YouSaid · the spoken record

Jurrien Timmer

lines on the record: 120
first: 2025-10-10
most recent: 2025-10-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Two and a half percent inflation, you're actually making the income is back into fixed income, right? But down at four, when you have a gross scare, kind of like, I mean, I wouldn't say it's a gross scare, but the job's more nervous.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There's a whole broader conversation about the 60 40, but just dealing with treasuries right now. So as you get close to five, it really starts to freak the stock market out, but also the bond buyers start to emerge because there's value, right? I mean, real rates are positive.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so Treasury yields such an interesting market right now. We've been stuck sort of between 4% and 5%. For a while, and when we go above four and a half, it's like nothing good happens, like that the old Fed model from the Greenspan days comes lurking back and it starts to wobble the stock market because the bond yield and the equity yield are about the same right now. And so that takes you back to the 80s and mid 90s and even the 70s and 60s where Bonds to stocks were positively correlated instead of negatively correlated. That began during the Great Moderation Era late 90s until COVID basically. And then in 2022, of course, the correlation flipped back to positive. It was rising yields that caused the problem in the stock market. And so...”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I speak obviously Dutch is my native language English. I used to be totally fluent in Spanish, but I've kind of lost that. And then, of course, there's the world language called Papiamento, which is what they speak in Aruba, which is essentially kind of a Spanish, Portuguese blend. But if you don't know a word, you can just say it in Dutch or English. I know, and it's completely acceptable.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You figure it out because you're just kind of used to this environment where everyone's coming from different places. And even now, I run, and this is a totally separate topic, but I run a food camp at Burning Man. And it's a very global camp. We have 90 people. We're all cook meals that we gift away to the artists there. But we have like 30 Brazilians and we have like French and Swiss and Mexican people and obviously Americans. And that like it's easy to do because you're just used to having all these different cultures in the same space.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They're amazing. They're 91 and 97. So they got three generations of timber descending on The Hague in about a week and a half. And I think what I feel at home in almost any place. Really? In the world. And when it's hard to understand what someone says because the English is not their first language, you can kind of like.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then actually, we're going to Holland because my parents are, they live in The Hague. They're celebrating their 70th wedding anniversary.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's a great question. I do think that I've been privileged to grow up in a very diverse environment. Like if you look at old high school pictures, I'm like maybe one of two white kids in there. Everyone else is different shades. But so very, very diverse. And so I think and also just going to different countries and learning different cultures or being exposed to them. I think it's helped me. Like I view myself sort of as a global citizen.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so the fundamentals tell you kind of the why, maybe the what and the why, and the technicals tell you kind of the when and the how much. It helps give you conviction. And generally speaking, we use technical analysis like our equity PMs do. They're obviously going to have an idea about a company and what their long-term prospects are. But then our technical analysts will say, okay, well, you've rated this stock a one, meaning strong buy. But the chart looks like hell. You should be aware that what's happening is not the same as what should be happening. And maybe it takes time, but it's like it's a second opinion which can be very helpful. And the other way around as well. Like a chart looks amazing, but it gets a really poor fundamental ranking. And we also have a quantitative dean that does a quant overlay as well.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Employment, et cetera. And that's how I transition from being a technical strategist to being more kind of multidisciplinary because I quickly learned at Fidelity as I was roaming the halls, pitching ideas to portfolio marriages who generally are fundamentally oriented, right? I'm like, you know, it's like I'm speaking a different language, right? So Fideli's always had a lot of technical analysts and the chart room, but I had to reinvent myself again and pivot towards at least speaking their language and like, you know, a chart is a chart, right? It can just be a bar chart of the S&P or it could be of the PE ratio or earnings or monetary policy. So I figured a chart to chart. I'm going to like weave a broader approach to this. And that's where kind of I came up with the title.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so that anyway, so that's how the Fidelity career started. And it was interesting because this is now early 95. And of course, 94 was that bear market, we had the so-called tequila crisis in Mexico. And so the new mandate from upstairs in 95 was we're not making any duration bets. You just stick to your bottom up. You look at credits. And like I'm coming in there as a technician, like, what am I supposed to do now? Like there really is nothing for me to do. And so at that point, I kind of reinvented myself and became multi, multi-asset. And I went to the equity side. And anyway, so that was the when you say multi-”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Crash before. And he was like, Is that, do you think that's a fourth wave? And we were having that conversation. That was great. And then, you know, I was approached by Fidelity and I ended up going with Fidelity. But the last interview of that process was with Ned Johnson. Oh, really? And so I spent the founder. I spent an hour with him in his office talking about Barker's because I was hired to go into the chart room and at Fidelity nobody got into the chart room without Ned's black.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They saw what a profit center in New York was, so they wanted to work for them, become a commissioned salesman. And I'm like, it's like, it's not what I do. And just coincidentally at that time, Fidelity came looking around, looking for the most obscure job in the world, a fixed income technical analyst. Right. I mean, talk about a narrow field, right? Very specific. So that was in 1994. Around that time, you know, I was kind of looking around and I had two major career highlights within six months of each other because in 94, I was approached by Paul Tudor Jones's company. Oh, really? And so I had a meeting with Paul in his office downtown New York with a giant tellerade on the screen, and we were looking at the bond chart, 94, the bear market.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When was that? So, even so, the culture of the ABM Row, not to spill any beans, but this was a long time ago. 30 years ago. 30 years ago. I didn't like where it was going. So ABN had a bank in Chicago.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so it was, so that's how it started. And then I ended up getting the chartered market technician, although that may have been during the fidelity years.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Respond Years So, I was at ABMRU in New York for 10 years. And so I'm there executing trades, learning about the markets, watching the Tellerate and the Bloombergs were still, there were quad screens with the amber. And, you know, I just, I've always been a visual person. And so I started gravitating towards charts and, you know, charts are kind of the mainstay of what I do even now 40 years later. 40 years later. That's crazy. And I like to write. I think I get that from my dad, who's a great writer. And so I always had this kind of urge to put pen to paper and to show charts. And so I just started writing a newsletter for the people in my universe at the time. And it would be like charts from CQG cut out, taped onto a type report, and then faxed to people. Like that's what the technology was back then.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so I was very lucky. And again, you know, it's sort of if you take the job that's offered to you and you make the best of it, you played a hand that's dealt. And literally within a few months, ABN set up a capital markets group because we were the primary dealer in New York together with La Salle National Bank in Chicago for the HQ in Amsterdam, which of course was one of the world's largest banks at the time and a very large treasury book. And so I was the person who would execute the trades for HQ. So I became a client of like Solomon Brothers and Smith Varney and Goldman Sachs, et cetera. And so I got into the Wall Street game and I learned everything about fixed income. And to this day, if you're either a stock market person or a global macro person, having a foundation of fixed income is so important.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Into their corporate banking credit program in which I had zero interest. But it's like, you know, this is the job. No pun intended. But you have interested.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I figured, you know, there's always something you can do with a business degree. And so I studied finance with a minor in investments. And then, you know, I graduated with no work permit, right? So I was in that place where you need to have obviously a work permit. So back then, I don't know if it's still the case, but back then you got one year practical training visa, and then you had to go get a real visa. And so I took literally the only job that was offered to me in the United States. So I applied to every Dutch company. I forget at least they'll have maybe some sentimental reasons to hire a Dutch person. I could have worked in Holland, of course, but I wanted to be in the States. So the Dutch bank ABN, which later became ABN Mro, hired me. I went to New York.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, so I was born and raised on the island of Aruba in 1962 when Aruba was still very small and sheltered. And as a Dutch citizen, now also in American citizen, but generally the Dutch kids would go to Holland to go to higher education. But I was in love with the American culture. I met many tourists on the beach. And so I wanted to go to the States and do the American thing. And then my father, who was an importer of construction materials, etc. He had contacts in Boston. They said, okay, well, you should send your kid to Babson because it's small. It won't be overwhelmed as an international student. And I've always wanted to be an architect, but then in the last year before finishing high school, I'm like, I don't think I'm good enough to be an architect. So let me do business.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source