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Jurrien Timmer

lines on the record: 120
first: 2025-10-10
most recent: 2025-10-10
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“For a reason, the market's very efficient. So the catalyst, so you need a catalyst to make the mean reversion in valuation. Is that so I'm a big fan of the discounted cash flow model, the DCF, which looks at not so much earnings but the payout of earnings. So if you have earnings growth at 10% and 70% of those earnings are being returned to shareholders as dividends or buybacks. The payout is that 70, and the payout ratio is 70%. And for the US, it's always been a very dominating scenario where the payout in the US was very strong because of all the share buybacks we have here.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's possible, and it's actually happening right now. And this is one of the areas that I'm most excited about right now, is that this U.S. bull market has become a global bull market. You look at EM stocks, Chinese stocks, Europe, Japan. And it's very exciting because for many years, right, the US exceptionalism train has been running since 2014-15. And the rest of the world was always so tempting with its lower valuation. And I've had conversations with our asset allocation PMs for years saying, yeah, I can buy EFA or EM at 14 times.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What markets are like. And we had that during Brexit in 2016. I mean, that was constantly the headlines. What about Brexit? Why is the U.S. market ignoring it? Well, because.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I explained it exactly that way that the price always leads, and you can't look at it in sort of a linear way. You have to just know that at inflection points, the price action is going to make no sense. And this is why people sell at bottoms and buy a tops, because they're trying to understand the narrative and that narrative is not the one that is ruling the roost at the time.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Third or fourth quarter, same thing during COVID, March bottomed in March of 2020, earnings recovered third or fourth quarter. And so you can't look at the news and say, how can the market be here when the earnings or like people are dying? So how did you explain?”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it happened after the financial crisis. So price bottoms, the market bets on recovery, and it could be wrong, right? Price discovery doesn't mean the market knows everything. And that's one thing where I sometimes disagree with technicians who say market's always right. Say, well, market's not always right, but the market's always right in discounting everything that's knowable. So it's right in that, but it doesn't mean that what it's discounting can't change, right? And we saw this during the tariff tantrum in April. The market was pricing in a left till that never arrived, and then it had to unprice it. So the market looks ahead and the market bottomed in March of 2009. Earnings didn't bottom until the...”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From the lows, which is amazing, and people are like the economist had a cover saying this is divorced from reality. And everyone, and so it's my job, A, to have people not sell in the first place, to be the long-term investor, you know, the way I always describe it is you're getting a really juicy 10-11% return by investing in stocks, but the price of admission is you got to endure some volatility. And if you can't stand the price, then you don't get the reward.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Eight months. So you can be 100% correct about the economic cycle and be 100% wrong about the market. Because if it's already been reflected and if it's already has even overearned against that future signal, then you're buying yesterday's news. But yeah, so the market generally at bottoms will bottom two, three quarters before earnings. That happened during COVID. And I remembered like it was yesterday because during COVID, you know, the market fell 35% February and March, then like late March, it bottomed.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“There is, of course, a connection, right? If you look at GDP growth and inventories, it means less about that now than it was decades ago. The impact of monetary policy. The markets are not the economy. There is a reflection because if the economy grows, earnings are going to grow and then the market's going to go up because price follows earnings. But there's a sentiment equation in the stock market that of course you don't have so much in the economic cycle and you have the timing, right? So the market is always going to anticipate future changes.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“No. And so there's balance, right? The job seekers versus the job providers. But you look at that chart over 50 years and you can see that there is a pendulum swing of that business cycle. So we went from very tight to neutral and, you know, like the inclination is to look at that. And it's like, well, every other time that's happened, the next phase is contraction. And I think that's what the bond market is saying. I think where the Fed's coming from now that they did the 25, they're looking at the jobs data, looking at the revision, right? The jobs report revision. Big downward revision. 911,000 jobs. And they're like, okay, you know, we should build in some cushion for that. And so I think that's generally the vibe. But other than that, you know, we have a whole economic steam that looks at the business cycle and we're not really seeing a lot of red flags other than that yellow.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For every job seeker, that sort of thing. And that has been worked off over the last few years. I think that was the goal of the tightening policy or part of the goal. So when you look at the Jolts report or you look at the U3 jobless rate relative to Nehru, the non-accelerating rate of employment, everything is in balance. Like it's right at that zero line. So they supply...”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Was it sort of upended a lot of the things we think about when we look at the economic cycle, at the business cycle? So of course we know what happened, the economy froze, people got laid off, and then at least in the US, the economy came back really fast, faster than in other places. And the labor wasn't there, right? Baby boomers had checked out. They left the labor force. Of course, the borders were closed. And I remember like I was doing a lot of flying back to LA at the time because I was hiding in Santa Barbara because the office was closed. And it's like the counter at JetBlue in Boston was like they just did not have enough people. People were coming back. Like everyone was like, okay, we're back. But there wasn't the supply chains weren't there. And so we had this very tight labor market that, of course, we would hear about all the time, you know, from the Jolts report, two job openings.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and the Chinese numbers, of course, can be a little vague because the federal debt in China is not high, but they have the four big policy banks that are essentially providing liquidity. And so you have to add that. And so China and Japan are the worst offenders. The US is on par with most kind of European and other countries. But so anyway, so the economy looks pretty good. One of the things that COVID did.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So about 120% if it's just the federal debt. If you add all other debt, it's about $250. But it's comparable to other regions, but certainly Japan gets the prize and China as well just in terms of the growth rate of the debt.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It was 100% of GDP. It's now 70 So there's a debt issue on the government's balance sheet, but not in the household or even the corporate balance sheet.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So generally speaking, the economy remains pretty solid. People are employed. Their wages are exceeding the inflation rate at this point. Debt levels are not high, at least as a percent of GDP, right? So the household debt to GDP ratio peaked during the financial crisis. Pretty modest.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Market. It doesn't have to mean that, but it could just be a flattening instead of running at 2x the 10 year rate of change, maybe you're at half x or something like that.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, and my guess is that if we are heading into a fiscally dominant era, or we're in it already, so we had $5 trillion of helicopter money in 2020, we now have another five trillion dollar fiscal bill. If the next Fed post-Powell is going to be just more dovish than the economics suggest in order to fund that debt, then you could see inflation be structurally higher than 2%, maybe three to four. And if that, and if the 10-year yield at that point goes to a five handle because the term premium is back, you can easily see a scenario where in a few years that Fed model principle of rising yields bringing down the PE is going to be the thing that flattens that secular slope. That doesn't mean like a 2000s like bear.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's a great question. And so on the surface of it, we're 16 years in. The last two were 18 years. But again, sample size of two. Like you can't go with that, right? But the Cape model, again, which has been a very good long-term model in terms of the 10-year KAGER for the market suggests that the PE, the The growth rate in the PE peaked in 19 for obvious reasons because it's a 10 year model, so 09 rolls off. And then you have that peak. And we've been holding steady at around 14, 15-year Kagers. That actually has another peak in about like 2026, 7, 8. My guess is that that acceleration will be an AI bubble. Or it could be where it's just like, you know, the AI boom, the MAG 7, all of a sudden everyone's buying companies with no earnings because they're promising to be the next killer app and that sort of thing.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But if I had looked at nothing else for the next, you know. Look at those different timeframes and see where they are because it'll keep you on the right side of the market.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But before I answer the rest of that, what I was going to say earlier was when you run the regression of the 09 to present S&P, Either in real or nominal terms, and you run the same regression from 82 to 2000 from 49 to 68, it's exactly the same slope. And so if in 09 I got bullish and in 13, I'm like, yeah, now we've taken out the high, so now we can say this bull market is confirmed. So the 13 for me is not the start, but it's conservation.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's obviously an opportunity because that means that everyone is not on the same side of the boat, right? And actually, and what I was.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Other people, and it's interesting. So in 09, I was actually running a fund back then, a kind of a global macro fund. And I was like, the market was so depressed, right? So remember March of 2009? Sure, of course. And I'm like, you know, I want to be long.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so at secular peaks, the market is about 100% above the trend line. And that secular troughs, it's about 50% below. So that point was in 09. It was not in 13. So I look at the weight of the evidence from a multitude of indicators. And again, it's not an exact science. I'm not saying I'm right, they're wrong. But that's, for me, that's where I get.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It fell so tremendously in the 70s. So I want to get second opinions from the real chart and from the fundamentals. So the CAP model, again, where you compare the tenure PE to the 10-year forward return, looks very similar at the 09 and not similar at the 13 when the market already had a lot of momentum. And then the other thing I look at, again, that 150-year regression trend line of the real S&P.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“In 82, the market went straight up after a decade of sideways. In 49, same thing. Whether the low was in or not. And of course, in real terms, the 82 low was below the 74 low.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Something like that. But in 49, something changed and the slope started to, you know, like the market found itself and that trajectory started to really compound at double digits. And you broke out of that big shelf that was really from 29 all the way to 49s, the low was, of course, in 74, October 74 after 48% bear market. We had some other little cycles. But then in 82, it took off. There was a change in the fundamentals. Volcker broke inflation. And then you look at the case. So then I get verification from the fundamentals. So I look at the charts. And yes, I see the argument and I agree that it's a good point. But in 09, the market just went straight up after a decade of sideways.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Small day to set, it's not a quant model. You have to look at the chart, at the slope. So I date this, the secular bull market from the 50s, I date at 49, even though 49 was not the low, right? The low was 46.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. It's totally legit argument, but I would say a couple of things. One is this is not an exact science, right? There's only been two or three or four secular bull markets, right?”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so it's totally plausible and understandable, but at the end it goes too far, and I don't think we're anywhere close to that. But then you start looking for signs of froth. But yeah, but that's the pendulum swing.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And of course, right now it's the MAG 7, formerly known as the Fangs. And those are secular growers, right? And there's a theme, right? It was internet back then. It's AI now. And people get onto the bandwagon. And it's like, yeah, you know, I'll pay 35 times earnings for a company that is in this space and is going to grow their earnings in a secular way, not a cyclical way.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just a few years earlier on in business week. Death of equities, yes, for sure. And then people become more comfortable and then they go from comfortable to confident. And then it's like, yeah, I'm going to pay 20 or 25 times these earnings. And then, of course, then you have the growth stock, so the late 90s obviously where, you know, I used to call them the Janice 20. There was a fund that would just the most stocks. I remember the wrong.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then in 2000, yes, exactly. And in 2000, the PE was 35 using operating earnings. That was the forward PE actually. The trailing PE was like 45. So that's a hell of a pendulum swing. And obviously 1982 inflation was very high. You had the malaise in the economy. Bonds were very competitive. Nobody wanted to pay for earnings. The death of it.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“When you look at the CAP model, you look at deviation from trend, you look at the slope of those early trend lines. For me, it's 09, which puts it at 16. And of course, and then you have the secular bear markets, right? So the 2000s was one, the 1970s, very famous, of course, 1930s. Doesn't mean the market necessarily goes down, but it's underperforming that 10% trend line. And generally, in real terms, it's probably going down. And so that's kind of how I define the secular trend.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The overall trend is being maintained. But you have these super cycles where you're outperforming the trend line. So the 80s and 90s was one of those. So instead of a 10% return, we got 18% returns for like 18 years. The 50s and 60s after World War II, the 20s, that was a truncated one, but from 20 to 29, boy, did that thing go. And since 09 is where I put it, other technicians generally disagree with me. They think it was 2013.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And if you go back 100 years, you can see them, you can spot them very easily because the market has a kind of central trend line plus 10% nominal plus seven, six and three quarters real. And if you run a regression trend line against the total real return of the S&P or some basket of stocks going back 150 years, it's like perfect. And then you have the pendulum swinging above it and below it. So you have”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, so we have the market cycle, which is generally driven by the business cycle. So you have a recession and you have the early cycle recovery where things get less bad. And of course, the market is always anticipating that, right? The market's always in price discovery. And this is why at bottoms, price will lead earnings, which is why the PE always goes up in the first year of a bull market. Like it always does. And it doesn't make sense on the surface. People like, oh, this can't be real. It's all PE driven. Where are the earnings? Well, the market's just front running the earnings. But then there are the secular trends.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“They are strong predictors of long term returns. So if you take a 10-year CAPE ratio and you regress that against 10-year forward returns, you see a very high, you know, it explains the forward returns very well. But over the near term, a high PE has very little to say about the next year or two. And this is because the market tends to be in a rising trend. Momentum begets momentum. And that's what we're in. So it's a tough game to time on the mean reversion of PEs. Evaluation. Even though we know that historically it's between 10 and 30 and it does mean revert. But when the mean reverts and from what level is very, very difficult to do, especially during secular trends, which I think we're very clearly in.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Strongest ever recoveries from a 20% decline other than 1998. And then now Powell's easing into that. But the point is that that period saw almost nonstop multiple expansion. And that's what we've seen since 2022. And PEs are”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Over the past 20 Yes, so the market obviously is very bifurcated. We got the MAC 7, the cap weighted PE is 23, 24, the equal weighted PE is 18. So there's a very large gap there. If you look back at the mid to late 90s, which is a kind of an analogous period to today, right? We had the 94 stealth bear market when Greenspan raised rates 300 basis points. Then he gave back 75 and we had a huge rally and it was also the start of the internet boom, the Netscape IPO, I think it was like in 1996. So the post-2022 period, very analogous to post-1994, soft landing, ease off the brakes, markets rip, and then the post-98 long-term capital, that 22% decline very robust recovery and then greenspan eases three times into that recovery. We're seeing the same thing now. We had a 21% tariff tantrum. No recession, you know, the kind of administration backed off. Very, very strong.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“From among sort of the typical investors, we have not really seen an exodus at all. And I think part of that is just the demographics of the baby boom solving for income more so than growth. So you look at fund flows into fixed income. They've remained strong and they were strong at 1% and they're strong at 4%. So I think that is more of a structural trend than playing the markets, if you will. Like I think the average investor is not looking at, okay, well, real rates are now positive. So let me do this. But they're solving for outcomes. They're buying solutions-based funds like our target date will have certain amount of fixed income.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Deposites went from zero to half. So money markets yielded 10x the bank deposit. And so some of that may go to the stock market, but it didn't come from the stock market, let me put it that way.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It could be a combination of both, but if you typically look at when money market fund assets swell like it did during the pandemic, it's money coming out of the stock market seeking a safe haven. And then when the stock market recovers, the money goes back in the stock market. That's not the pattern this year. The money came out of the banks, in part because of the Silicon Valley debacle a few years ago.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“For the, yeah. So you leave money at the bank for convenience, you know, you got bills to pay. But if you have extra cash, you're buying a CD or money market fund or buying T-bills or what have you. And it's a lot easier than it used to be. And so now you've got $7 trillion in money market funds, which a lot of people actually think is money waiting to be invested in the stock market. But I don't think there's really a signal there because I think that money came out of the banks and probably will go back to the banks”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Banks' net interest margins go upside down, right? They borrow short lend long. And so banks stop lending and you get a credit crunch and you get a recession. But in this case, the large banks, if you notice, your deposit rate at the large megacenter banks has not really gone up commensurate with the yield on money market funds, right? So that deposit rate went up to half a percent and is now coming back down again. So for a large bank, the yield curve not only was never inverted, it was extremely Steep, half a percent funding, right? If you're funding your loans on deposits and you're paying half a percent on those deposits and you can lend at 7 or 8 percent, you'll do that all day long.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we had that very inverted yield curve, obviously it shouted recession and it didn't happen. And I think the reason in hindsight was that the economy is just less interest rate sensitive than it used to be, right? So everyone refied their mortgage in 2020 and 21 at sub 3%. That's also why the housing market is frozen. But also if you look at the big banks, right, why is a yield curve inversion typically bad? It's because”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And a five handle on treasuries are not going to sit well with equities. Like the equity market can go up. Earnings can drive the bus. But the PE gets under pressure because the risk-free asset is now competing with the risky asset and they're offering the same yield.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yes, uh, but running kind of that fiscal train means deficit spending, or at least that's part of it, and that means more supply, and that could mean higher term premium for long treasuries. And we saw, we've seen that, right? The term premium during the QE financial repression days was like minus 150, which makes no sense. A risk premium should always be positive. And now it's plus 60 plus 70. But historically, it's been plus 150 or even more. And so if the term premium mean reverts back to a normal level, positive level, because deficit spending and debt levels are rising, You could easily see a five handle on treasuries”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And so they're trying to goose the economy and outrun the debt because everyone knows you can't really cut the debt very much because too much of the budget is not discretionary. And so that's the plan. And I think it's basically it's a good plan because what are the alternatives, right?”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So at four, generally, I would be a better seller than a buyer. But this question of fiscal dominance, you know, clearly the administration wants to grow out of the debt. I think that's the very overt plan if you listen to Scott Bessand or even pretty explicit.”
2025-10-10 · Masters in Business · 'Barbell' Investing Strategies With Jurrien Timmer · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source