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Jurrien Timmer

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2025-10-10
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2025-10-10
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  1. That markets go through cycles and it always comes back, not always quickly. But, you know, every time the market goes down twenty plus percent, it's like the end of the world. And it's like totally different from every other time. And this is like such a crisis. But then, you know, I've now been through like 12 bear markets in my career. And it's like, yeah, whatever. Like nothing shocks me anymore. Of course, I'm maybe in a better place because I've earned my wealth. I'm not still building it. But it's just, you know, take a step back, look at the bigger picture. Make sure your portfolio is where it should be in terms of risk and goals. And don't be your own worst enemy by selling at the bottom. Call someone, like have them talk you off the ledge first, you know?

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. He's the humblest guy you'll ever meet. And there is no room for big egos, like no matter how important you are. I have no time for that, right? So stay humble, don't figure out, don't think you've figured it all out at the age of 25. Be a learner and be ready to reinvent yourself. I've had to do it a number of times at Fidelity, either as planned or as not planned. And you just got to roll with the punches. And like I said, the first job I had, I was like the last job I was interested in, but I took it because it was the only job, you know.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. Be open-minded, be humble, the true heroes of mine in our business, including Ned Johnson. He's no longer with us, of course, was that just humility, right? I'll talk to Will Danoff, who runs $300 billion. I love him.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. That's my guilty pleasure on TikTok. It's a little food clips. And I don't even have to have the sound on. It's just because I kind of know what works with recipes. So I don't need a recipe, but I just need someone to visualize an approach. And so a lot of the things I cook today are from TikTok.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. Dimension of gas. But so all clad and the German knives, what's it called? Gustorf, I forget. And my go-to knife is a ten-inch chef's knife, not the really high one, but the medium one. So the medium one is... Thick enough to like smash on garlic. But not so thick that you don't feel connected. You don't have the road feel of the knife on the cutting board.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. I use the all clad. I have two places. I have a gas stove in Santa Barbara and an induction stove in Boston. You know, I came.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. We are binge watching the bear. So I'm an avid cook, you know, like I said, I run a food camp at Burning Man. And we tend to be late to shows, and then we just watch like four seasons. Yeah, the bears are great.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. Rock me on the water. It's just like, so it's fascinating to read about the things that we lived through as kids, as teenagers, but then like, yeah, you know, that was.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. Like a foot in each camp. Yeah. And so growing up, you know, formative years in the 70s in Aruba, but consuming American pop culture, right? We would sit down every night watching like, you know, wide world of sports and Mary Tyler Moore and all those shows.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. David Crosby. He had these groundbreaking TV shows, right? Because we were coming out of the straitjacket of the 60s conformists. Like no one dared to make a show that challenged the status quo. And then you had like Mash and Mary Tyler Moore owned the family. And then the movies like Taxi Driver. And I think I'm kind of Gen X, but on the border of Gen X and Baby Boom. I'm the same.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. And public today Room sort of, yes. So that was one, but the most interesting recent book I've read was it's called Rock Me on the Water. And it's a book about music, TV, and movies during the early 70s and how LA was like the epicenter of American culture. So you had like the Laurel Canyon folks of all the musicians

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. So I hate to admit it, but I don't read a lot of finance books because I'm very interested in having balance between what.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. The information was displayed semi log scales. The chart room has museum quality lighting, how you display data. And so he instilled that culture. We call it Kaizen kind of just gradually improving and having compounding isn't just for investing, right? It's just in our day-to-day stuff. You do something consistently right. It's going to make an impact. And when I look back at my 40 years, and I'm not going anywhere, but to me, that Kaizen has really played a role in my relationships, in my work. And I think a lot of that just came from him.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. By hand done by? It would be computer generated, but then because we don't want to print a whole new 40 foot sheet every week, you fill it in by hand. And just the oral tradition, the oral history. So he was looking at the chart and then he would say, okay, well, like, and he would go from right to left and say, okay, then, and we'd end up like in 1968 and he's telling me about the glamour stocks and this and that. And I'm like, wow, this is like gold, right? Like you don't, you know, literally. And so he would have this encyclopedic memory, but also just the way.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. And we were just poor overcharged. Like we have these huge charts on the wall, Florida ceiling, you know, like 40 foot wide, like a daily chart of whatever the Dow S&P.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. Definitely Ned Johnson Because when I came in to Fidelity in 95, I'd been in New York for 10 years, didn't really have mentors. And so he Fidelity has a very strong corporate culture, let's put it that way, and especially around the way we approach long-term investments. We're obviously a long-term investor. So he was like the last person I spoke to before I got hired. And then in those formative years, I worked in the chart room and I would spend hours per week with Ned. Like he would just come down.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. But it will naturally overshoot as the cycles always do. So that's kind of how I would measure it. So if the money supply goes to 30 trillion, gold and bitcoin could be 35 trillion and obviously gold is a large part of that. Bitcoin is about 2 trillion. And then you convert that to a price. But that's kind of how I think about the valuation side.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. The chart concluded that when the money supply grows too fast, gold takes market share. So hard money takes market share from soft money, from fiat money. And at certain extremes, like in the 70s and other periods, the 30s, the value of gold would go all the way up or beyond the value of M2. And so right now M2 is about 23 trillion gold plus Bitcoin is also about 23 trillion. So in that sense, it's come a long way to take that market share. And now it's a question of does M2 either globally or in the US continue to grow at an above average pace? So the average pace is about 6% nominal, about 2-3% real. So I do think a lot of the gains are in already.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. So, I once saw a chart that actually Paul Tutor Jones created. Speaking of fall, where he compared the above ground. Value of gold or the value of above ground gold and compared it to the value of M2. And they're trying to try.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. And so I think that's the story. So, and ironically, because Bitcoin has obviously come well after gold as a kind of a store of value hard money asset, in a way gold is kind of like where Bitcoin was 10 years ago or five years ago where, okay, Bitcoin's interesting, but I don't understand it. I don't feel like spending 100 hours on this. It's a bubble. It's a scam. It's a pet rock. And gold is like, if it keeps going the way it is, and I suspect it will, like the endowments are like, okay, like people are asking me about this. I need to like really figure out how do we, not how do we buy it. You can buy it, of course, but it's always been a dismissed asset. Let me put it that way.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. I think institutions do, right? So regular retail investors, as I call them, you can buy GLD or some other gold ETF and I own it in my portfolio. And so there, I think there it's part of the conversation. But when you think about Large endowments, institutional investors, even mutual funds. Like you need a special rapper in your mutual fund to own physical gold. Like you need to go to the SEC and get approval. And so gold has been sort of dormant for so long until recently that it's like, yeah, I don't really want to go through this trouble to buy something that doesn't have a cash flow, can't be valued, requires special regulatory approvals. Then all of a sudden it starts to run like it is now.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. One asset class, and we just talked about it that I think generally is seen as a sideshow. The way Bitcoin used to be, it's no longer a sideshow for sure, is actually gold. Because for

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  23. So, I want high sharp ratios or high sortino ratios and assets that are uncorrelated. And you get into the BCOM commodities. You get into gold. Bitcoin is not quite uncorrelated. But all the old strategies are uncorrelated. And so to me, that is sort of the next 60, 40

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  24. Tips high yield, markets or asset classes that are not negatively correlated, but they're not positively correlated as well. So when you look at kind of the sharp ratios versus the correlation not just to the 60, but especially to the 40, right? Because I want to hedge more against the 40 than the 60.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  25. But when bonds do poorly, galt really shines, no pun intended. And then you got to throw Bitcoin in there as kind of the wannabe exponential gold. And then other strategies like alternatives, right, managed futures, equity, long short, private credit, all of those kind of alpha rather than beta strategies.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  26. About the 60, like we can add more international in the 60, and like we were just discussing, but what do we do about the 40 if the 40 can be the cause of problems rather than the solution to problems? And especially if we end up with a higher term premium, then bonds are not going to be as safe as they used to be. So then I get into kind of, okay, I'm going to take some share from the bonds. It doesn't have to be 20, like again, this is not investment advice, but back at the envelope stuff. And, you know, maybe some cash strategies are more competitive if we're not going to go back to the zero interest rate days, which I don't think we are. Gold are the proven anti-bond over history, right? They don't produce a cash flow.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  27. And, like, what's not to like about that, right? During that time, inflation was like two and a half, so you got a very attractive, real return with really moderate volatility. But the whole premise of that paradigm was that the 40 was insurance against the 60. So the 60, of course, is always the anchor. That's where the compounding is. And the 40 would be your port in the storm. I think that's now changed. So 2022 obviously was a return to the old Fed model days where rising yields take the mojo out of the stock market to put it mildly. The good news is that bonds, of course, now are a viable asset. They generate a positive real yield, but they're correlation is now positive against equities instead of negative. So when I think about the post-60-40 world, I'm less worried.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  28. So I look at it. I call it the 60 2020. So the 60-40 paradigm worked like a charm, right, from the late 90s until the early 2020s. And 60% S&P, 40% Bloomberg ag. So the investment grade bond index. And you got a 9% Kager against the 9% VAL

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  29. Dividends Be concentrated in Europe. Yes. I think it's largely culture. It's just, you know, and Europe is more of a value market, right? So it's really like the banks are really running the show right now. And so the US, it's more the growthy stock. So they don't want to, so dividends are kind of like a sacred contract, if you will. Like it takes a lot for dividends to be cut. So I think Europe and Japan has just generally been more of a value-driven and the culture has been more, okay, we're going to earn so much and you're going to get that back as dividends. But especially the Japanese and also the Europeans are getting much more with the shareholder culture now in terms of unlocking value and returning those as buybacks. So they're starting to play it again.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  30. Yeah, and you see an equally robust payout ratio again of about 75%. So the rest of the world is really competitive now, despite the fact that this is such a MAG 7 heavy market. And so this is just a very exciting time because you can actually, you don't have to make that make or break binary decision. Like you're either in these big stocks or you're left behind. There are other places to get those returns down.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  31. Just the present value of future cash flows. But what's changed just in the last few years is that for EFA, again, which is the MSCI non-US developed index,

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  32. Yeah, so we were talking about earlier about there finally being a catalyst for non US stocks to compete with the MAG 7 driven US stock market. And so on the left I show the earnings line for the S&P, the payout, so that the share of earnings being returned quote unquote to shareholders. Shareholder yield as dividends and buybacks. And then at the bottom, you see the payout ratio, again, either as dividends in the yellow buybacks in the purple. And you can see the payout has risen very nicely, almost a double since five years ago. Payout ratio is about 75%. So very bullish fundamentals like you, you know, those fundamentals deserve a high PE, right? Because not only is the earnings growing, but they're being returned to shareholders, which of course is worth more than if you're not getting them back.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  33. Like, it's very unbalanced. The demand far exceeds the supply. And to me, this has been one of the important drivers for driving returns in the secular bull market. And there's no science that this is letting up. And so when we think about what inning is the secular bull market in, when is it going to end and why? This is one of the things I look at. It's just, you know, when you're retiring far more shares than you're issuing, it's like markets are going to go up, all else being equal.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  34. So, I think this is, and not a lot of people talk about this, but I think this is one of the fundamental drivers of the current secular bull market era. And so you can see on the chart I started the clock at the bottom in 09, which again, I believe is the start of the secular bull market. And I look at just the supply and demand of equities just from within the corporate America structure. So not investor flows, but how much were there in IPOs and secondary issues? And it's a couple of trillion. How much was share buybacks and how much was MA and share buybacks and MA have something in common in that it's corporates buying shares of other corporates and those shares get retired, right? So that's the demand for shares. And what you see is that if you look at the supply demand ratio,

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  35. The Fed was actually doing a lot of the heavy lifting by putting those bonds, or not those bonds, but putting bonds on its balance sheet. So you could see the rise in debt is largely accommodated by an expanding balance sheet. Since that time, since 2022, the Fed's gone into quantitative tightening mode, where it's shrinking its balance sheet, but the debt just keeps going up. So the debt is now up about $14 trillion in the last five years and only about two and a half of that is sort of been absorbed by the Fed. So I put two and two together and it's like, okay, if that purple line at the top just keeps going up, who's going to buy this, right? Who's going to buy the debt? And will the Fed be forced back into playing a bigger role in kind of mopping up that supply? And that's the fiscal dominance theme.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  36. So, what this chart shows, and it's a very simple chart, but I think it speaks volumes, is that, you know, during COVID, we kind of, I think, entered the fiscally dominant era where debt financing or deficit spending becomes a very major tool, which is definitely different from the financial crisis when we actually had austerity after the financial crisis with the Tea Party movement. Now we have the opposite. And in the initial years after that fiscal expansion started,

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  37. For an indexer, I guess it doesn't matter for an active investor, it does, but even for an indexer it does, because the largest stocks are getting bid up whether they deserve it or not. Of course, they're large because they deserve to be generally, but it shows you how narrow the market has been during this cycle. And so it's just a way of describing kind of where we are. So you got the cyclical on the top and the bottom speaks more to the secular.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  38. Market is as concentrated as it was in the late 90s and the early to mid 70s, which was the original Nifty 50 period. And so, you know, for

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  39. Turns red. Yeah, and so what the top part of the chart shows are the market cycles, so the green are the bull markets, of course, cyclical bull markets, the red are the bear markets, and you can see as we talked about earlier, it's pretty rare for a 50% drawdown. There's only been really a couple of them. And so what this shows is that the current bull market as strange or as unusual as it has felt for many people actually is pretty garden variety, right? 88% gain over 35 months. So it's pretty average. But then when you look at the bottom panel, it shows the relative, the percentage of stocks outperforming the index. And now you see something pretty unusual, something we've only seen a few times in history. And that is, of course, the concentration effect of the MAG 7. Then before that, the Fangs. And it is the...

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  40. So their policy was we need to see the whites in the eyes of inflation before we raise rates. And by the time the whites of the eyes were visible, it was like too late. Inflation was at five going to nine. It's a nuanced thing. But again, 3% is not going to be the end of the world. It just means bombs have a term premium and stock market is still fine. Maybe the PE is like 17 instead of 19, but like, you know, if earnings are doing heavy lifting, it doesn't matter. But again, it's like what will it take for the Fed to actually say that? Or will they ever say it? Or will we just have a post-Powell fed that says, you know, instead of neutral being inflation plus 100, neutral is inflation. And, you know, so they are at three instead of four or something.

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  41. If you go to the left till deflation, there is really no correlation. Nobody likes deflation. So from that angle two and a half is not a problem, even three is not a problem. I think the Fed worries that if they were to ever admit that inflation expectations could get unanchored. But they went to the AIT thing, right? The average inflation targeting. And actually that actually prevented them from raising rates when they

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  42. That matters, and that distribution is interesting because obviously the higher the inflation rate goes, the lower the P, which makes perfect sense. Because if inflation goes up, bond yields go up, then the safe asset is very competitive with the risky asset. So why take the risk?

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  43. There's nothing magical about two. Like if you go back 150 years again, the average inflation rate is like 3%, 2.8. If you look at a distribution of equity PEs and the inflation rate, the sweet spot is sort of one to four. So, whether you're at three or two, like for the stock market, doesn't matter like 10 to 2,

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  44. But beef prices have run away. So I think a lot of it has to do with that because people are employed. Wages are competitive right now. And employment rates 4.3%. But I think it's just that cost of living, it just kind of like grinds. And it's been grinding for five years now.

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  45. But during the 50s and 60s, inflation was super low, 2%, then you to the second half of the 60s, it started to creep up. And then it came back down. But in order for the average to be at 2%, if you go to 6%, you then need to go below 2% for the average to be 2%. And we haven't done that. We went from two to nine to 2.8. And we never went below two. And if we, for some reason, get another upswing and we're at three and four, like that five-year number is now going to be at 4, 5%. And I think that's what's driving a lot of this. It certainly did during COVID. And it's things like food, right? So, you know, like the top.

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  46. That COVID spike, that has not been unwound. And that's one of the things I worry about because not to make a comparison to the 1970s, which obviously was the great inflation. Structural and long-term.

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  47. Really useful. Yeah, and I spend time on both coasts, and I was at a dinner party in Montecito, California a few weeks ago, and people were like, how can everything look so good when we're like at the end of the world type of thing? And then I'll be, you know, in some other place and it'll be the total opposite. But I think a lot of the sentiment data are still driven by the inflation data. Like obviously the inflation rate has come down to 2.8%.

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  48. Do a barbell of MAG 7 and non US stocks, then you can play the dollar with dollar weakening story. You can get equally good fundamentals for a 15 PE instead of a 24 PE. And to me, that's a good thing right now.

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  49. Equal or superior, or at least competitive fundamentals at a fraction of devaluation. And that is a good deal. And so finally, that part is working where the pond that we're fishing from is now broader. And for me, kind of it's a barbell strategy. I don't want to be short at the MAC 7 because they can get bigger and you don't want to miss out on that. But rather than going down cap in the US,

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  50. We don't hear a lot, but the buybacks are at record highs. They're 300 billion over the last 12 months. And the payout ratio is 75% for the S&P. But guess what? The payout for IFA, which is non-U.S. developed stocks, the payout ratio is also 75%. It always used to be lower because they don't do buybacks over there. They do dividends. But now they're doing more buybacks. And the growth rate in the payout itself over the last five years is now higher in IFA than in the US. So you're getting...

    2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source