YouSaid · the spoken record

Jason Shapiro

lines on the record: 109
first: 2024-05-31
most recent: 2024-05-31
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“To process, discipline, risk management. These are the things that matter, right? Not, hey, come and trade like me. It's, hey, come and trade like you, but use these lessons that I need to keep my stuff good, to keep your stuff good. That's really what this is about. We're trying to help people, like I say, we're trying to teach people to fish rather than give them fish, right? So if you're looking for a tip sheet. Someone that's going to turn your $10,000 into a million dollars over the next six months, by all means, go somewhere, go to someone that does that. That's not what we do. Once you've done that and you've lost your money because that never is going to work and you still want to trade and you want to really learn the principles of what successful trading is, then maybe check us out because that's what we try to focus on.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We are not trying to be, and I never want this to be, a tip sheet. That's not what we're trying to be here, right? This is not about, hey, Jason Shapiro was a market wizard, so what is he saying? Is he saying buy S&P? So I should buy him? Is he saying sell S&P? It's not supposed to be about that. I do show the trades that I'm doing based on my process, but I also try to get through to people that my process is not your process, nor should it be, right? I have a very specific process that creates a very specific return stream, which is a negatively correlated return stream for institutional investors that are looking for negatively correlated return streams for their portfolio. It's probably not what your goal is in trading. But the lesson is that in all the things that I do and in watching my trades and how I trade, I'm trying to get the point of what's important to people, which is one, discount messing. Two, and how to measure that.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Indicators that our people get if you're on TradingView for positioning data that you can download onto your trading view and see the positioning stuff. Yeah, and I want to say to people, I know people join these services all the time”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have written for myself every weekend just to keep me in check as to what I'm looking at, what trades I want to make, keep my process in check, and keep my discipline in check. And then I also have always written macro stuff on there too, doing it the way that I just spoke about, mostly so that I can go back in time and look at how wrong I was, because that's a great place to learn. This newsletter is essentially my trading diary for 20 years. So we give that on the weekends. We do a Discord so that everyone comes on Discord. We talk about the markets. We talk about different trades, different trading ideas. We do weekly Zoom calls on Friday night to talk about the positioning data when it comes out. We do them on Sunday night to talk about what we're looking at at the coming week based on all these different ways of looking at the market, what's discounted in, what's the positioning saying, what's the action saying, that kind of thing. We have developed some trading view.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Market report was started a few years ago after I was in Jack Schweger's book, and a lot of people were coming to me asking for advice how to trade, can you teach me? Can I work for you? I'm one of those people. I told them I'd love to do that, but I don't really have the time. I can't teach 200 people at the same time. So he started this webpage for people to come and do that. We produced a weekly newsletter is how it started, which is really.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It doesn't, and the market doesn't trade like you said. Correlations move all the time, right? And it told you the narrative afterwards that people are using, right? Oh, well, they make it up later, right? And then it goes bad because they've all discounted that in and then they make up the next narrative. And that's what I'm trying to do when I do my Microsoft. I'm trying to get in front of what the next narrative could be. I'm not saying this is what's going to happen because I'm a great macroeconomist. I'm saying people are way too long this stuff metals, right? So I think that they're going to go down. And if they go down, then the narrative at that point probably becomes there's going to be an economic slowdown, right? I'm not saying there's going to be an economic slowdown. Therefore, metals are going down, right? I'm saying there's a high probability from what I look at the metals are going down. Therefore, the narrative, once they do, is probably going to be that there's an economic slowdown coming. I do it backwards.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, so there are short term rates. Yeah, the narrative change constantly. So, what was bullshit was to say that trading correlation, which was true in 2022, would stay forever correct. I would say that the fundamental case of, you know, if everyone was a valuation traded, yeah, yeah, like Tesla or growth stocks, a company that has zero revenue should be more sensitive to changes in interest rates because the discount rate than a coal company that has a PE of three. But just because that makes sense in, you know. people who went to Wharton's heads does not mean that the market trades on that all the time. Definitely not.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, and it wasn't long ago that people were saying, oh, well, these Nasdaq stocks are long duration assets because their earnings are so far out. So therefore, they have a big sensitivity to interest rates. Well, that's turned out to be complete bullshit. Now they're saying that, oh, well, these NASDAQ stocks are actually a flight to safety because they have so much cash.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I guess the positioning would have to change quite a bit. I have to see people, and they are starting to, even though the AAII thing was taken down quite a bit this week, right? I'd like to see people get more bearish stocks. I feel like they have gotten a lot more bullish. They're not Max, but I feel like they've gotten a lot more bullish here. Although bullish the wrong areas, bullish the DAO stuff, not bullish the tech stuff, right? Is what I feel like. I would have no problem stocks over bonds. Nasdaq over TLT. I don't know if you go look at the Nasdaq T over TLT chart. It's one of the greatest charts in history. All it does is make new all time highs, like for years and years and years.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a bullish Looking to freak out. People are still looking for my thing, right? Which is the world's coming to an end. And here it comes, right? And that's a bullish sign to me.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Nothing. It's nothing. I always think of when 08 happened. One day that the first day bad day, the doubt was down like 500 points. And I went to my daughter's basketball game that night. I specifically remember this guy coming over me and going, man, the DAO is down 500 points. There's just something about that number, 500 that people love. 87 was 500 something points, you know. But you're right. It's meaningless nowadays, 500 points. I mean, talk to me about percentage. If it's down 5% a day, hey, you know, freak out, right? But 500 points on 40,000 points. It's silly. You're totally right. It's silly.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Talk about points. No, but you're right. Clearly, percentage terms is a lot less, and that's the point. But you're right, every time the market goes 500 points, people are like freaking out, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's bullish. Someone said that on our Discord just yesterday, which I thought was great. He was like, Knazdick's like 1.3% off its all-time highs and everybody on here is freaking out So it just shows that so I really don't think that it's time to really go short here, right? I don't think this is the all-time high here. It doesn't feel that way to me because of reasons like that, you know? It's funny, I think in 87 when the stock market crashed, Dow lost 500 and whatever, 70 points or something like that, I'm guessing. That's just like a day's pay nowadays, right? Yeah. We work through an 87 crash basically every day either to the upside or the downside, right? Maybe not every day.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, let's check that out. And the rules, the correlations constantly change. You pay a lot more attention to them than I do. But I know stocks went up as bonds rallied from November to January, February, and then stocks went up as bonds sold off from February to now or to April then. So yeah, the role constantly changed. No, they did.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that's when the market, the tape is giving you a hint as to what is going to go on. So let's use PCE tomorrow. It'll be interesting.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is just a one day thing today, and this stuff will just go right back up. Who knows? We'll see, but I wouldn't be long the medals, like I said. Tomorrow will be cool because we'll get a number and I'd like to see that number come out weaker because then we can get a good look at how people want to react to that, right? There's going to be a point. These markets are going to the top where they are going to not go up on better than expected inflation numbers. And that's when I think. Potential for trouble comes in. Might not be tomorrow. Maybe we get a week number tomorrow and they all go up. Okay. We're back to normal. Or maybe we get a stronger number and they go down. Okay. That's kind of normal too. But I like to look for when the market does what it's not supposed to do.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Assets have gone up as bonds have, you know, assets really started, those metals assets and whatnot really started to rip when bonds started to bottom in April, right? Okay. That's when the commodities really started to rip. But you're right, having said that, bonds did top basically the last week of December. And while they've been going down, stocks have still been going up, right? And these assets haven't been going up. So that is a true statement. But my excuse for that or my explanation of that is that rates, like I was saying, I just believe that rates are still too low. So until they get high enough to choke this stuff off, these assets are going to keep going up, right? And that was what was going on. It just seems like that is not going on anymore. But look, maybe if bonds are going to keep going up, maybe”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, what you're saying is looking at it from the other side. Commodities are down, therefore inflation and down, therefore bonds are up. But that hasn't been what's been going on, right? What has been going on, and I'm not going to argue with you, that can be a correct interpretation, but what has been going on is. Bonds up interest rates down, driving money into assets, creating liquidity, driving money into assets, driving them up, driving up gold, driving up silver, driving up copper, right? That's what's been happening. Looks like it's not happening anymore.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Commodities down bonds up does make sense because to me at least because when commodities are down it's going to be bearish for inflation or you know lower inflation and so bonds do well with low inflation and they do badly with with high inflation what may seem weird to me is commodities down stocks down”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because if bonds are up, that's implying lower interest rates. And that's supposed to be what's driving both the stocks here, right, and the commodities. What's supposed to be driving it, right? It's these lower rates. If rates are going to be lower, then there's money out there and liquidity out there to drive all this other stuff higher. That's what's been happening. That has been what's happening, right? And there's a bunch of narratives that I develop in my mind. That's the one that's been working. So that's the one I've been riding, right? But that narrative. Today, and again, today's only one day, but it's not breaking down today. Bonds are up. There's the best day. Bonds I've seen in a while, right? And stocks are down.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Metals, Not really. Not really. Really, I think my view is to watch the reactions. You have to watch the reactions. That's what's going to tell us what to do, right? So far. Come out a little stronger. You know, we get the bonds down, the stock's maybe down, the dollar may be up, you know, stuff comes out a little weaker. You get the bonds up, the stock's up. Come out of these maybe up, right? I think what you want to watch for is when that starts to break down. That's when you start to see a change in what's happening. And like I say, today is one of those possible days because you do have bonds up a lot and you have stocks down and you have commodities down that shouldn't be. That should not be, right? Somebody has to tell me why copper's down today.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I follow the hang sing a lot just out of old hab Used to give great signals. So there used to be a way to play those off each other. That went away probably seven, eight years ago. So that doesn't work anymore. But I do watch it just out of old habit. You know, I watch the knee carry. I watched Hank Sang. I watch China. I watch to see how they're doing, but it doesn't have very much of an effect over what the markets I trade are doing, really.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Since 1992. And at the time, as a young guy, right in the middle of Asia, right in the middle of all this, it was clear that China was going to take over the world, right? It was clear that that's where things were going. And by the way, I went to Shanghai in 1994 or 95, and it was a backwater, right? I mean, it was nothing. There was nothing there. I stayed at the Portman Shangri-La, which was essentially the only hotel that foreigners were allowed to stay in. It was like an 18-story hotel and was like the biggest skyscraper in the city in 1994, 95. I went back in 2008 and it was the biggest city on the planet, right? Skyscrapers as far as the eye could see, right? Had the greatest growth story Probably in the history of the world. Hang Seng Seng is up 50%. That time period What's the Nasdaq up since 1992?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“This is right when things started to open up. Dang said to be rich is glorious. Barton Biggs said he is overfed in China. And the Hang Seng went to 12,000. That was in 92. Well, the Hang Seng is at $18,000 now. So it's gone up 50%.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's socialism You know what I mean? And his crony Not free marketism, right? It was with the internet stuff and those stocks did very, very well for a while until they stepped in and threw Jack Ma out of the country or whatever the hell they did, right? And then they all came back down, 10 cent and all those stocks, right? While it was free. Were gray, but then the government stepped in and said, okay, enough's enough, right? I'm not a big believer in long term investor in China. Look, I have a lot of friends that are Chinese and I love them. Great people, but I personally would not be a long-term investor in China, not a believer. And Hong Kong, you know, when I was in Hong Kong. There in 1989, 1990, or something like that. 92, the Hang Seng was at 12,000.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, it is. After 30 years, yeah. I don't really have a big view there. I don't trade those markets. I'm not a big believer and never have been a big believer. And I lived in Asia for a long time and I lived in Hong Kong for a long time. And I've never been a big believer in China. And that's not to say that Chinese stocks haven't had times where they've gone up a lot. You know what I mean? I do not think that China is a great long-term investment personally. After having observed firsthand how business is done there.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I mean, at some point, all the money in the world will go that way. Although, maybe that's where we are going. Maybe all the money in the world is going for them. They're like Skynet, man. Literally, they're like Skynet at this point.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, and I want to correct myself so the year-by-year revenue increase was 3.6 times, so an increase of 260%. So only 260%. But yeah, I mean, I don't think they're going to continue to grow 260% year over year, but they only grow.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's outrageous. What business has gross mortgages of 75? Much less a business that's doing $30 billion a quarter in revenue. It's outrageous. And people want to make the bearish argument that that has to come down. And it probably does, right? But again, who doesn't know that, you know? Is that not already discounted in that that hasn't come down? We'll find out. But again. Think that that's the place to be short. You want to be short, be sure. I wouldn't be short that, like I said, there's got to be a million things you'd be short before you were short that.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Certainly different, you know what I mean? These companies are Rockefeller had to have all kinds of money spent on whatever oil rigs and all this stuff. These guys are on the internet, man. It costs nothing.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“26 billion dollars in a quarter. You know what I mean? Like, these are numbers, I don't remember if it was you I was talking through about this at one point, but Think Rockefeller died. And when he died, he was apparently the richest man on the planet. He had what they equate to the equivalent. $28 billion when he died. The man who whatever ran the oil business and all these other businesses, right? All while America was grown. $28 billion is what he died with. There was one day where Facebook went up X amount after earnings. Zuckerberg made $28 billion that day. That's the world we live in, man. You know what I mean? These numbers are freaking outrageous. They're outrageous. And does that mean it's speculative and it's bubble and all that? I don't know, but.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The Shitty stock, or at least company, is going up the most. You say what you want about NVIDIA stock. You can tell me it's overvalued. You can tell me it's overbought. You can tell me it's over everything You can't tell me that's a shitty company.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because then you got nothing left to go up, do you? Right, everything goes up. What's left to go up? You know, also that's. Also, that's sort of the contrarian fate at this point, but I would not trade it based on bread. I have no doubt that if the market is going to top at some point, it will top after some weak breath. I'm sure it will. But the weak breath to go on for two years. How does that help? And it already, in fact, has been going on for two years, right? And the market's essentially on highs here, so are pretty close. So how has that helped us? I don't think that that's helped us, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I know that Can go back and look at some pretty historic market tops and see that breath had been declining going into those market tops. Okay, the 60s, right? When we went 68 or whatever the market top, then it didn't come back to 82. And for the last couple years, the breath argument was there, right? Going into the 87 crash, the breath was weakening, right? We know that. That's problem number one is that we know it. People have been talking about this breath argument now for as long as they've been talking about the yield curve argument now, right? Again, discounting mechanism, right? Personally, I think that once the breath actually does pick up, that will be the top.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Being right about an opinion or a view that is non-tradable in order to monetize that, you have to then express a view that's based on the previous view on an asset class. And that is basically a fancy word for it is basis trade. So for example, if you think that the Federal Reserve would have cut way less than was priced at the beginning of this year, but you wanted to express a view on stocks, then you said, oh, interest rates up. That means stocks down. You would have lost money by shorting stocks. Of course, you can trade interest rate futures. Yeah, being right is way easier than being the market. Jason, just on the view of the stock market, you don't trade individual stocks. You trade futures and stock market indices. But when it comes to breadth in terms of the S&P 500, how many stocks are up on the year, do you have any views at all on that? I'm just looking, for example, that 200 stocks of the S&P 500 are down on the year while the S&P 500 is up 12% on the”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I didn't invent this. I mean, good luck and all these people. They all say it, they know it. It's pretty damn obvious, right? Means nothing for where the market's going at anytime shorter time frame, maybe even a longer time frame, right? So that's the point. It's not about. Thinking about this stuff better than other people because you're never going to do that, right? It's about making money no matter what.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“How'd that do for you? I mean, that's the only thing that matters. There's no futures contract on GDP growth. I got everything right from the market, except the market means you got everything wrong, right? So you may even be able to predict the macro, but the question is, what's discounted in? What are other people thinking, right? And that's where the whole discounting mechanism is the whole point of this all, right? There's nothing I'm certainly not the first one to come up with this whole idea of, you know, the government is screwed and they spent too much money and they're in too much debt. We all freaking know this story, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You might even be able to predict the Mac. Right here, people say it all the time. Well, I got everything right except the market.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Where would that get me? Where would I be right now? I'd be broke. I would have been broke a long time ago if I had been doing that, right? So that's what I mean by, I think it's great. It's all great. I love talking this stuff. I love talking about macro. I find it extremely interesting. Economics and, you know what I mean? I love it. I think it's super interesting. It has zero to do with the trades that I have on. Zero, right? Sometimes I like to build it in my head. I put these trades on because I have a process that I trade. And therefore, I like to picture a macro thing that will support those trades working, right? Might help me sleep at night. But at the end of the day, if the trade's wrong, I get stomped out. I'm out. You know, I mean, I could care less what I think about the macro and all that stuff, right? That's what winning trading is about, right? Not the other stuff, because you're not going to predict the macro.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Because now they get married to it here. I think that the Whole thing's a Ponzi scheme, and that the dollar is a fiat piece of crap and it's going to zero. Okay, I think that. Great. So now I have to start shorting the dollar and shorting everything. You know what I mean? And like I say, I could have thought that since Reagan, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a great analogy because it's exactly right. I'm a Dolphin fan. I don't really bet football anyway, but I would never bet on a dolphin game, right? Because I know that I am biased. They break my heart even without me betting on them. So I don't need it. But that's exactly right. It's not about what you want to happen. It's not about what you believe is going to happen. It's not about what you think is going to happen. It's about making money no matter what happens. That's what this game is. And that's. Where people fail, you know, that's where people. I think as soon as somebody says the words I think, I'm like, okay, you're done. Know you're done, you're done. Stop thinking. Don't trade, fade, we like to say.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not going to lose money just because I might think something. That's the whole point, right? One of our mantras is be wrong, make money, right? This game is about making money. This is the biggest thing I try to get through people's heads and try to get them to believe, right? This game is not about being right. This game is about. Making money, right? I'd rather be wrong. I'm happy to be wrong every day of the week if I can make money every day of the week, right? That's what this is about. And that's where I think why people lose money is because they're trying to be right. Like you say, they're Nick fans, right? And so they're going to bet on the Knicks.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, that it's like a successful sports gambler who in his heart he has his macro thesis is that the Knicks are going to win because he's from New York and he loves the Knicks, but he's too good of a sports gambler to actually bet on the Knicks. So he's going to bet on the Pacers. You know, in the same way your macro thesis is somewhat bearish and somewhat oriented towards an endgame, a Doom thing, but you're too good of a trader to actually trade based on that.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The best of the best, man. They're in the Baron's roundtable for crying out loud, right? So, anyway, make your point again, what were you saying about the gambling thing? I was liking that. Oh.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're up less than 2%, okay? So you can't tell me that, yes, they're up. Did they make money? Yes, they made money. But that's because they're long only and the stock market's up 12%, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's exactly right, Disney. No, you've been doing this a long time. You're starting to get it. No, that's exactly right. Disney, right? All the ones that they were talking about all year, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You're lone only, but the stock market's making 9% a year and you're making five, right I mean, look, I just did a video last week. We did a thing this year where we're tracking a bunch of portfolios that came out at the beginning of the year. The barons roundtable, right? These are the smartest of the smart, okay, 24 picks. They did 25 total picks. One of them was an international stock. We threw it out. We just took 24 domestic stocks, right? What do you think those 24 equally weighted if you put an equal amount of money into each one of those 24 stocks? What do you think your portfolio is up this year?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, but You're a long only investor, you make money in the stock market over time because it goes up over time But if you're a long only investor, you're underperforming the stock market. So that's where you're losing, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Dead, and that is what's going to happen, in my view, because they're going to go back to the same idea. They're going to go back and try and print money and deficit spend. That works when you've built up a surplus, then you can do that, right? This whole thing is predicated on this government debt now. Since oh wait, the whole thing is predicated on this, right? Everything it's all predicated on. And it's like I say it's fine. As long as it works, but when it stops working, there is no out at that point, right? There's nobody to bail the government out. There's nobody to bail the Fed out. Think it's very dangerous. I don't want to make the whole bear porn case, like you said. I'm against that. I don't like it. I think it's stupid. I think it's what makes people miss out on investing their money and misses out on them making wealth.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“1990s and other countries have an issue of interest rates go up during a recession, but that has not been the case of the US historically. But if that does happen, and I'm not predicting it is, yeah, that could be an issue.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT