YouSaid · the spoken record

Milton Berg

lines on the record: 121
first: 2024-03-04
most recent: 2024-03-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“Brooks coming out with, you know, I've been so busy working on the market, I haven't had time to work on the book, but everything we talk about in the market should be in the book as well. So really, it's an active process. Hopefully we'll get it out within a year, hopefully.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm not going to disguise, as I said earlier in the interview, these people looking for 60% decline from the next peak. They could be right this time because now the things are in line for a bull market peak. I'm not projecting that. I'd be happy with a 15% decline if I catch the bottom. I'd be happy with an 8% decline if I could catch the bottom. But I think the market is now set up for a major bear market. I think the bull market peak on an inflation adjusted basis occurred in 2021-2022. We had a long, long series of new highs on an inflation basis from 2009 to 2022. I think we headed with a longer-term inflation-adjusted beer market, how far down it goes, it's hard to say. With the government debt GDP ration at crazy levels, with the stock market valuation at historic highs, I can't discount these permanent bears who are looking for a 60% decline. I wouldn't call for it. Again, happy with 8% or 15% or 19% typical bear market decline.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“By now, as much as you think you'll make 10% over the next 20 years, you probably won't if you first down 60% to the next two or three years. So caveat MTOR, it's a nice game, the stock market. I put a lot of work into it. And we have our clients and most of them are happy with what we do and we do the best we can. And I really appreciate Jack. These interviews are always very, very good for me. For it gets me to think and you already have to write questions. We cover a lot of ground. And it's not superficial. It's in depth, which is very, very helpful to myself and helpful to the people who hopefully to the people who see this interview. Thank you.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Terms in short at the right time. Again, it's a trading point. I want to point out these great investors you mentioned in this earlier, we mentioned their names. All trade is as far as Warren Buffett's an investor is a great investor, but he's an investor, he's not a trader. But most of the famous hedge fund operators who've made a lot of money for themselves and for their client over the years, be it a Michael Steinhardt or be it people you mentioned, they're generally traders. They get in, they get out. They follow the data. They don't say, I'm going to buy the stock and hold it forever. Retail accounts generally get caught up in the idea of investing, investing, investing. Now, as they say, if you invest at average prices, you'll make the average return of 10% of the S&P 500. If it continues, act as it has been in the past. But if you buy at a peak, you're not going to make 10% over the long term. If you buy now, there are some student investors, the perma bears, but the great analyst who suggests the SP were down 60% over the next low.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're stale. Loads are totally stale. The news signals, you know, they didn't come off a bear market lows. They have less of an effect. And we're bothered by market action. Sales doesn't work differently. We don't get sales signals the same way we get bicycles. The market generally, stock market is generally bottom on a spike bottom, but markets generally top on a rounding, you know, mountainous mountaintop type of a top. You're seeing that kind of information. You're seeing the Russell peaking in December. You're seeing various reasons to believe we're at a top. But sell signals, we don't call them cell signals at the top. We call them indications of a potential top. And we have many indications of potential top. We need the market to confirm. I could assure you, if the market in the next week or so has a down 1% day on a downside gap, that would be a confirmation of the February 23rd gap side to the upside was a final high. We don't have that yet. We like the action in the individual.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Bicycles, we had 30 in November, about 30 in December, we had quite a number of bicycles. Again, they've met the minimum objective. The bicycles we had last January, which projected 4,800 to 5,000 S&P, turned out to work out”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We raise Kish, but we can't have more than two, you know, we have 6% of our portfolio in Brookshare. We can't have much more than that. But we consider that a source of funds. So we think Berkshire Athery is a great place to be in case there's a beer market. But I would like to say again, all this is theoretical, all this is speculative. All this is based on technical analysis and based on our view at the moment of you could change at any time. And it probably will change sometime, but it could change at any time. And I really appreciate the interview, Jack. And I enjoyed it. I think we covered a lot of basis here, which is really, really good.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So, if we're wrong about being short here, the market will go significantly higher in the next 12 months to 5,500 or so. But, you know, right now our stance is to be out of the market, to be negative, and to institute short exposure. Now, we have a long, lonely portfolio, long-only recommendations, which is really doing quite well. I'm nervous that some of these stocks will do poorly in a bear market, so I'm trying to get out of the stocks that have done well, stocks will overextended, and trying to get into stocks that have already declined. Maybe they will decline less if there is a beer market, although they are strong companies. For example, one of the companies we just recommended was PayPal. PayPal had a lot of competition, but it still has a great balance sheet. It's a great franchise, and it's showing earnings and it's down. Another one is Alibaba, which is a company that still shows earnings. It's been harassed by the Chinese government. The stock's down. But it's part of a market that's down 60%. So we think that's something to be a protection for us. Our greatest protection, we believe, is Brooks.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I have clients of Titans of Wall Street arranged in our cycle dates. And there's a cycle period began in February 24th. It ends on May 7th. It's likely that one major market will top during this period. It's high unlikely a major market will bottom because no markets are bottoming. So we think based on the current cycle date, which was February 24th, we think the February 23rd high in the CAC, high in Nikkei, high in the NASDAQ, high in the SP 500. Maybe a final top, especially as the gaps in that are high, especially the worldwide people talking about breakouts and higher action. We're willing to take a better and short. Now, normally you can go up to 2% short, but we're waiting for more confirmation. Why are you waiting for more confirmation? It goes in the back of my head. I do know that we had buy signals in October, November, December. We've met the minimum objectives, but we haven't met the median objectives. The minimum objectives are roughly 5,000 in the SP, which we reached. The median objectives are 5500 to 5,600 to 50 as high as 5650.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I could see it either way. I think the reason I'm willing to say it might be the start of a beer market is A, where a new all-time high in the SP500 and the NASDAQs, a beer market to begin from all-time highs. The technical indicators we see at an all-time high are in line with the top. The sentiment is at the top. Federal policy is at the top. Interest rates are kind of information you see at the top. There's a potential recession hedge, which nobody recognizes, which the fact that nobody recognizes is something you often see at the top. And you have excess speculation in good companies, which is something you don't always see at the top. Sometimes the excess speculation in weak companies. But seeing excess speculation in good companies, it's more likely to be a serious top. Like you saw the top of 1973 or in 1929, when the X speculation did not occur in small cap stocks, it actually occurred in high quality companies. That's why I think it might be a behermont peak. And on top of all that is the cycle date, which most people aren't interested in, but we...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you don't show the stock, there's no natural buyer. So, Chinese got it backwards, which is typical for communist countries to get these backwards, but they got it totally backwards. They should encourage short positions. Then the economy goes, because a short position won't affect the economy. The short position, take your stock down when the economy knows well, these guys will be forced to cover and you see the type of action we saw in Nvidia and in Supermicro and other stocks. So they're making a big mistake.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Motion of the video, we only showed at the basket. No, it's part of a basket. But why don't you point out something very interesting. I should have mentioned it earlier. One of the points I wanted to make, there are no shorts in Nvidia. There are no shorts instead of all shorts I've covered. I don't want to mention the name. There's a very famous short seller who's always bragging about Tesla and he's short Netflix. They got killed. You know, one of the guys you always see in the interviews, he made, I don't know if you have interviewed this fellow, but he's not pounding the table to show the short supermicrocomputer. Stan said, these stocks don't have shorts in them, which means it makes sense to go short these kind of stocks down. Early a year ago, maybe we were shorting these stocks, but currently nobody's shorting these stocks. You don't see shortages in these stocks. So another reason to think that the market's vulnerable. It's when you can. That's why they're making mistakes in China. China doesn't want people to short stocks. If you short stocks, you have natural buyers that come in from the market.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“You know, I also want to say when people are listening to interviews with high level investors, I think of like Stan Druckenmiller, you know, Stan Druckenmiller in 2022 said, oh, I'm pretty bearish. I think there's going to be a huge recession. And then his 13D or 13F file comes out and he owns NVIDIA and Eli Lilly. So, you know, and but that's because he was being honest when he said he shared his bearish views. It's just he changed his mind. Likewise, you could see something in the market that turns you extremely bullish over the next two weeks. And I don't want someone, you know, listening to this and saying, oh, I shorted the video because Milton Burg said so.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The stop walls will be on the basket, not on individual stock. If somebody owns the FBI, you ask him, what happens if Apple goes down 50% when you sold the S&P? We sell Apple? No, I only index, right? So this is my index of stocks to short. So if I decide that the market's going to rally, I will sell the index. Now, you asked me a good question. You realize the position is only 1%. If NVIDIA doubles, I'll be losing 1% of my portfolio.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That should decline great in the market if the market does decline. It's really a bet in the market, not a bet in the individual stocks. So that's a story. So is NVIDIA one of our names? Yeah, Nvidia is one of the names. Netflix is one of the names.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Only extended stocks on the assumption that the next decline will take the extended stocks down more than will take the non-extended stock. So example of the stocks for short is affirm holdings. One stock is a pretty low cap stock. We're short service now. We're short Palo Alto networks with short Spotify technologies. We're short Uber. We're short Zscaler. A short portfolio with 20 stocks is down. We're losing 2.15% on the portfolio at 1. We're up 4%. But this is fine. It's only 20%. It's 1% positioned in 20 stock. So it's a 20% of a portfolio. We can go up to 20% short. Mostly we're short indices. We don't generally short a basket of stocks. But we generally would not, this portfolio doesn't take long positions in individual stocks or short positions. We only short a basket based on a theme. This theme was basically overextended stocks.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's a long only, but when you're in your long, short portfolio, your macro portfolio, which stocks are you short? And also, I should say, you know, Milton, when you're short, I believe you're short NVIDIA, Super Micro, very.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's a new issue a few years ago. I happen to like the fundamentals of the company, but I bought it based on the technicals. We have a good position in Builder's first source, which also bought it on a breakout. It's one of our leading stocks. I earned Berkshire both on a technical basis, and I believe it's a method of, I can't put money into cash. Berkshire Hastaway is when I want to raise cash to portfolio, I put it to Berkshire Hathaway, and that's my source of funds when I find a stock to buy because I trust Warren Buffett and his team, not to speculate and to keep having enough cash out of hand. I think they have the highest cash they've had in history. Putting money into cash, yet there are operations, and that's not exposed to been doing very well.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Many of the stocks we own Adobe, we own, I can tell you the stocks we recommend in the list two months, Constellation Energy, which had a huge move yesterday. I think it was a 14% yesterday. I don't know why. We bought it.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Tell you what we do, 100% long only no leverage. What we do in Long Only Portfolio is we buy base the technicals. Now, I created a nine factor model to choose stocks. I don't only buy stocks with a nine-factor model. Nine-factor model basically is going to buy is great at buying stocks off a beer market low. It's not great at buying stocks during an extended up move. So what we're doing is combining that with really chart pattern type, you know, breaking out a basis. We look at earnings momentum as a technical rather fundamental earnings gains. People look at it as fundamental. In order to look at earnings as fundamental, you have to look at valuation. We don't look at valuation at all. We just look at the momentum of the earnings, momentum of the stock, and where the stock is breaking out of a base or not. We bought them, for example, standard microsystem. We bought what was breaking out of the base. It was up over 1,000%. And we held on to it. We had no reason to sell.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now the speculation in real estate, which are owned by institutions worldwide, the speculation in bonds, or I shouldn't say speculation in bonds, is a bear market in bonds which are owned by institutions worldwide. And blue chip stocks, or good quality stocks, which are owned by institutions don't own the Russell 2000, institutions don't own the small caps. Institutions don't own the junk. They own the quality. And the speculation is taking place on the quality. So I think it's more fatal to the economy and to the markets when it's the kind of stocks that most people own, most institutional owners that are going to have a problem rather than it's just the stocks at the margin that most institutions wouldn't touch that are having problems. That's the way I see it.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Did not occur because of a recession at all. I think the next beer market, if it does take place, will be tied to a recession. You'll see far greater declines than you currently see. And again, I want to point out again, there's not as much speculation now as you saw in 2021 in the low caps. I mean, in the SPACs and in the Kathy Wood type stocks, there's far greater speculation in really good companies and serious companies. And that's probably more fatal than speculation in companies that most institutions don't own.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The GDP ratio at the current level, of course, Joe Biden and the Republicans as well are trying to spend as much money as they can. But there's going to come a point where they just cannot. And it's interesting to bite them. And therefore, I think you really not going to have a problem of inflation. The most likely problem you're going to see is deflationary problem by the end of the next year. So initially, when you see rates coming down, inflation coming down, the Fed loosening, people are going to say, wow, this is bullish, but in fact, it's going to be bearish because it's going to be a turn from inflation to a deflationary forces. I think the market will sense that and the market will not rally when the Fed lows rate. The market will actually decline when the Fed lows rates because the market will sense that it's not a healthy disinflation, but it's more like a non-healthy disinflation towards deflationary forces. That's the way I see this situation. From 2021 to 2022, bad beer market was...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, I'm not sure I go long barns because it's a recession. Another thing I want to point out, which thanks for reminding me, is one about inflation. I don't think inflation is a risk. I'm not saying the markets go down because inflation would go higher. I think Marketing Rodan, because inflation will be tamed, because I think the reason, I don't think you could have runaway inflation when the debt to GDP ratio is 125 to 1, and when you look at off the books debt, it's more than 250 to 1. Back in the 1970s inflation, that's the GDP ratio was lowest in history. It actually made its actual low in 1980. It was coming off the post-war GP ratio is very high, and it kept declining, and then finally about 1980. So when the governments have the ability to borrow and ability to spend, then you could have inflation. But when you have the government...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Definitely, definitely. The fellow who discovered... The yield curve signal was amazing, but it's one signal for the stock market you have thousands of signals. It's an easier job to call the stock market than to call the economy. The economy is more difficult to call because there's so many aspects, there's so many people. Everyone in the world involved the economy. Not everyone in the world is involved in markets. So the market could show information on the margin that in economy is more difficult to recognize.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the Marcus Public had turned lower and it probably will be recession, or at least a major slowdown. Now, I don't want to go through the fundamentals, I studied the fundamentals. The fundamentals are not yet clear that there will be recession. You know why? Fundamentals are never clear that there'll be a recession until after the recession. Even the National Bureau of Economic Research was called recession calls in a year, a year and a half later because they really can't be convinced of recession. To suggest that you can call a recession before the recession takes place, you know, you get a great job as an economist in some financial bank because I don't know anyone who's been able to do it. But where I look at it, there are enough clues that we may have a recession, you know, the leading indicators down 23 months in a row. You had that inverted yield curve. You have the industrial production other than technology has been declining, oil production, oil parts production. I see many, many, many, many signs of a potential recession ahead. I'm not going to call a recession. I'm going to potentially call the market.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“There's so many stocks that are really not breaking out of bases but are just extending into up moves with gaps to the upside and so on. That's another reason to think that maybe we either have short-term top in the market or maybe a final peak in the S&P. If there's a final peak in the S&P, I believe it will not be, it will be associated with a recession because the last peak we saw in 2022 where the Russell went down 30%, NASA went down 30% as we went down 25% was a classic bear market not associated with recession. There was no recession in all there's some sort of a market slowdown. But if this is the final peak in the bull market on a nominal basis and a secondary peak on an inflation adjustment basis, I think it's finally about time it could be a recession. At this time, it's more likely a recession than the years ago, two years ago when everybody was calling for a recession. Everyone's calling for a recession in October 2022 and the market went higher. No one's calling for a recession now in February of 2023.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Speculative action in NVIDIA and many other AI type stocks. I actually have a list of stocks that were showing crazy action. And even things like Abercrombie and Fitch, for example, is an example of stocks that's showing tremendous action. Berkshire Hathaway is showing amazing upset action. I go through my list. We shorted 20 stocks for our macro portfolio at the basket. In other words, we're not trying to make money in any one individual stock. We're looking at the basket rather than use the NDX. We made our own basket of 20 stocks for short. These are basically extended stocks. But I'm amazed at how many extended stocks. When I see stocks that extended, everyone else is claiming bull market, bull market, bull market. Well, bull market don't see extended stocks. Bull market sees rational moves in stocks. Commodity tops take place when things look extended. And I don't go through the list now, but...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The day we sold, they would go without mouth. That's the day when $2,6.35 was the tie. The next day it went over it again, but next day the day crashed. Then you have create a channel of the clients that breaks above the channel. In this case, it broke above the channel for two days. It's between 70 and 120% above the moving average. SMCR is 238% above its two-day moving average. Volume on the climax run has to be the highest climax day, has to be at the highest of the run. Volume on February 16, 2024 was the highest in history for state of the microcomputer. And the greatest point change of the climax run must take place on that day. And that took place as well as the greatest point change. And we got out and that proved very, very well because the market collapsed since then. It's just showing normal action after climax stopped. Now, CCNC, a climax type and SMCI, you're seeing...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's 50% criteria. Normally I climax dop, the stock is up seven out of eight days or eight out of 10 days. SMCR is up nine out of 10, 13 out of 14 days into its high. Usually there's one or two exhaustion gaps into a final high. SMCI had its second exhaustion gap into its final high.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“We balanced it once during the year, but took it back down to 5%. But after the first rebalancing, it went up to 14% again. And now it's only 2.5% of the portfolio. We're showing an 858% unrealized gain on the stock. We sold the stock. We actually sold the stock in the daily high for this portfolio. And why do we sell the data high? Because you saw the kind of speculation that you see at a market peak. We saw a climax top, and that's number 25. We showed what's the criteria for a climax top. Climax top is really an emotional top. Criteria number one, the stock has to rise. First of all, the stock has to have an extended move. Climax stops don't take place awful. Climax stocks take place after the stock has already risen in quite a while. First of all, in the climax stop, the stock rises 25 to 50 percent over 1 to 3 week period. SMCI, which is what super microcomputer it's called, gained 102% over a three-year period above the 50%.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Okay, you see number 25 SMCI. We were, let me tell you a long, only portfolio. Now, we really weren't any information I give as far as our positions or as far as our return is all theoretical. We have a long early portfolio, but it's all theoretical. In other words, we recommend, buy, recommend, sell, but unlike most analysts, we track all recommendations. When we recommend the buy price, we use average prices rather than specific price. We use average price over a few hours, sometimes over a day, sometimes over two days. And our portfolio is up 18.47% on the year through yesterday's close, through the close of February 27th. Well, one of our largest positions was super microcomputer. We bought it over a year ago. We bought it on technical base. I had no idea they were in AI. I actually had no idea what they do. All I do is make sure it has a good balance sheet before I buy a stock. And that ultimately became over 14% of our portfolio.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I like to point out that August 25, 1987, which was the final high before the Cretaceous 1987, was a CSP 500 Montgomery Cycle date. I'd like to point out that February 23rd, 2024, which might be proved to be the final highest bull market that began in 2009 on a normal basis. It's also a cycle date, so it's a reason to try to pinpoint a peak and start going short as long as the market continued confirming the kind of stuff we are seeing. Let's talk about individual stocks.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The October 20th, 2021 peak was a cycle date. And you look at the charts, you can see why are they saying I'm bringing the back of the cycle dates? Why? Because the first cycle date of the current series centered on February 24th, 2024. So with the SP making its high in February 23rd, with the gaps into the high, with the 2.10% gain, which you hadn't seen in over year, with the FOMO with what's going on with SMCI was going on in Nvidia, a lot of emotion in the market, and it's quite possible that this series of cycles into May 7th. So this cycle date may not be the one that turns the market, but you don't know whether on March 10th or March 25th, you'll see the same type of emotion in the market. The only time cycles work is if the markets have a new high or low end is an emotional aspect of the market. I would point out that on October 11th, 2007, which was the final high of the bull market of 2007, final date of the high was Montgomery.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“23, which was a cycle date, and you had a historic move since then. Crude, I'll skip crude oil, sp500, also bottomed October 27, 2023, which was a cycle date as well. So why are we talking about cycle dates? We could skip all these charts now. Bitcoin cycle is the best, by the way, but we missed. We thought yesterday's high in Bitcoin might be the final high because it was the final day of the cycle day, but it was up significantly today. So Bitcoin hasn't cycled. But Bitcoin, since it trades strictly on emotions, it doesn't trade any fundamentals at all. And since all cycle dates tell you is when the emotions were marketed, the emotions of the participants of the market may shift. Bitcoin has been the greatest asset we have found that trades on cycle data. It used to be gold and silver. Now it's Bitcoin even more than gold and silver. And basically, as you can see, the May 11th.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Really, I know what they are, and the decline 12% in 111 days. Bottom down November 13th, 2023 cycle date, and it rallied 10% in 15 days. That's gold. Silver similar action. The gold minus similar action. KBW, the bank index, BKX, May 4th, 2023, we showed the bear market low on an entry basis for the banking index was a Montgomery cycle date. So after 60% decline, 37% decline is 60 days, but I think it was a 60% decline off its highs. the banking index botted on the cycle date and that basically cycle date basically is hold it tested that cycle low on October 27 2023 which two ones in Montgomery cycle date so you had two major lows in the banking index both occurred on cycle dates the stocks index philosophy semiconductor index bottom 27th 2023 and it peaked on october 12 2023 both of them were cycle dates that it declined it made it lower on october 31st”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, October 27th was a cycle date. The low in China, October 24th, 2022 was a cycle date. So yeah, cycle dates turn not just stocks, turned as many markets. Cycle dates turn the emotions. When there's an emotional market, it basically turns the emotions. I mean, this has been documented by studies in Yale, but how do I get into documentation? I just want to stick with the data. Whenever there's a cycle date and markets are making a new high and the signs of emotional market, it makes sense to bet that the emotion will turn to the other side. You don't know what the news will be. Cycles don't tell you what the news will be, but Jeff will tell you that the market is primed for a change in the emotional aspect of the market. So that's why I want to get to cycles. We're near the end, maybe near the end of a conversation, maybe not. But I'm going to show charts of various indices that turned on cycle dates. For example, we show gold peaked on May 4th, 2023 after getting 27.4%. It was a Montgomery cycle date. I'm not going to tell you what cycle dates are. You have to be a subscriber.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“U.S. stocks will in the next beer market. But yes, China, I don't want to argue that China tested low, it's a successful test, but based on trial pattern alone, the tested alone January 22nd may hold, but I think it's highly unlikely that China is going to rally if the United States is peaking. So you could argue, well, China is bottoming, and therefore they'll move up along with the US and France and the worldwide. Or you can argue, no, China is a canary in the coal mine, and China really was an engine of world growth for quite a number of years. And maybe the fact that China market tested alone January 22nd make it to you lower, and maybe we'll drag down the whole rest of the world. I don't know. I can see it both ways, but China is something we look at very closely. We traded the October 24th, 22nd law because that was the cycle date. Now we want to talk about cycle dates, because when I talk about cycle dates, people usually shut off your show. They say, one guy, one guy I count was everyone was fine until he started talking about cycle dates. That's why I left cycle dates for the end.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I would challenge China. We traded China pretty well. China bought on October 4th, 2022, gained 60% to January 27, 2028. It's on a downtrend. However, it's low of October 24, 2022, it's held. On January 22nd of this year, it traded on an intraday basis, 1.60% above its low of October 24, 2022. So that might be a successful test to the low. I actually added two Chinese stocks to my loan portfolio. I added Baba and I added Futu, one of the financial stock, one's a retail stock, on the assumption that even if we get a beer market, maybe these stocks that are so far down already will hold. I'm looking for in my long only portfolio, which I'll get to in a moment, which is doing extremely well this year, up like 18% on the year, what we don't use leverage, we only go long stocks. I'm trying to find defensive issues. I'm sitting with China as offensive, cheap China stocks are defensive issues, not that they may go up in price, but maybe they go down less in price.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It's actually gained 1.45% in 16 years. That is breaking out above the December 12, 27 high. But again, this breaking out is taking out of a gap. Normally a breakout in the gap is very bullish and maybe they'll be right. Maybe it'll break out. At this point, after interpreters being bearish, where the Europeans are looking over the shoulder, looking across the pond to America, seeing a great bull market in America and saying, how we need a bull market as well, and let's get in at any cost, even though we're at a new all-time high, both in nominal terms and in US dollar terms. That's how I'm interpreting. Again, I could be wrong, and if I'm wrong, I'll know soon enough. Market will continue higher. But that's how I'm interpreting what you see. And you see saving in Japan, by the way. Japan's finally at a 35-year high, whatever it is. And, you know, Japan, fundamentally, Japan may have some things going for it. Warren Buffett has been buying Japan. But these market makers in all Taiwan is all over the world at the same time. When you declare speculation, United States, where I see it,”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“AI craze has been taking markets to new highs. The Paris CAC 40 has made a new all time high in local currency. It's actually up 14.85% above its high of September 4th, 2000. So September 4th, 2000 to February 23, 2023, the Paris CAC and local currency is up 14.85% in 24 years, less than half a percent a year. It's kind of kind of crazy. But the question is people are arguing that the Paris”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In 2020, it was up 49%. In 2009, it was up 43%. In 1998, it was up 32%. In 1990, it was up 34%. And 87 was up 26%. Currently, it's only up 25%. In only one instance where it gained less, which was off of 2002 low, it was only up 11% by day 82. But in that case, as you know, the market retested its lows in March of 2003. You can argue that Russell is within its parameters of a normal bull market move. However, it really isn't because X-2002, the Russell, considering how long the bull market lasted in the SBFR, we're considering the momentum, the unprecedented momentum you're seeing in the SP500 or for corrective low, you would have expected the Russ 2000 to gain far more than 25.61% to day 82. Now I want to talk about European markets, if you don't mind. Because it's not only the NVIDIA...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“that the Russian 2000 has all seen a series of gaps on the 14th, 22nd, January 3rd, 22nd, February 9th, February 2nd, February 15th, February 27th. And through all those gaps, it wasn't able to make a higher high above the 727th high. You saw a gap on the January 3rd, 22nd, February 9th, 12th, 15th, and 17th, 27th, and all those gaps, signs of people willing to buy the Russell, still not able to get above its high of December 27th. This again is what we call churning at a top. I call churning at a top is exhaustive action. It's a sign of a market peak. So this is not healthy action in the Russell 2000. Then I show you however I show it's 82 days. It's 82 days since the Russell 2000 generated bear market decline on October 27th. The bear market was down 32.99%. We're now 82 days into the new bull market. Usually do through the 82 in the bull market.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Just open up higher, it opens higher than a number of days previously. You can actually see some people misinterpret what gaps are. The fact that a market opens hour doesn't mean it's a gap. It has to open up higher than the previous, it can't open, it's not enough when opens higher than previous day's close. It has to open up higher than the previous day's high. It's not enough to open up higher than previous close. That happens very often. One great technician, by the way, who keeps making this mistake. I don't know why. He has a newsletter and he keeps making this mistake. He calls a gap when it's not a gap. A gap must open above the previous day's high. A downside gap must open below the previous day's low. And that's a rare event in the SP. You don't get the chart. It's a very rare event in the SP500. So that's one reason why it's commanded like action and therefore what's perceived to be bullish action, momentum, is more like blow-off action where you're seeing commodities. Russell 2000, I write portrait of a sick market. That's the next chart. I just show basically.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Low volume that suggests this is exhaustive and all of these people who are latecomers to the bull market are going to be possibly holding the bag at these highs.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The point was volume was light. I think the S&P volume was only the fourth highest in the previous month. So you had a gap up 2.11%, greatest movement in over a year, and the volume was the fourth highest in the month. It wasn't even great volume. Breath was very weak on that day. So this is a kind of action, exhaustive action you see at Final Market Peaks. And guess what? The market did peak the following day. So that's one thing I want to point out. This series of gaps is unheard of in the SP500. You look at the chart, when you look at all these gaps since October, people are arguing bullish, bullish, bullish, great momentum. Look at this great. And I'm arguing, yes, it was bullish coming off the lows. And the action has been great off the lows. But the fact that this gap upside action is continuing after 20%, if you're up 22%, and you're seeing this 2.11% gain.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“gain in the SE00 since august 10, 2022. It wasn't just a gap up where people say I'm going to buy above the previous close. It's that they took the market up 2.11%, which was its greatest gain in over way over a year. The NDX gapped on the same day of 3.01% for his greatest gain since the 77th, 2021. But guess what?”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“November 14th, November 22nd, January 19th, January 22nd, February 2nd, February 7th, February 22nd. Now, gaps cutting off a low, gaps off a low are considered breakaway gaps. They're considered early move gaps. They're generally bullish when they're coming off below. Gaps coming off an extended move is considered bearish because they call exhaustive gaps. It's fear of missing out. People are buying stocks regardless of what the fundamentals are. Now, you usually don't see gaps in the SP500. You really don't. You usually see gaps in individual stocks. It's very difficult to get gaps in the SP500. But look, since January, January 19th, 22nd, February 2nd, February 7th, and finally on February 22nd, but February 22nd wasn't just a gap. February 22nd was the day before the February 23rd final high. And that day, the SP gained 2.11%, if you recall. And on that day, that gained 2.11%, you have to realize that was its greatest.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, before that, we got to get into the most important. I left the most important stuff to the end, so we have to get to the most important stuff. And you have to see the chart viz. This is number 21. It's generating a series of upside and downside gaps. This is commodity-like action. Let me give you an example. Okay. When you see a gap, a gap in a blue chip index is a very rare commodity, a very rare thing to see because blue chip stocks, there's no reason for them to gap up or gap down. There's analysis people follow the companies. They really very, very difficult to get many surprises. And at N at Market Peaks, you see gaps. I point out the gap you saw on December 7th, 2021 and December 23rd, 2021, leading to the February 3rd to the mark, January 3rd peak in the S&P. So a gap of March 29th, 2022, leading to the next peak in the SP 500 on a beer market rally. But let's talk where we are now. So an upside gap, November 2nd, November 1st.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Russell was not faltering. Russell was actually making peaks along with the S&P. It's just that Russell had a bull market peak earlier. But during that rally to the SPI in August, for example, the high in July 31st, I'll give you exact numbers. The SB made a high on July 31st, index GPO, it made its closing high into the high on July 31st last year. Let's see what the Russell did. Russell made its high last year on July 31st, exact same time, you see. I say beer market rallied peaks. They move in the same direction. It's at the final peak in the bull market. If you see the Russell lagging in the SCP 500 continuing higher.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT