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David Rosenberg

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109
first
2015-11-14
most recent
2015-11-14
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1
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podcast

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  1. “Think the Fed has already laid down its cards, and even the doves are running for cover. So my sense now is that the Fed took a pass in September primarily because of the global turmoil.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “Well, you know, it's interesting. The household survey is certainly volatile. The payroll survey tends to be more stable, which is why the markets have already paid more attention to it, but it has been a little bit more jumpy, which is why always any economist will tell you focus on the three month, six month, even the 12 month trend. The data telling you that the economy is in decent shape, full stop.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “And the economy, what do you know generated two hundred seventy one thousand net new jobs? So I think what's happening is that the fallacy that the strong dollar and the weaker emerging markets were going to bring the US economy to its knees, right now we're putting the rat in the laboratory, that thesis has been proven wrong. I'm quite actually content with that. And the view that the shale contraction was going to create a major domino effect through the economy has been proven wrong as well.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “You can say in part by government. Certainly it's a service sector economy outside of manufacturing still generated, as you said, barry $271,000 net new jobs. Then there's been all the narrative. Well, I would say for the past year that the downdraft in oil was a net negative for the U.S. economy, that it was going to destroy the Montanas, the Dakotas, Texas, and just bring down the U.S. economy because apparently over a five-year period, all the jobs that were created was in shale. Well, once again, we had a month where no growth in manufacturing. The resource sector actually had a fractionally negative job market performance.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “After the September number was overdone, I think maybe a bit of the euphoria. After the October number could be a little overdone. I think that it just validates the view that the US economy is doing okay, maybe a little bit better than okay. Me, what really stood out was this This combination of a super strong US dollar. The weakness that we're seeing in various parts of the world, particularly emerging. And push the manufacturing sector into a downturn that would then cause a generalized malaise in the economy. Well, the reality is that that view has so far been proven to have been wrong because we didn't have any manufacturing jobs created last month, and yet somehow an economy that is actually driven in part by construction.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Not at all. But the point I was making when I said about the perspective or the context of the. October payroll number, which was actually one of the best. Employment numbers of the cycle was you have to take a look at in the context of We saw in September. And the truth is usual is somewhere in the middle. I think that the angst, oh, let's just finish. The angst.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “Okay, well We'll get to the recession indicators. I mean, we can debate. Whether the economy slows down or speeds up next year, I think a recession. Probably as close to 0, in this world can be.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “No age growth, apparently validating the Fed's no move in September. And actually, I started hearing people talking about the prospect of a recession.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “Well, if you remember before we got the October payroll number, just over a month ago, we also got the September number, which at that point was putrid.”

    2015-11-14 · Masters in Business · Interview With David Rosenberg: Masters in Business (Audio) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source