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Konstantin Batygin

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2021-07-19
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2021-07-19
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  1. It was Linus Pauling or somebody from that generation of scientists. And a good way to have good ideas is to have a lot of ideas. So I think that's true. If you are conservative in your thinking, if you worry about proposing something that's going to fail and, oh, what if, you know, like there's no science police that's going to come and arrest you for proposing the wrong thing? And it's also just like, why would you do science if you're afraid of taking that step? It would be so To propose things that are plausible, that are interesting, and then for a fraction of them to be wrong, then to just kind of make incremental progress all your life, right?

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  2. That's true if you're buying like, I don't know, toilet paper or something, right? It's just not true in the intellectual pursuit. That's not how it works. And sometimes it'll fail, right? Like sometimes a huge fraction of what I do, right? I come up with an idea. I think, oh, it's great. And then I work it out. It's totally not great, right? It fails immediately.

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  3. That's right. That's true. The openness of science truly, it benefits everybody. The notion that if, you know, I share my science with you, then you're going to catch up and like know the same thing. That is a short-sighted viewpoint because if you catch up and you open you discover something that puts me in a position to do the next step. The kind of question of like military funding versus non-military funding is obviously a complicated one. But at the end of the day, I think we have to get over the notion as a society that we are going to pay for this and then we will get that.

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  4. Splitting of the atom is a kind of a canonical example of this. We all know that tragedy that arises from splitting of the atom. And yet, so much, I mean, the atom itself does not care for what purpose it is being split.

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  5. At no point was that the motivation, and yet, you know, it gave us the world that we have today. And the answer is if you are a purely pragmatic person, if you don't care at all about kind of the human condition, none of this, the answer is you can tax it. Right, like useless things. Have created way more capital than useful things.

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  6. I didn't come up with this. This was a little book by the guy who started the Institute for Advanced Studies. But, you know, it's so true so much of the electronics that are on this table, right, work on Maxwell's equations. Maxwell wasn't sitting around in the 1800s saying, you know, I hope one day we'll make a couple mics. So, you know, a couple, you know, a couple guys can have this conversation, right? That was no.

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  7. A non secular view of the natural world and kind of think, okay, this can be understood and if it can be understood, it can be utilized. We can create our own variants of this. Absolutely. We would be a very, very different species without astronomy. This, I think, extends beyond just astronomy, right? There are questions like, why do we need to spend money on X? Where X can be anything like paleontology, right?

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  8. Yeah, look, that's a great, I mean, that's a great point. Newton in part developed calculus because he was interested in understanding, explaining Kepler's laws, right? In general, that whole mechanistic understanding of the night sky, replacing a religious understanding where you interpret this is, you know, this whatever fire god writing his little chariot across the sky as opposed to this is some mechanistic set of laws, that transformed humanity and arguably put us on the course that we're on today, right? The entirety of the last 400 years and the development of kind of our technological world that we live in today was sparked by that. Abandoning and effectively, you know,

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  9. Yeah, so let's see. So much of the early evolution of mankind was driven by exploration. Right, and the kind of interest in In part as a tool to guide that exploration, right? I mean, that in itself. Think would be a huge differential in the way that we are our evolution on this planet

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  10. Okay, think about a greenhouse, right? A greenhouse. Is cloudy effectively, but it's super hot. Yeah, it's hard to avoid having an atmosphere. If you have an opaque atmosphere, it's hard to, right? Venus is a great example, right? Venus is, I don't remember exactly how many degrees, but it's hundreds in Celsius. It's not a hundred, it's hundreds, even though it's only a little bit closer to the sun, that temperature is entirely coming from the fact that the atmosphere is thick.

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  11. It would be drastically different. Just if it ever did develop. So I think some of the early developments of like. First of all, that atmosphere would be so hot because, you know, if you have no opaque atmosphere, the temperature at the bottom. Is huge. So we would be very different beings to start with.

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  12. Whole endeavor. Has captivated the imagination of so many, and it has led to incredible kind of ideas, really, and probably in nonlinear ways, right? Not like, okay, we went to the moon. Therefore, some person here has thought of this. In that similar sense, I think space exploration about it. And it's on a genetic level, right? Like we have this need to keep exploring, right, when we're done with a certain frontier, we move on to the next frontier. All that I'm saying. Is that I'm not moving to Mars to live there permanently ever, you know, and I think that I'm glad you noted the kind of degradation of the Earth. I think that is a true kind of the leading order challenge of our time. Great engineer.

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  13. You can have that experience by going to the Mojave Desert and camping. And it's just like, it's just not a great, what's interesting

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  14. I was just camping in the Mojave with a friend of mine. And they saw this string of satellites just kind of like appear and then disappear into nowhere. So that is beginning to interfere with Earth-based observations. So I think there's tremendous potential there. It's also important to be responsible about how it's executed. Now, with Mars and the whole idea of exploring Mars, I don't have like strong opinions on whether a manned mission is required or not required. But I do think we need to think to keep in mind is that I generally kind of I'm not signed on, if you will, to the idea that Mars is some kind of a safe haven that we can escape to, right? Mars sucks, right? Like living on Mars, if you want to live on Mars, like...

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  15. Yes, that's right. So, okay, here I have many ideas about, I think, on the one hand, right? Like what SpaceX has been able to do, for example, phenomenal. If that brings down the price of SpaceX, wouldn't that turnaround timescale for space exploration, which I think it inevitably will, that's a huge boost to the human condition. At the same time, if we're talking astronomy, right, there also, it comes at a huge cost, right? And the Starlink satellites is a great example of that cost, right? At one point,

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  16. So look, it's been astonishing to watch how overly over the last decade the commercial sector took over this, you know, This industry that traditionally has really been like a government thing to do.

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  17. Wasn't there a guy who built his rocket out of garbage? This was like a couple years ago, and somewhere in the desert, he launched himself.

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  18. Has not been fully executed on yet, but I absolutely think that's on the horizon and we're not talking a decade. I think we're talking like this decade

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  19. So, in this regard, I actually think there is a huge revolution that's to some extent already started, right? The standard kind of like time scale for a NASA mission is that you propose it and it launches, I don't know, like 150 years after I'm over-exaggerating. But it's just like some huge development cycle. And it gets delayed 55 times That is not going away. Right. The really cutting edge things, you have to do it this way because you don't know what you're building, so to speak. But the CubeSat kind of world is starting to provide an avenue for launching something that costs a few million dollars and has a turnaround time scale of like a couple years. You can imagine doing PhD theses where you design the mission. The mission goes to where you're going and you do the science all within the time span of five, six years.

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  20. I think that's the basic idea. Back a few years ago, we had conversations like these with engineers from JPL, they more or less convinced me that this is much more difficult than it seems because at that level of precision, right? Things like solar flares matter, right? Solar flares are completely chaotic. You can't predict where a solar flare will happen that will drive radiation pressure gradients. You don't know where every single asteroid is. So like actually doing that problem, I think it's possible, but it's not a trivial matter, right?

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  21. Yet, look, the way the idea is a cool one, right? You go and you say, you know, launch them basically isotropically, you track where they go. And if I understand the idea correctly, you basically measure the deflection and you say, okay, that must be something there since the probe trajectories are being altered.

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  22. Yeah, Pluto is also, in the sense like, you know, Pluto is a tiny, tiny thing, right? Just like you would imagine there's just a tiny ball of ice. Like, who cares? But in the New Horizons images of Pluto reveal so much remarkable structure, right? They reveal glaciers flowing. And these are glaciers not made out of water ice, but CO ice turns out at those temperatures of like 40 or so Kelvin, water ice looks like metal. It just doesn't flow at all. But then ice made up of carbon monoxide starts to flow. I mean, there's just like all kinds of really cool phenomena that you otherwise just wouldn't really even imagine that occur. So yeah, I mean, there's a reason why I like planets.

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  23. I will say this, planets kind of in terms of their complexity on some logarithmic scale fall somewhere between a star and an insect, right? An insect is way more complicated than a star, right? Just there's all kinds of physical processes and really biochemical processes that occur inside of an insect that just make a star look like somebody is like playing with a spring or something. Yeah. Right, so I think it would be arguably more interesting to go to Planet 9 if it's a planet, because black holes are simple. They're just kind of, they're basically macroscopic particles like a star.

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  24. Yeah, I mean, of course, here my own biases creep in because I'm interested in planets around other stars And I would say I would disagree that we wouldn't find things that would be truly fundamentally new. Because as it turns out, the galaxy is really good at making five or three Earth mass objects. The most common type of planet that we see, that we discover orbiting around other stars, is a few Earth masses. In the solar system, there's no analog for that, right? We go from one Earth mass object, which is this one, to skipping to Neptune and Uranus, which themselves are actually relatively poorly understood, especially Uranus from the interior structure point of view. If planet 9 is a planet going there will give us the closest window and to understanding what other planets look like.

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  25. Observationally, the difference would be that you will never find the black hole, right? The truth is they're kind of, I'm actually not, you know, I never looked into this very carefully, but there's some constraints that you can get just statistically say, okay, if the sun has a binary companion, which is a five Earth mass black hole, then that means such black holes would be extremely common. And, you know, you can sort of look for lensing events and then you say, okay, maybe that's not so likely. Know that said, I want to emphasize that there's a limit to what our calculations can tell you. That's the orbit and the mass.

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  26. That's why it's hard to find. Now, can we right away from our calculations say that's definitely true or that's not true? Absolutely not. We can't, in fact, our calculations tell you nothing other than the orbit and the mass. And that means the black hole, I mean, it could be a five Earth mass, you know, cup. It could be a five Earth mass hedgehog or a black hole or really anything that's five earth masses will do because the gravity of a black hole is no different than the gravity of a planet. If the sun became a black hole tomorrow, it would be dark, but the Earth would keep orbiting it. This notion that all black holes suck everything in, it's not, that's like a sci-fi notion.

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  27. That's right. But you know, so such black holes are all over the place. When they merge, we get to see incredible gravitational waves that they emit, et cetera, et cetera. One kind of plausible scenario, however, is that when the universe was forming, basically during the Big Bang, you created a whole spectrum of black holes, some with masses of five Earth masses, some with masses of 10 earth masses, like the entire mass spectrum size, the mass of asteroids. Now, on the smaller end over the lifetime of the universe, the small ones kind of evaporate and they're not there anymore, at least this is what the calculations tell us. But fiberth masses is big enough to not have evaporated. So one idea is that planet 9 is not a planet. And instead, it is a five earth mass black hole.

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  28. Yeah. So primordial black hole is a black hole which is made not through the usual pathway of making a black hole, which is that you have a star, which is more massive than 1.4 or so solar masses. And basically when it runs out of fuel, runs out of its nuclear fusion fuel, it can't hold itself up anymore. And just the whole thing collapses on itself. You create a One, I guess, simple way to think about it is you create an object with zero radius that has mass but zero radius and that singularity. Now that's such black holes exist all over the place. In the galaxy, there's in fact a really big one at the center of the galaxy that terrifies

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  29. Material. Some of it is coming out from by Neptune scattering. Some of it is moving in. And if you work through the numbers, you kind of at the end of the day that it has an effect on the best fit orbit for Planet 9 itself. So if you realize that the data set that we're observing is not entirely composed of things that came out of the solar system, but also things that got re-injected back in, then turns out the best fit planet 9 slightly more eccentric. That's kind of getting into the weeds. The point here is that the existence of planet 9 self provides this natural bridge that connects an otherwise dormant population of IC debris of the solar system with things that we're starting to directly observe.

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  30. If Planet 9's not there, that population is completely dormant. And these objects just slowly orbit the Sun, nothing interesting happens to them ever. But what we realized is that if Planet 9 is there, planet 9 can actually grab some of those objects and gravitationally reinject them into the distant solar system. So we thought, okay, let's look into this with numerical experiments. Do our simulations, does this process work? And if it works, what are its consequences? So it turns out, indeed, not only does Planet 9 inject these distant Oord cloud objects into the Kuiper belt, they follow roughly the same pathway as the objects that are being scattered out. So there's this kind of river, two-way river.

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  31. And B, how can we improve our simulations? Like, what's missing? One idea that maybe should have been obvious in retrospect is that all of our simulations treated the solar system as some isolated creature. But the solar system did not form an isolation, right? It formed in this cluster of stars. And during that phase of forming together with thousands of other stars, we believe the solar system formed this almost spherical population of icy debris that sits maybe at a few thousand times the separation between the earth and the sun, maybe even a little bit closer.

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  32. Okay, let me take a brief step back and say when we do calculations of planet nine, when we do the simulations, as far as our simulations are concerned, sort of the Neptune kind of the trans-Neptunian solar system is entirely sourced from the inside, namely the Kuiper belt gets scattered by Neptune and then planet 9 does things to it and aligns the orbits and so on. And then we calculate what happens on the lifetime of the solar system, yada, yada, yada. During the pandemic, one of the kind of questions we asked ourselves, and this is indeed something we Mike and I, Mike Brown, who's a partner in crime on this, and I do regularly is we say, how can we, A, disprove ourselves?

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  33. Look, you can't just be good at waiting. You got to know how to chill. You can't just sit around and do nothing. You got to know how to chill.

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  34. That's right. That's kind of the worst reason to want to live a long time just like in the brain like smoke a cigarette. Can you just say,

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  35. And then they found it. But the point is the understanding of where to look for Neptune came entirely out of celestial mechanics. The case with Planet 9 is a little bit different because what we can do, I think relatively well is predict the orbit and mass of planet 9. We cannot tell you where it is on its orbit. The reason is we haven't seen the Kuiper belt objects complete an orbit, their own orbit. Even once because it takes 4,000 years. But, you know, I plan to live on as an AI being, and I'll be tracking those orbits as, you know, force.

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  36. This was 1781. The kind of tracking, both the tracking of the orbit of Uranus as well as the reconstruction of the orbit of Uranus immediately revealed that it was not following the orbit that it was supposed to, right? The predicted orbit deviated away from where it actually was. So in the mid-1800s, a French mathematician by the name of Orban Le Verrier did a beautifully sophisticated calculation which said if this is due to gravity of a more distant planet, then that planet is there.

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  37. It's entirely plausible. The Oort cloud itself probably holds about five Earth masses or seven earth masses of material, right? So it's not nothing. And it all ultimately comes down to at what point will the observational surveys sample enough of the solar system to kind of reveal interesting things? A great analogy here with Neptune and the story of how Neptune was discovered. Neptune was not discovered by looking at the sky, right? It was discovered by, it was discovered mathematically, right? So yeah, the orbit of Uranus, when Uranus was found

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  38. In principle, yeah. I mean, there's No law of physics that doesn't allow you to have multiple. There's also no evidence at present for there being multiple.

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  39. Yes. So from an image, the moment you see something, something that is reflecting sunlight back at you and you know that it's hundreds of times as far away from the sun as is the earth.

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  40. 100% physics. No, no, look, in all seriousness, though, there are a few things that I really, really enjoy. I genuinely enjoy physics. I genuinely enjoy music. I genuinely, you know, enjoy martial arts. And I genuinely enjoy my family. I should have said that all in a reverse order or something. But I like to focus on these things and not worry too much about everything else. You know what I mean?

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  41. An extent, I mean, the early Earth was completely unlike the current Earth, right? There was no oxygen. So one of my colleagues at Caltech, Joe Kirschnik, is certainly something like 100% certainty that life started on Mars and came to Earth on Martian meteorites. This is not a problem that I like to kind of think about too much. Like the origin of life, it's a fascinating problem. But, you know, it's not physics. And I just don't love it.

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  42. Absolutely, absolutely. Like a great example is small media rights. Small media rights are melted. They're differentiated, meaning some of the iron sinks. You say, how can that be? Because they're so small that they wouldn't have melted just from the heat of their accretion. Turns out the fact that the solar nebula, the disk that made the planets was polluted by aluminum-26 is in itself a remarkable thing. It means the solar system did not form an isolation. It formed in a giant cloud of thousands of other stars that were also forming, some of which were undergoing, you know, going through supernova explosions, some of, and releasing these unstable isotopes of which we now see kind of the traces of. So cool

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  43. Just there, yeah. It's actually kind of astonishing, right? We have only Explored a small fraction of the solar system, right? That really Kind of baffles me because I remember as a student studying physics, you do the problem where you put the earth around the sun, you solve that, and like it's one line of math and you say, okay, well, that surely was figured out by Newton. So all the interesting stuff is not. In the solar system, but that It's just plainly not true. There are mysteries in the solar system that are remarkable that we are only now starting to just kind of scratch the surface of.

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  44. Yeah, it's kind of like a big public sphere. That's right. And if you look at the very outside, it's polluted by this quasi-spheroidal thing. Nobody is, of course, ever seen the Oort cloud. We've only seen comments that come from the ORD cloud. So the ORD cloud, which is this population of distant debris, its existence is also inferred. You could say alternatively there is, you know, there's a big cosmic creature that occasionally, you know, sitting at 20,000 AU and occasionally throws an icy rock towards the sun like that.

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  45. Population of small bodies in the solar system that also get produced by Planet through an independent kind of gravitational effect. So there's basically five different things that Planet Nine does. Individually that are like kind of maybe a one sigma effect where you'd say, yeah, okay, if that's all it was, maybe it's not no reason to jump up and down. But because it's a multitude of these puzzles that all are explained by one hypothesis, that's really the magnetism, the attraction of the planet 9 model.

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  46. Emphasize that, for example, the existence of objects, again, Kuiper belt objects that are heavily out of the plane of the solar system, things that are tilted by, say, 90 degrees, that's not, we don't expect that as an outcome of planet formation. Indeed, planet formation simulations have never produced such objects without some extrinsic gravitational force. Planet 9, on the other hand, generates them very readily. So that provides kind of an alternative, you know,

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  47. Confining them, right? Yeah. Finding, like grouping their orbits together, see what would happen if Planet Nine were not there is these orbits that roughly share a common orientation, they would just disperse, right? They would just become as a methyl asymmetric point everywhere. Planet 9's gravity makes it such that these objects stay in a state that's basically anti-aligned with respect to the orbit of planet 9 and sort of hang out there and kind of oscillate on timescale of about a billion years. That's one of the lines of evidence.

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  48. Is a hypothetical object that orbits the solar system at an orbital period of about 10,000 years. And an orbit which is slightly tilted with respect to the plane of the solar system, slightly eccentric, and the object itself, we think is five times more massive than the Earth. We have never seen planet 9 in a telescope, but we have gravitational evidence for it.

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  49. I sure do. I mean, I think these days with music, music is a great example, right? We just started, you know, practicing live with my band again, you know, after not playing for a year. And, you know, it was just terrible. Kind of a lot of the nuance, you know, a lot of the detail is just that detail that takes years of collective practice to develop is just lost, but it was just an incredible amount of fun, way more fun than all the studio sitting around and playing that I did throughout the entire year. So I think there's something intangible or maybe tangible about being in person. I sure hope you're wrong and that's not something that will get lost because I think there's such a large part of the human condition is to hang out. If we were doing this interview on Zoom. Right. I mean, I'd already be bored out of my mind.

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  50. In the video game world. For me There's a multitude of reasons why I don't want to box with Mike Tyson. No, no, no, no. I enjoy teaching.

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