YouSaid · the spoken record

Jason Shapiro

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109
first
2024-05-31
most recent
2024-05-31
sittings or episodes
1
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podcast

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  1. “Copper has become the favorite trade on the planet. There are people that don't even know what copper is at this point. Not that I necessarily do, but people that really don't get involved in these trades that are now involved in copper. People are coming on TV every day saying copper is the no-brainer trade for the last two, three weeks. That's become the thing. Basically, ever since Druken Miller came out and said he loved copper, we have people lining up about copper. It's become like the new AI trade. There has to be all this new electricity built, and that takes a lot of copper, and it's just a no-brainer trade. Well, copper's down. I don't know, 10% in the last week. Like I say, it's down, it's flat on the month now. Anyone who bought it.”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “Two weeks ago that copper was actually at all time highs. And that shocked me because two months ago it was very, very far from all time highs. So we had a miraculous meltup in copper and some other commodities over the past two months. And now they're falling a little bit from those highs. But what specifically is so worrisome to you that the market's selling off alongside commodities?”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Right, so bonds are very strong. Meanwhile, stocks are not up. And commodities are getting hit pretty badly. And copper's down almost 30%, silver is down almost 3%, crude's down 2.5%. Grains are down. So I don't think that that's a very good sign for the narrative, right? If the narrative of lower rates is going to be pushing this stuff up. Not that one day means everything, but we're starting to see, and I felt that we were starting to see starting last week a little bit of a change in the action there. So therefore, that makes me pretty. Cautious to neutral”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “There was a bed earnest report, but that was a Dow more DAO related thing. But I mean, the stock markets are down, all the commodities are getting crushed today. About a month ago, everybody decided we're going to this new super cycle long commodities, right? I don't think anybody realizes anybody who bought copper in the month of May is now losing money. Copper has become just the favorite trade, you know. And I can get into that in a second. The point is today, stocks and bonds are ripping because we had like a little bit of a weaker number that came out this morning”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “What from here? And I think we're going to have to see. For me, it's always a question of not me predicting what's going to happen, but rather how is the market going to react to what does happen, right? And I think that the key thing is the markets have to move higher should numbers like the PCE number tomorrow come out, you know, slightly weaker. The markets have to move higher on that. And if they can't, then I think there's trouble. Right. They have to continue to move higher on that. So let's see how that happens. First of all, let the PC come out weaker. We don't even know if that's going to happen, right? But if these numbers start to come out weaker, then the markets have to move higher. And today, you know, for example.”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Anything else? Bitcoin's pretty close to high, stock's pretty close to highs, housing, pricing prices close to highs, gold, silver, you know, all these things have been going up. That can't be a lack of liquidity by definition, right? But I think a lot of that's been now sucked out, both market-wise and also psychologically wise. Nobody really believes that there's six rate cuts coming. You know, people debate whether there's one or not at this point. So a lot of that's been sucked out. So the question becomes, you know.”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Then asset prices should go up. And my thought process was asset prices would go up and force the Fed's hand to think about raising rates. I don't think we've gotten to where they're talking about raising rates yet, but we have certainly come a long way from six rate cut expectations in January to now what's maybe one, right? And even some whispers of maybe they're going to raise. So that has kind of that idea has sort of been very much sucked out of the market. And I said price has obviously did go up. People are like, well, how do you know that there's too much liquidity? Are you looking at M2 or you're looking at this and that? I'm like, I'm just looking at the price of assets. Asset prices don't go up a lot when there's not liquidity. And you look at all these assets, stocks and”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “I think what has been driving assets, what's been sort of my narrative for most of this year, was my belief that interest rates were too low and therefore liquidity was very high and with liquidity being very high and a Fed that doesn't seem to want to raise interest rates to slow down that liquidity. Asset prices, I thought we're going to go up because of that. I mean, liquidity is what drives asset prices up if interest rates are too low. I can't prove that they're too low, but let's just say they were.”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “I'm pretty neutral. I'm pretty neutral. Which means that you have to be leaning bullish because the market over time has a tendency to go up. I'm certainly not bearish. I'm certainly not shorting here, but I'm not super bullish at the same time either, you know, I don't really think that there's a lot of edge going on right now.”

    2024-05-31 · Forward Guidance · Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now) · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT