YouSaid · the spoken record

Jason Shapiro

lines on the record: 109
first: 2024-05-31
most recent: 2024-05-31
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“The Fed right now is tight in terms of quantitative tightening and at least neutral, maybe tight interest rates, 5.3% wherever it is. But yeah, the government is still running a US government still running a large fiscal deficit, which in an expansion to run a fiscal deficit would be considered pro-cyclical. So rather than running a huge deficit because you have a recession and then running a surplus or a less big deficit when you have a boom, an expansion, yeah, US is definitely running a large fiscal deficit when the economy is not in a recession. I think the issue would be if interest rates don't go down in a recession. For the US, they normally do because when there's a recession, people get laid off, people sell their stocks and they buy bonds and inflation falls off a cliff and people buy bonds. I mean, that's just what they do. And, you know, Thailand and then.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Capitalism has become right. And it's fine. That was always kind of the idea of the government backstop, right? You go into recession. Okay, the government spends money to pull us out of recession, goes into deficit, right? They can use their balance sheet. Go into deficit, get us out of recession. And then when we have growth, pay back that deficit, right, and move on. But they don't do that anymore, right? Now we have a problem. They go into deficit. Things get better. And they go into more deficit. That's just not that. I'm sorry, that can't work, man. It cannot work. It's impossible. It's impossible for that to work. Can it work for a period of time? Of course it can work for a period of time. Can't work forever”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So when those people are doing that, I don't want to do that. I want to do the other thing, right? And that's where I think the dangers. And like I say, the real danger is if this. Once this starts, if and when this starts, I think that it's going to get, it has the potential to get very, very bad because I just don't see the way out. The way out is to print money. How are you printing money in a when you already have an inflation problem? Like I don't get it. Powell even said it a few weeks ago. He said, we want to cut the balance sheet. That we can build it back up again when we need it, right? He's telling you what they're gonna do, they're addicted to this now. This is what it's become. This is what.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now buying industrial companies are now buying materials, are now buying energy, which I think is pretty easy to argue is our growth equities, not growth equities, but GDP growth.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, that's going to be a steep interview to bear steepeners or bull steepener. You know, it can happen in a whole bunch of different ways, right? Or it can just sit here and do nothing, obviously. But I remember JGB's, people were shorting JGBs for 15 freaking years, right? And they would have like a big down day and everybody would freak out. This is it. This is it. This is it. And then it never went anywhere for 15, 20 years, right? We could just be doing that as well. Everyone always thinks there has to be this massive move in things, right? And then it just does not, it's not true. But again, Slowly shifting this way as everyone is slowly shifting that way. The same people that were so sure assured us that there was going to be a recession last year.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know what the narrative is on that. You might be right. The only narrative I hear about the yield curve every day is how. The longest it's ever been inverted, and you know that whole thing. We've been hearing that. It was the longest it's ever been inverted eight months ago, and now it's eight months down the line, right? Maybe it just stays that way. Who knows, right? And the 530s relationship can.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That would mean that the market is pricing in a further inversion or for the market to stay inverted. And for that reason, your contrarian view is to steepen. Even though I think the narrative is steepened because it always steepens.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And this gets into macro stuff that may or may not come true, but you would expect in a rate cut environment if we do start to get, and I've been anti-rate cut all year, by the way, right? And I'm just slowly, has everybody starting to go that way? Obviously, I'm starting to go this way, right? They're not all totally there yet. And so I'm not all totally there yet, right? But as they're going this way, I'm going the other way, right? We're meeting somewhere in the middle of the arc right now. But if there were to start being rate cuts, in fact, then one would think that the curve would start to... Had a good chance of happening. It's not that the positioning then drives it, it's that once it starts because of the positioning, it can start to happen pretty quickly because everybody starts getting squeezed and taken out of those positions.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They are super short the short end. Five years and in people are very short. They've kind of gotten a little bit, I wouldn't call them long, but a hell of a lot less short in the long end. Would imply some kind of steepening coming up, right? Which you would expect, I think.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I think that the tape has been pretty weak for everything except for NVIDIA. Including Metals and stuff like that. Yeah, I'm not in love with the market here. Look, it will either go up or down. But I don't think that there's great risk reward here How I like to look at it. I like to look at things in terms of risk reward. I don't see great risk reward here. Whereas whenever when the world is looking at recession and the positioning is showing that everybody is massively short, that's great risk reward, right? When everyone's giving up on recession and positioning while not super long is more neutral, that's different risk reward to me by definition. So that's kind of where I think we are in the stock market. Different risk reward, not great risk reward here.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All went down on that day, right? So I just think it's showing, again, I don't like to get too bearish. I don't like people to get bearish because bearish stocks, as I've said a million times, is just the worst trade ever invented, right? It costs more money, more people, more money than any trade I know of, right? But that's really not a great, I don't think the tape has been great since then.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“All three of those was a situation where the stock gapped up after earnings and then failed and went down, right? And that proved to be a temporary high for the stock, not for very long, but a temporary high. So I feel like everybody was thinking the same thing going into this one because that's what they do. They always like to look at last time. And so they figured, well, let's short it before because it's going to go down after, and then they got squeezed and it just kept going up. But the rest of the market didn't go up, right? Even the rest of the stocks that go with that SMCI and all these other things.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I know That's the stock market things almost down 2,000 points from the high SPs off highs and Nasdaq, which is more in media, but was off highs. It was amazing to me how many things I thought NVIDIA Day was a really interesting day, Nvidia Earnings Day. Because clearly you didn't want to short the stock market pre NVIDIA earnings, right? And the NVIDIA earnings came out great, because we all know, and Nvidia went up, right? The previous earnings reports came out great, and Nvidia failed. A reversal day on the earnings thing and kind of did nothing for a few months and then made new highs later, right? Whereas on this one, it went up on the year and just kept going up.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“NVIDIA's on a new all time high. I mean, it might be down a little bit, but today, but it was on a new all-time high yesterday. Dow is”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Which I'm sure you saw because everybody I knew was shorting Nvidia. And they were doing it for one reason and one reason only because it went up a lot. That was why they were shorting it, right? Which is just the worst reason. I don't think we're seeing that anymore, right? I think that's gone away, right? No one's doing that anymore because anyone who's doing that. Gone bust So, those people who are not around anymore, no one's shorting NVIDIA anymore. So clearly that means the risk reward has changed, right? So I wouldn't be aggressively long thing here personally based on how I look at stuff, but even so, I wouldn't, I also wouldn't short it.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Futures trader, but second of all, I wouldn't, you know, if I had done stocks, then maybe I would know more about it. You know, my knowledge of it It is very secondhand, you know what I mean? Like I said, I don't really understand what AI even is, but I do understand that people are buying the crap out of their stuff. But is that discount it in? Is it overvalued relative to that? I really don't know because I don't spend enough time looking at it. I did spend a lot of time last year. Making videos begging people to stop shorting NVIDIA.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Top is in. I mean, look, am I neutral, but I could never buy that stock here. But I would never short it here either, right? Yeah. So, I guess that puts me at neutral. We're going to short something. There's a thousand things I would short before I ever short NVIDIA.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Me too. I got called. Didn't you hear me say NVIDIA? I get called out all the time for saying Nvidia. People are like, moron calls us thing Nvidia. I'm like, okay, I guess I got to figure out what the real name is. I'm in the same place. That is a good sentiment check. Now we both pronounce it correctly.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I really don't. And that's not to say if they start, look, it's gone up the most. So if the stock market goes down, maybe it can go down the most. That can happen. Okay. But from a risk-reward point of view, if you can't come up with a better short than that. I think you're doing you're in the wrong business, man. There's got to be a company that's worse than that, right? That has to be. Somewhere out there, there's got to be some company that's a better short than that. Fundamentally or technically or however the hell you want to look at the market.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, and Nvidia could definitely collapse in value, but I think for a short, you want it to be where it could collapse in value, but it's very unlikely that it will spike up. And to me, I think the odds that NVIDIA just continues to rip higher, it's definitely a possibility. So that means it's not a desirable short candidate.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not saying NVIDIA can't go down, but there's got to be better shorts in the world than that is all I'm saying. You want to be short something, there's got to be a better short than that.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“What can you say? It's the hugest money making machine ever, right? I mean, the guys are selling picks and shit. And this is nothing that nobody doesn't know at this point, right? But I mean, they're selling picks and shovels to the future and their clients are the biggest money machines in the history of mankind, right? So I don't know what AI even is. I don't know what it's going to become. I don't even know if it's real. But what I do know is these people believe that it's the future. These people believe that it's where they have to be investing a lot of their money, right? And they're tripping over each other. Think about if you're sitting here and your clients are Microsoft, Google, Apple, you know, I mean, and they're tripping over each other to buy your products. That's a dream come true. You're going to short that idea?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't know why, man. I think they're all just reading from the same script. I really do. I see 10 people a day get on TV and say that, and they all say it in the same order. I don't know why.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the psychology clearly is, well, I'm not going to buy stuff that's up 500% since I went to cash, right? I'm going to buy where I see value, you know. And that has consistently, I hear it every day. Industrials, materials, energy. And for some reason, they all say it in that order. I don't know if they're all reading the same script or what. No one says energy, materials, industrials. They all say industrials, materials, energy.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, the MAG 1, Nvidia. And you say, so a lot of people who missed the rally have got, they don't want to be chasing the trade, and so they have piled into the things that didn't work as much, like energy or industrials.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I don't like to say I'm bearish. Because I don't know which way it's going to go, but I think the risk reward is at the very least to not be long. You want to play short, you know, short's a whole dangerous game that most people shouldn't be doing in anything Certainly wouldn't be long, that stuff.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, completely. Well, it's probably right that it's a Ponzi scheme, but the Ponzi scheme has been able to go on for this whole time and it could go on for another 40 years. Like I said, I might be sitting here telling my grandkids on my deathbed, right? The same story, right? So you don't trade off of this type of stuff. You can't say trading off a macro view is. Just dangerous as hell”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Know he's got these companies that make billions of dollars a quarter and they all feel like they have to trip over each other to spend those billions on his stuff so that they can keep up with each other. The next 50 basis points in 10 years make a single difference to something like that? Clearly not, right? So you're right. I'm begging people don't like get crazy short stuff because Jason Shapiro says that it's a Ponzi scheme because guys like Jason Shapiro have been pointing out that it's a Ponzi scheme since Reagan and it's been completely wrong.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People are like so focused on this what the next 50 basis point move in 10 years is, right? And that might mean something to all the stuff that they're investing in, right? These industrial names and all that. This 50 basis points and the 10 years mean a single thing to Nvidia? I can't imagine it means even the slightest thing to a company that's growing and has margins like that whose clients, you think about who their clients are the biggest companies, the biggest cash generators in the history of mankind, right? This guy from NVIDIA must go to sleep. I always say giggling every night.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, you should, you should, I can't, okay, because of my trading style and my return stream that I offer to my clients is not that, okay, but you should. There's no downside to it because So, what if everything blows up? So, what? So your stocks go down or whatever, your investments go down. It's not going to make a difference anyway because it's all going to be worth nothing anyway. So you might as well ride, like you say, the fiat Ponzi scheme. Absolutely. Absolutely. I wouldn't necessarily do it in the metals, but certainly sure, right other than the Nasdaq stocks, you know what I mean? And ride it in NVIDIA and all this stuff. Absolutely, you know. I've been saying all along that.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yes, yes. It becomes part of where we are in the cycle. You know, okay, so bonds are, because we might start to see the recession come now. So bonds are a buy. But then once the recession happens and they start printing money, then bonds are probably going to become a sell at that point.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Probably, yeah. I think of all things, you know, stocks are not necessarily the biggest short based on it. And I'm not shorting stocks here and I don't even have, I don't see that stocks are so crowded long or anything that they're giving me a setup to get short. They're not. One could certainly argue that if that happens, I mean, you saw it in Venezuela a few years ago, right? Venezuela had huge inflation numbers, you know, and stocks went up like five times or something like that, right? Because they're an asset. If your money is becoming worthless, you got to put it into something, right? At least you put it into a company that's real, you know, that has real assets and has real stuff, then that might be worth something. There is that argument. I'm not saying short the crap out of stocks on all this, but.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“An extent that nobody's ever seen before, it's my view. So that's why I'm constantly on the lookout for the signs of that, such as Lower rates today and commodities can't rally. Lower rates today and the stock market can't rally, right? These start to be the signs. And we'll probably get a lot of false signals before it actually happens. You know, you get a lot of that too, but it's definitely something to be to keep in mind here. People have completely given up on the idea 2022 is a distant memory at this point, right? I think there's danger out there. I would not be super really aggressive here”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just seems inevitable to me now. I have said that there's a chance I'll be sitting on my deathbed talking to my grandchildren and saying, don't trust the US dollar. It's a fiat currency and it's a Ponzi scheme. You know, they'll be sitting there rolling their eyes. You know, here goes grandpa again, right? People have been talking about this since the Reagan years, and it's been completely wrong to do that. So you don't trade off of this to me, but I just think every day this inevitability becomes more and more pronounced. And it's all fine. You know, everything's all fine as long as it's working, right? As long as there's no recession and all that, and they don't have to do this, it's all fine. When that day comes, it's not going to be fine and it's going to be not fine.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are we there now? I don't know. The markets will tell us, you know. And they'll tell us when this happens, if we should go into recession and they print money to get us out of it, and that doesn't work, right? And the dollar starts going down. So it's a huge risk out there. I never say something's definitely going to happen”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Who bails them out? I mean, how does the central money? Okay, it's great. They print money. I get it. Print money, print money, print money. Eventually, that doesn't work. And that's why I'm saying we don't know the timing, but eventually that doesn't work. As a Zimbabwe, if that works, right? And I know the US is not Zimbabwe. I get it. Okay. But it doesn't matter, right? There are certain natural laws to the world that come through anything, physics, economics, anything, right? Supplied demand. If you print eventually too many dollars, eventually people are going to reject them. And there's a limit to everything, including how much money the US government can print”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“A much bigger problem. Who I understand the government bails out the banks. Who bails out the government? Know there is no one right”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They can extend it longer just means that when it goes bad, it's going to be that much worse. And again, I'm not saying this is today. I'm not saying go out and short everything and run for the hills today. But this, that is the end game. And so it could be today, right? It could be today. It could be 10 years. It could be 20 years, but keeping an eye on it is important because I just have no doubt in my mind that there's no way out of this cycle right now, you know. Everyone talks about how, oh, well, you can't have an 08 again because the bank balance sheets are so much stronger now. Yeah, because all the debt that the banks were guilty of taking on back then that blew them up has never been transferred to government balance sheets, right?”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rates can't go down because of the inflation. Now we go into a recession. So what are they going to do to get us out of that recession that they can't have because they owe so much money they can't have a recession? Well, they're going to print money again, right? Which then causes inflation, which means they can't lower rates. You know what I mean? It's like a cycle, a circle. It's a Ponzi scheme, essentially to me, is what it is. It's a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi schemes run by individuals are pretty short-lived. A Ponzi scheme run by a government that owns a printing press can clearly last a lot longer, right? We don't know how and when that will end, but it will end. And when it ends, it's going to end badly. The fact that”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So that's what they do now. That's the new thing now. They will just print money. And you got to remember, oh, nine, when they did it, no one thought it was a good idea and it worked, right? Now everybody believes that that's that always works. If and when we get to the point, if and when we actually go into a recession, and then they decide that the way out of that is to print more money. In other words, they printed money. It caused inflation, right? They raised rates.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We have got to a point, it seems, in economic history here where You can't have a recession, right? The consequences. Are just too dire at this point. There's too much debt out there, right? And you just can't have a recession. So what do you do anytime there's weakness? They just print money, right? Lower rates, print money, whatever you want to call it. They try to create more liquidity. This all started, you know, after the 08 thing, right? Where capitalism essentially failed. And so governments took over, right? So they are in charge now. And this whole MMT idea, right? You can print as much money as you want. It's not inflationary. Well, we found out that that's not true, right? Inflation got up to whatever it was, 9% at one point after all that money printing post-COVID.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Central banks have really painted themselves into a major corner and there is no way out. You can delay it because you're a central bank. But I really think that it's bad. I think it's, I don't think I've ever seen one of the things I wrote a couple weeks ago in my thing was I called it the biggest shit show in central banking history. And I truly believe that. This says nothing about timing, but there is to me an inevitability about the endgame. to this all so”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Is really as obvious as could possibly be here to me. And it ain't good. And that doesn't mean that the markets can't go up. And that doesn't even mean that this, let's say, not good macro thing happens now, or it could be a year or years from now. But I just feel very strongly that Central banks have just painted themselves in a corner. And when, and then there's going to be hell to pay. There's going to be real, real health to pay, right? And I'm not saying sell everything right now and put everything in gold and, you know, get your guns and make sure you have fresh water and all that. Now, I'm not saying do that now because that's silly. But I think that you have to keep it in mind that.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Energy, which are all theoretically macro wise growth investments, right? Economic growth investments. So if that's not going to work, right, which it already is not working, right? The Dow stuff is way underperforming in the last few weeks, right? Then again, that can build, can turn into building. That macro view of okay, now recession is coming out, right? Metal's down, bonds up, industrial stocks down equals narrative recession is coming again, right? So that's where I kind of think that we are heading. And it's always a bad. Bet to be short stocks, I think. Not always, but most of the time. So I'm not really saying, hey, short the hell out of stocks here. But I do think that And this is not a trading thing. Okay. Again, like I say, macro will kill you, but to me, the macro thing.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Rally, interest rates are going to come down. And let's say metals are going to come down. You can quickly see that suddenly the macro narrative will start switching back again to recession, which people gave up on in my view about two, two and a half months ago. People gave up on the recession thing, right, that they held on to for so long. That was all given up on. And funny enough, they have all decided to, and I put this on some videos that I did, but because they had this recession view, they were underinvested, they were overcached. They gave up on the recession view. They had to put money to work, and they don't put money to work in things like NVIDIA or Dell or the things that are leaving because they don't want to see us chasing. So they'll put money into things that are lagging. So they were all talking about it for the last few weeks. Where do they want to put money to work? Industrials, materials.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Public person. Got it. Whose trades we actually follow and track, right? And he's just horrible. Not to say he's never gotten a trade, right? He has, but he's horrible. So he got short bonds yesterday. And he likes to view himself as a big macro guy. I think personally, I love building macro narratives. I think it's fun. I think it's interesting. I think it's great to talk about. I also think it's probably the biggest money loser that there is, right? Because by the time I can build a macro narrative or you can build a macro narrative or that guy can build a macro narrative, everybody else has already got it. Like you're not coming up with anything new, you know, and so therefore it's discounted in the market. The market's a discounting mechanism. And that's why you get screwed the other way. So this guy did short bonds yesterday, right on the lows. And so I think that there's a good chance that bonds are going through rally. So again, if bonds are going to...”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“People have now concluded that they wanted to buy them because they thought rates were going to come down. Now they're concluding the rates are not going to come down. So they've started to sell them. And I would say probably the single worst trader that I know of got short bonds yesterday on the close.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When it should be acting well, that's when there tends to be a problem. That's when sort of a good risk reward trade tends to happen at that point. Because now it's not reacting well when it should. And you have all these longs and suddenly they become trapped longs and they start getting stopped out. And there can be a big move the other way. And I think the metals are in that position here. And if we back then into a macro view, let's just say that happens and the metals are going to start to come down. Okay, well, then what are people going to start to conclude on that? Copper loses 20% well. Now people are going to start saying, oh, Dr. Copper is saying recession is coming and, you know, it can all sort of flow through into the whole macro. Narrative thing, right? On top of that, bonds.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Have a lot of liquidation that can come, you know, stop start getting hit and moving averages start going getting hit and people get stopped, stop, stop and all that stuff starts to go down. And you have a similar situation in gold and silver as well in terms of crowdedness, not as much as copper, but they're certainly very crowded. That's the most crowded stuff that I see in the markets right now is the metals. Which is why I think that they are not reacting anymore. You know, that's what you want to do. It's one thing if they're crowded. You can't just short it because they're crowded because things are crowded. First of all, can work for a while. And second of all, they can stay crowded for a long time. And third of all, they can get more crowded, right? Just because a billion people have bought copper doesn't mean that a billion and a half people can't buy copper, you know, at some point. But when it starts to act poorly,”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Month is now losing money. This is the longest you talk about I like when everybody's long on looking to get short when everyone's short I'm looking to get long this is the longest in the futures markets that they've ever been in the history of the copper contract does that mean it can't go up no it doesn't mean it can't go up you can get more longs right But it doesn't make the risk reward very good.”
2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT