YouSaid · the spoken record

Marc Andreessen

lines on the record: 279
first: 2023-06-22
most recent: 2023-06-22
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“I think it's very clear that the machine's going to do a better job making that decision because the humans making that decision are god awful just terrible Right. And so, yeah, so this is the thing. And then let's get to the one more slight of hand.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. And so precision is obviously, and this is the JDAM, right? So there's this big advance called the JDAM, which basically was trapping a GPS transceiver to an unguided bomb and turning it into a guided bomb. And yeah, that's great. Look, that's been a big advance. But that's like a baby version of this question, which is, okay, do you want the human pilot guessing where the bomb's going to land or do you want the machine guiding the bomb to his destination? That's a baby version of the question. The next version of the question is, do you want the human or the machine deciding whether to drop the bomb? Everybody just assumes the human's going to do a better job for what I think are fundamentally suspicious reasons.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A lot of civilians died. And if you watch the documentary, The Fog of War, McNamara, it spends a big part of it talking about the firebombing of the Japanese cities. Burning them straight to the ground, the devastation in Japan, the American military firebombing the cities in Japan was a considerably bigger devastation than the use of nukes. So we've been doing that for a long time. We also did that to Germany, by the way, Germany did that to us, right? That's an old tradition. The minute we got airplanes, we started doing indiscriminate bombing.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But then they're going to develop goals of their own. They're going to develop a mind of their own. They're going to develop their own, right?”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Wars go terribly wrong now This goes back to that whole thing about like the self driving, just a self driving car need to be perfect versus does it need to be better than the human driver. Yeah. Does the automated drone need to be perfect, or does it need to be better than a human pilot at making decisions under enormous amounts of stress and uncertainty?”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I want to go the other way. I think it's obvious that the machine is going to make a better decision than the human pilot. I think it's obvious that it's in the best interest of both the attacker and the defender and humanity at large if machines are making more of these decisions and not people. I think people make terrible decisions in times of war”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He presents them all as sort of an equivalent risk to be dealt with in an equivalent way to be thought about the same way. And then the risk, the quote unquote risk that's actually emerged is actually a completely different technology than he was even imagining. And yet all of his theories and beliefs are being transplanted by this movement like straight onto this new technology. And so again, there's no other area of science or technology where you do that. Like when you're dealing with organic chemistry versus inorganic chemistry, you don't just like say, oh, with respect to either one, basically maybe, you know, growing up and eating the world or something, like they're just going to operate the same way.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Which is very not scientific. So, the book's super intelligence, right? Which is like the Nick Bostrom's book, which is like the origin of a lot of this stuff, which was written, whatever, 10 years ago or something. So he does this really fascinating thing in the book, which is he basically says there are many possible routes to machine intelligence, to artificial intelligence, and he describes all the different routes to artificial intelligence, all the different possible, everything from biological augmentation through to all these different things. One of the ones that he does not describe is large language models, because, of course, the book was written before they were invented, and so they didn't exist. In the book, he describes them all, and then he proceeds to treat them all as if they're exactly the same thing”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not in the foom paperclip. There's another slight of hand that you just alluded to. There's another slight of hand that happens, which is very...”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“What even is this not science? It's not anything. It's not a model. It's not anything. There's nothing to, arguing with it is like, you know, punching jello. Like there's, what do you even respond to?”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not be a hero of yours anymore. I'm sorry, you probably shouldn't read the book. Here's the thing, the AI risk people, they don't even have the COVID model. At least not that I'm aware of Like, there's not even the equivalent of the COVID model. They don't even have the spaghetti code. They've got a theory and a warning and a this and a that. And if you ask, okay, well, here's, I mean, the ultimate example is, okay, how do we know? How do we know that an AI is running away? Like, how do we know that the Foom takeoff thing is actually happening? And the only answer that any of these guys have given that I've ever seen is, oh, it's when the loss function in the training drops, right? That's when you need to shut down the data center, right? And it's like, well, that's also what happens when you're successfully training a model.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's just a story there are other books on this topic, but this is a new one that's really good. It's just a story of what happens when experts in a certain domain decide to weigh in and become basically social engineers and political advisors. And it's just a story of just unending catastrophe Right, and I think that's what happened with COVID again.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, in this case, philosophers, but he actually talks in this book about he talks about actually about the nuclear age in Einstein. He talks about the physicists actually doing very similar things at the time.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Number one is when we start with number one humility goes back to this thing of how do we determine the truth number two is we don't believe you know it's the old I've got to hammer everything looks like a nail right I've got one of the reasons I gave you I gave Lexa book which the topic of the book is what happens when scientists basically stray off the path of technical knowledge and start to weigh in on politics and societal issues”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Science is a process of testing hypotheses Modeling does not involve testable hypotheses, right? Like, I don't even know that I actually don't, I don't, I don't even know that modeling actually qualifies as science. Maybe that's a side conversation we could have sometime over a beer.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Although a big part of what was happening, a big reason we got lockdowns for as long as we did was because he scientists came in with these doomsday scenarios that were like just like completely off the hook.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think we have the opposite problem during COVID. I think the policymakers, I think these people with basically fake science had too much access to the policymakers.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Know, I would like to believe that it is. Let's put it this way. I think where you and I would agree is I think we would like that to be the case. We are strongly in favor of it. I think we would also agree that no such thing with respect to COVID or pandemics, no such thing, at least neither you nor I think are aware I'm not aware of anything like that today.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So to be useful, at some point it has to be predictive, right? So the easy thing for me to do is to say, obviously you're right. Obviously, I want to see that just as much as you do because anything that makes it easier to navigate through society through a wrenching risk like that, that sounds great. The harder objection to it is just simply you are trying to model a complex dynamic system with eight billion moving parts like not possible.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, a friend of mine runs a big software company and he was like, wow, this is like COVID's really scary. And he's like, you know, he contacted this research and he's like, you know, do you need some help? You've been just building this model on your own for 20 years. Do you need some coders to basically restructure it so it can be fully adapted for COVID? And the guy said yes and sent over the code. And my friend said it was like the worst spaghetti code he's ever seen.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, do they work because they're in expectation that they actually work, that they have actual predictive value? I mean, as far as I can tell with COVID, we just saw the policymakers just sigh up themselves into believing that there was substance. I mean, look, the scientists were at fault. The quote-unquote scientists. So I have some insight into this. So there was remember the Imperial College models out of We were the ones that were like these are the gold standard models”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So, not if they're, I mean, not if they're reliably wrong, right? Then they're actually anti useful, right? They're actually damaging.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Head with COVID. My view of COVID is you have these experts showing up. They claim to be scientists and they had no testable hypotheses whatsoever. They had a bunch of models. They had a bunch of forecasts and they had a bunch of theories and they laid these out in front of policymakers and policymakers freaked out and panicked and implemented a whole bunch of like really like terrible decisions that we're still living with the consequences of. And there was never any empirical foundation to any of the models. None of them ever came true.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And this is where you get, and again, if you just look at the history of millennium and cults, this is where you get the people's temple and everybody killing themselves in the jungle, and this is where you get Charles Manson and sending in to kill the pigs. This is the problem with these. They have a very hard time to draw on the line at actual violence. And I think in this case, they're already calling for it like today. And, you know, where this goes from here as they get more worked up, like I think is really concerning.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It starts getting real. So here's the problem with millennia and cults. They have a hard time staying away from violence. If you're on the right end of it. Have a hard time avoiding violence. The reason they have a hard time avoiding violence is if you actually believe the claim, right? Then what would you do to stop the end of the world? You would do anything, right?”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not science It is the opposite of science. So Carl Sagan, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, right? These are extraordinary claims. The policies that are being called for, right, to prevent this are of extraordinary magnitude. And I think we're going to cause extraordinary damage. And this is all being done on the basis of something that is literally not scientific. It's not a testable hypothesis”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Practical counter arguments, right? So you mentioned basically what I've described as the thermodynamic counter argument, which is sitting here today, it's like, where were the evil AGI get the GPUs? Like they don't exist, so you're going to have a very frustrated baby evil AGI who's going to be like trying to buy NVIDIA stock or something to get them to finally make some chips. Right. So the serious form of that is the thermodynamic argument, which is like, okay, where's the energy going to come from? Where's the processor going to be running? Where's the data center going to be happening? How is this going to be happening in secret such that you know it's not, you know? So that's a practical counter argument to the runaway AGI thing. But I have a, and we can argue that discuss that. I have a deeper objection to it, which is this is all forecasting. It's all modeling. It's all future prediction. It's all future hypothesizing.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And there's no by definition with these kinds of claims, there's no way to disprove them. Right, and so there's no, you just go right on the list, there's no hypothesis, there's no testability of the hypothesis, there's no way to falsify the hypothesis, there's no way to measure progress along the arc. Like it's just all completely missing. And so it's not scientific”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, the Steelman is actually the steel man and his refutation are the same, which is you can't predict what's going to happen, right? You can't rule out that this will not end everything, right? But the response to that is you have just made a completely non-scientific claim. You've made a religious claim, not a scientific claim”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And then once you lock in on that, like, how can you do anything else with your life? Like, this is obviously the thing that you have to do. And then there's a psychological effect you alluded to. There's a psychological effect if you take a set of true believers and you leave them to themselves. They get more radical because they self-radicalize each other.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, and the millenarian's kind of, when you see a millenarian cult, they put a really specific point on it, which is end of the world, right? There is some change coming. And that change that's coming is so profound and so important that it's either going to lead to utopia or hell on earth, right? And it is going to, and then, you know, it's like, what if you actually knew that that was going to happen, right? What would you, what would you do, right? How would you prepare yourself for it? How would you come together with a group of like-minded people? How would you, what would you do? Would you plan like caches of weapons in the woods? Would you like, you know, I don't know if it would create underground buckers? Would you, you know, spend your life trying to figure out a way to avoid having it happen?”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So C.S. Lewis called it the god-shaped hole. So there's a god shaped hole in the human experience, consciousness, soul, whatever you want to call it, where there's got to be something that's bigger than all this. There's got to be something transcendent. There's got to be something that is bigger, bigger purpose, a bigger meaning. And so we have run the experiment of, you know, we're just going to use science and rationality and kind of, you know, everything's just going to kind of be as it appears. And a large number of people have found that very deeply wanting and have constructed narratives. And by the way, this is the story of the 20th century, right? Communism, right, was one of those. Communism was a form of this. Nazism was a form of this. Some people, you can see movements like this playing out all over the world right now.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Like, how plausible it's like a very deep psychological thing because it's like how plausible is it that we live in a world where everything's just kind of all right how exciting How exciting is that, right?”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Because it satisfies this very deep need we have for transcendence and meaning that got stripped away when we became secular.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Of people who are going to see it coming and prepare for it. And then they're the people who are either going to stop it or are failing stopping it. They're going to be the people who survive to the other side and ultimately get credit for having been right.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we live in, we of course live in a Judeo-Christian, but primarily Christian kind of saturated kind of Christian post Christian, secularized Christian kind of world in the West. And of course, court of Christianity is the idea of the Second Coming and Revelations and Jesus returning in the thousand year utopia on earth and then the rapture and like all that stuff. We collectively as a society, we don't necessarily take all that fully seriously now. So what we do is we create our secularized versions of that. We keep looking for utopia. We keep looking for basically the end of the world. And so what you see over decades is that basically a pattern of these sort of this is what cults are. This is how cults form as they form around some theory of the end of the world. And so the people's temple cults, the Manson called the Heavensgate called the David Kuresh called what they're all organized around is like there's going to be this thing that's going to happen that's going to basically bring civilization crashing down. And then we have this special elite group.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We don't know, but this is my point, it's different. We actually don't know, and this is where the sleight of hand kicks in, right? This is where it goes from being a scientific topic to being a religious topic. And that's why I specifically called out that, because that's what happens. They do the vocabulary shift. And all of a sudden, you're talking about something totally that's not actually real.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But we knew that nuclear physics would lead to weapons. That's why the scientists of that era were always this huge dispute about building the weapons. This is different.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, it's the same pattern. And the economist will tell you the same pattern every time. Like, this is what happened to nuclear power. This is what happened, which is another interesting one. But like, yeah, this happens dozens and dozens of times throughout the last 100 years. And this is what's happening now.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Shenanigans in the background. And they got the Fullstead Act passed, right? And they did, in fact, ban alcohol in the US. And you'll notice what happened, which is people kept drinking. It didn't work. People kept drinking that bootleggers made a tremendous amount of money. And then over time, it became clear that it made no sense to make it illegal and it was causing more problems. And so then it was revoked. And here we sit with legal alcohol 100 years later with all the same problems. And the whole thing was this giant misadventure. The Baptist got taken advantage of by the bootleggers and the bootleggers got what they wanted. And that was that.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But it turns out the way the story goes is it turns out that there were another set of people who very badly wanted to outlaw alcohol in those days. And those were the bootleggers, which was organized crime that stood to make a huge amount of money if legal alcohol sales were banned. And this was, in fact, the way the history goes is this was actually the beginning of organized crime in the US. This was the big economic opportunity that opened that up. And so they went in together. And they didn't go in together. The Baptists did not even necessarily know about the bootleggers because they were on their moral crusade. The bootleggers certainly knew about the Baptists and they were like, wow, this is these people are like the great front people for.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“An absolute true believer with absolutely the purest of intentions. And again, there's a very important thing here, which is you could look at this cynically and you could say the Baptists are like delusional extremists, but you can also say, look, they're right. She had a point. She wasn't wrong about a lot of what she said”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Child abuse. And so you had this group of people who were like, okay, this is bad stuff, and we shoutlaw it. And those were quite literally Baptists. Those were super committed, you know, hardcore Christian activists in a lot of cases. There was this woman whose name was Carrie Nation, who was this older woman who had been in this, you know, I don't know, disastrous marriage or something. And her husband had been abusive and drunk all the time. And she became the icon of the Baptist prohibitionist. And she was legendary in that era for carrying an axe and doing completely on her own, doing raids of saloons and taking her axe to all the bottles and eggs in the back.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Or say they The Baptists worry the bootleggers say they do So the Baptists and the Bootleggers is a metaphor from economics from what's called development economics. And it's this observation that when you get social reform movements in a society, you tend to get two sets of people showing up arguing for the social reform. And the term Baptist and Bootleggers comes from the American experience with alcohol prohibition. And so in the 1900s, 1910s, there was this movement that was very passionate at the time, which basically said alcohol is evil and it's destroying society. By the way, there was a lot of evidence to support this. There was very high rates of very high correlations then, by the way, and now between rates of physical violence and alcohol use. Almost all violent crimes have either the perpetrator or the victim or both drunk. If you see this actually in the work, almost all social harassment cases in the workplace, it's like at a company party and somebody's drunk. It's amazing how often alcohol actually correlates to actually just dysfunction. It leads to domestic abuse and so forth.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, I mean, look, the theory is augmentations. This is the Degelbert's term. Dege Engelbert made this observation many, many decades ago that basically it's like you can have this oppositional frame of technology where it's like us versus the machines. But what you really do is you use technology to augment human capabilities. And by the way, that's how actually the economy develops. We can talk about the economic side of this, but that's actually how the economy grows is through technology augmenting human potential. And so, yeah, and then you basically have a proxy or a prosthetic, you know, so like you've got glasses, you've got a wristwatch, you know, you've got shoes, you know, you've got these things.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Some sheep are better at justifying it, right? And those are the smart sheep, right? So, yeah, look, I would say this. Look, there are no panacea. I am not a utopian. There are no panaceas in life. There are no, I don't believe there are pure positives. I'm not a transcendental kind of person like that. But so yeah, there are going to be issues. And, you know, look smart people. Another thing maybe is you could say about smart people is they are more likely to get themselves in situations that are beyond their grasp because they're just more confident in their ability to deal with complexity and their eyes become bigger their their cognitive eyes become bigger than their stomach you know so yeah you could argue those eight different ways nevertheless on net right clearly overwhelmingly again if you just extrapolate from what we know about human intelligence you're improving so many aspects of life if you're upgrading intelligence”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah, exactly. Another one is smart people are very convinced that they have a more rational view of the world and that they have an easier time seeing through conspiracy theories and hoaxes and crazy beliefs and all that. There's a theory in psychology which is actually smart people. So for sure people who aren't as smart are very susceptible to hoaxes and conspiracy theories. But it may also be the case that the smarter you get, you become susceptible in a different way, which is you become very good at marshalling facts to fit preconceptions. Right, you become very, very good at assembling whatever theories and frameworks and pieces of data and graphs and charts you need to validate whatever crazy idea has got in your head. And so you're susceptible in a different way, right”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, and so it's smart, there are certain people where they get smarter, you know, they get to be more arrogant, right? So there's one huge flaw.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. And then, of course, you know, people add 140 IQ will be able to have a peer, right? To be able to communicate, which is great. And then people above 140 IQ will have an assistant that they can farm things out to. And then look, God willing. You know, at some point, these things go from future versions, go from 140 IQ equivalent to 150 to 160 to 180, right? Like Einstein was estimated to be on the order of 160, you know, so when we get 160 AI will be one assumes creating Einstein level breakthroughs in physics. And then at 180, we'll be, you know, caring cancer and developing warp drive and doing all kinds of stuff. And so it is quite possibly the case. This is the most important thing that's ever happened and the best thing has ever happened, precisely because it's a lever on this single fundamental factor of intelligence, which is the thing that drives so much of everything else.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And certainly at the collective level, we could talk about the collective effect of just having more intelligence in the world, which we'll have very big payoff. But there's also just at the individual level, like what if every person has a machine, you know, the concept of augment, Doug Engelbar's concept of augmentation, what if everybody has an assistant and the assistant is, you know, 140 IQ and you happen to be 110 IQ and you've got something that basically is infinitely patient and knows everything about you and is pulling for you in every possible way, wants you to be successful. And anytime you find anything confusing or want to learn anything or have trouble understanding something or want to figure out what to do in a situation, like any of these things, it will help you do it. And it will therefore, the combination will effectively be, you know, effectively raise your because it will effectively raise your IQ, therefore raise the odds of successful life outcomes in all these areas.”
2023-06-22 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source