say, six months ago, the fact that drilling and exploration activity is down over the past year in the US by 60%.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, just looking at the fact that the forward curve is positively steep. So it's telling you in terms of the near-term pricing that there's still some supply pressure putting some downward impact on the spot price of oil.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“nineteen eighty six Go back to nineteen ninety one go to nineteen ninety nine go to two thousand two go to two thousand nine it was always the Saudis leading OPAC in fact you just go back to 2009 who cut output from ten million to three member states a day were the Saudis the Saudis told the shale guys in the US you are now the swing producer we're out of that business and then throughout that and despite that going into last summer when oil was hitting its slows and right now we're putting a bottoming process American producers were still producing five hundred thousand barrels a day more in the summer than they were last November.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, I never would have said that copper price alone would have signaled a recession. Every recession's been presaged by one thing and one thing only, which is an inversion of the yield curve, full stop. So I'm not so sure that you can look at the price of anything and just say it's demand contraction. Every price is determined by two lines where they intersect, which is supply and demand. And so it's interesting you talk about oil, for example. Throughout this, say, 70% collapse in the oil price, global demand has just gone up. Bud lines just for printing too much oil. The swing producer, the Saudis, told the Americans a year ago. You're the swing producer, not us. Shale, America, you are the swing producer. We've given that up every single bottom in the oil price.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Barry, you have earnings contractions in about half the market, earnings positive and half the market. It's been a very idiosyncratic, stock-specific sector selection market this year. It's not been a market that you buy the index. The bottom line is that stay away from the areas that have excess valuation that are hitched to the foreign economy that are vulnerable to the US dollar. The bottom line is that for all the talk of what a bad market it's been this year in earnings recession, the best performing sector is consumer discretionary, over 10% capital appreciation this year, over 10% earnings growth. Now understand that consumer discretionary might be between 10 and 20 percent of the S&P market cap, but it represents seventy percent of GDP. How bad can things possibly be when consumer cyclicals are seeing 10% plus earnings growth and ten percent price appreciation in the same year?”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, we're in a range. Look, people are talking, they can go in eighth. I mean, we're in a range. Look, there's other mechanisms. Also, what do they do with the interest rate and excess reserves? We're in a whole new realm of how they operate monetary policy. But my sense is that if we're talking about my view on what it will mean for basis point impact, it's probably going to be 25 basis points.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, no, you know, the thing is, so people were saying in September, but the reality is that it's not what they see we don't know. Half the stock market was down 20 and credit spreads were widening inexorably. So the fact is the fact is that some people thought that the Fed was just going to look through that tightening of financial conditions and still raise rates. But the reality is that they didn't look through that tightening of financial conditions. They weren't sure if things were going to subside or not. Well, they have subsided. Now the prospect of the first rate hike in nine years is on the table. If they don't move at this stage, look, they basically have set the bar very low. It's not as if things have to get better. They just don't have to get worse. And they are going to raise rates. But if we have another”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, if they don't hike on December 16th, I'm nervous and I'll tell you why. And it's not because of what happens on December 16th, it's that something happened in the lead up to December 16th that caused them not to raise rates. So basically, the picture you're painting, Barry, is that is a repeat of a cause of them to go on the sidelines in September, which is that we have, once again, a major tightening of financial conditions. So stock market, correction, widening spreads, something nefarious is happening because they are right now once again setting the table for us. If they don't follow through, they suffer a credibility problem. If they don't follow through barring a credibility problem, it's because something else happened along the way that if your lung risk is not going to make you too happy.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The recession. Recessions have never started after the first rate hike. The recessions start after the last rate hike. So if you're worried about the rate hike December 16th, then sure there'll be more volatility. We're going to stress test liquidity in the bond market. No question about that. You might want to have a little more cash on hand going in next year for optionality purposes. It doesn't mean that it's the end of the cycle. The cycle ends every time after the last rate hike because it's a last rate hike that ultimately brings the economy to its knees. So if that's your view, then you have to believe that the first rate hike is going to be the last rate hike. And I don't believe that for a second.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Big difference, Barry. You go back to, look, a 1994, you did have a big inflation problem that had to be circumvented. You go back to the late 1990s. We had a tech bubble that the Fed had to get ahead of. You go back to that period, you're quite right. Look, 2004, they started to raise rates. They went from 1% to 5.5% in two years and not the most ardent hawk or bond bear saw that coming. But the Fed had a big bubble on its hands. It was the housing incredible bubble. I'm looking around trying to find where the bubble is. There might be little pockets of bubbles here and there, but nothing and certainly no inflation bubble just yet to cause the fad to have to raise rates at every single meeting. So my sense is that they raise, they reaffirm this notion lower for longer, and we'll take it from there. But what I will say is this comes back to your question about.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“My good friend Barry, it's already been more than a year. So, you know what, it's high time to move off of zero. And at the same time, when it comes to December 16th, and they probably will at this point raise rates, it's what they say that's going to matter. And they will continue to reaffirm the view that this is not going to be your big brothers, your fathers, or your grandfather's tiding cycle. It's going to be truncated. They could easily signal that not that they're one and done, but they're going to move and then pause and assess so that this is not going to be the fed of old when it became an exercise of eating potato chips. You just can't stop at one.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just as we don't need QE anymore, they ended QE. And once again, let's attack the narrative. The narrative was that as soon as they ended QE, which was October of last year, the economy was going to crumble, go down to its knees, they ended QE, no such thing happened. Now, if you go back to when Yelen was telling us what the time lag was between the end of QE and the first rate hike, she inadvertently had mentioned six months.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No, no, no. Well, it wasn't just the Shanghai Index at that point. I mean, you had a situation where credit spreads in the U.S. were widening dramatically. You had a situation where over half the stock market was down at least 20% from the highs. So basically what had happened at that point was we had a major tightening in domestic financial conditions. And so the Fed went to the sidelines. You know, look, reality is this. You know, we tend to get a little myopic in the marketplace. I'm a market participant. They do have eight meetings a year, so they took a pass. The economy is in fine shape. The bottom line here is the desperate desire by the Fed to move off of zero. That's what this is all about. Move off of zero. Normalizing.”
2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source