YouSaid · the spoken record

Milton Berg

lines on the record: 121
first: 2024-03-04
most recent: 2024-03-04
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

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“After the Russell. Now, currently, assuming the February 23rd high holds, assuming the high in the Russell holes, Russell picked on December 27th, 2023. And I think that high is holding, let's see where we are. They were close to that high again, but Russell's down 7.2. I said, that high is still holding. The 727-2023 high is holding. And SCP peaked on February 23rd, a 398 divergence. Now, the median is 38 days, but now 39 days. This is typical action at a bull market peak. And the logic is people are going to chase the high quality blue chips, high-quality SP stocks into a top and ignore the lower quality stocks at a market top. And that's exactly what has happened in the past. Exactly what's happening now. So I think that's another indication that perhaps we're seeing a major market peak coming up in the SP 500, which was led by the Russell 2000, which is very, very, very typical.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“November 8th, 2021 peak in the Russell 2000, Datsby didn't peak until January 3rd, 2002. There was a 38-day divergence. Russell peaked 38 days before the S&P did. Again, at the 2018 peak, the S&P peaked on September 20th, 2018, while the Russell peak on August 31st, a 13-day divergence, or August 31st, 2018, the 13-day divergence, the Russell led. In 2007, the Russell peaked on July 13, 2007, and the SB peaked on October 9th, which was a 61-day divergence. In the year 2000, the Russell peaked on March 9th, 2000, while the SAP peaked on March 24th, 2004, an 11-day divergence. And in 1998, the S&P peaked on July 17th, while the Russell peaked on April 21st for a 61-day divergence.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, yeah, right, exactly. Let's see somebody else over here. This is all very quite significant. We've pointed out that at bear market lows, real bill market lows, the banking index and the SAP bottom within days of each other were the exact same day. What about market peaks? Now at peaks and bear market rallies, believe it or not, the Russell 2000 and the SBA had peaked roughly the same day. So you got a bear market again in 2021-22. At the March bear market rally, the Russell and the S&P peaked on the same day. At the August peak in August 2022 beer market rally peak, the Russell and the S&P peaked on the same day at the February 2nd beer market rally peak, the USP 500 and the Russell peaked on the same day. Now, if the SAP wasn't a beer market rally, but basically at bull market pixie is something totally different. A bull market peaks, for example, at the”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Not seeing that. But you are seeing more sophisticated speculation, you see You see rational people who manage your real money for institutions who are basically saying this is a new internet. Maybe they'll be right.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm saying, you know, there is someone, an influencer, I won't name his name, but people probably will know I'm talking about who in 2020 and 2021 was saying, oh, I'm making so much money buying stocks. I mean, Warren Buffett, maybe he was good back in the day, but I'm better than Warren Buffett.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Said, you know, he talked about how many airline companies began and if the Wright brothers and how many they were under, how many car companies began. He said, look, how many internet companies are beginning? They're probably going to be bankrupt. Meanwhile, Jeff Bezos says he read that interview and based that interview, he changed his method of managing the company. He didn't want Buffett to be right. So nobody recognized in 2000 that Amazon would be what it became. And you look at Apple and Warren Buffett didn't invest in Apple until 30 years after they became a great company.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, most analysts who compare this market in a sense to the 1973 peak with the Nifty 50 Polarity's been Kodak, you know, both those companies don't exist any longer. McDonald's was one of them, which had a great run over the last 50 years. So McDonald's was won in SD-50. But, you know, they compared it to that instance with a small cap stock peaked in 68, never made a new high in 1973, while the blue chips made significantly higher highs on the non-inflation adjusted basis in 1973. Of course, on an inflation adjustment basis, none of them made new highs. That's one instance. In the past, in 2000, you did not see speculation in blue chips. Speculation in companies are really, well, Amazon in retrospect became a great company, but you didn't know it in the year 2000. Maybe some people knew it, but most people didn't recognize the value of Amazon until years later. Look at the Warren Buffett. He now praises Amazon, but I remember the interview he had with Forbes when he...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Milton, but how often is it that a bull market peaks when there is speculation only in high quality companies that are growing their earnings consistently in a high quality manner? In other words, the ordeal speculation doesn't flow over into the low cap companies and you have CEOs that have never made a penny of revenue in the company's life talking about how they're basically they can bring people back to life basically, you know what I mean?”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Absolutely greatest, but as far as the real solid companies with good balance sheets and good earnings, there's far greater speculation now than you saw either in 2000 or in 2021. I mean, 2000, because Amazon was one of the speculative stocks, but you had pets.com. You had all these crazy, crazy companies that didn't know how they're going to show earnings. And you saw that again in 2021. In a sense, we saw it in the spec and so on. But now you're seeing speculation in real companies. Wow. So people always seem to have real companies. It's not speculation. But Benjamin Graham would say, you know, if you're paying more than a company's worth, you're speculating, regardless of how great the balance sheet is and how great the prospects of earnings are. If you're overpaying, you're speculating. If you're underpaying, you're investing. And I would say there's more speculation now than you sort the 2000 peak. I'm talking to blue chip stock and good stocks, far more than you saw now, far more than you saw.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Technical verges you saw in March of 2000 kind of lofts you saw in 1929. You didn't see that earlier to make that 16% call for 60% decline. But now it's possible if this is a peak, this might be a more important peak than the peak we saw in January of 2022 or in November of 2021 in the NASDAQ. Definitely far greater speculation in the NASDAQ. Listen, there was far greater speculation in these crazy archetype stocks, you know, the Kathy Woods type stocks, far greater speculation in 2020, 2021 than you're seeing now.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'll make a big picture call here. You're right. It's a big picture call. I'm saying that the great bull market we've seen since October 2022, maybe in retrospect won't be considered a great bull market at all. First of all, on an inflation justice basis, we're not at new highs. Second of all, with the fact that the banks lagged and the Russell lagged, there's something very, very strange about this so-called great bull market. It's just not typical to see in a great bull market. And the same argument could have been made in March of 2000 when the S&P was doing great and the National was doing great, but Equal Weight SAP was not doing great. So you can say, you know, it's very similar. So I'm making a big picture call. In other words, these perma bears out there, and you know these perma bears who are looking for 60% decline in the S&P, and they've been saying it all along, they may finally be right, but the timing was terribly wrong. But now they may finally be right because now he's trying to see technical divergences that you didn't see in January of 2022.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Wrong I'm talking in terms of relative strength. At bull market peaks, there's a group or a small number of groups that are showing much stronger relative strength than other groups that are still rising. In other words, we're talking about relative strength, but they are still moving in the same direction and still making new highs, but the oils will make new highs up 10%, while technology making new highs up 20%. But in this instance, you're not seeing new highs. You're seeing they're moving in the same direction, but they're not making new highs. So that's all a different concept.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“In the normal healthy market, these indices move together. We said the banking index moves along the normal healthy market. Normal healthy market, the equal weighted and the cap weighted move in the same direction.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Milton, what does it indicate about the market when the Equal weight fails to peak, or if it peaks after the peak of the market cap weighted action, some people say, okay, the Russell 2000 stocks or the smaller cap stocks, they're more economically sensitive. A lot of them are unprofitable. I think there's a quality issue because there's so many IPOs, but that's a non-technical factor. So it's bearish. In other words, the amount of advancing stocks gets narrower and narrower and breadth declines, ultimately leading to a pullback.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“They're all equally weighted. Rebalancing, Bloombergs rebalances their index once a month. We rebalance ours daily. And in any event, the pattern you're seeing now matches the pattern of 2000. And the SE 1500, it does not. The smaller caps continue higher. But the SP500, which peaked in 2000, it peaked in July 1999, while the SP cap weight index peaked in March of 2000. In our case, the S&P equal weight peaked in January of 2022, while the cap weight index baby peaking now in February of 2024.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So the equal weight doesn't always move along. But in this case, what you're seeing is the S&P 1500 peaking in 2022, while the S&P weight is peaking now. So I don't know, just straight type of action, strange type of action tells you maybe something is different. SP500, on the other hand, SP500 is showing the same thing. Basically, the SP500, and this, yeah, in the year 2000, not all 1,500 stocks, the SP500 in the year 2000 peaked on an equal basis, peaked before the March 2000 peak in the S&P 500 cap-weighted index. So let me get this straight. The S&P 500 unweighted, number one, it's below its high of its all-time high of January 2022. And it's interesting that at the peak in March 24th of 2000, the S&P equal weight also were not able to exceed its high. July 1999.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Momentum we've seen and if the breath is real breath it's highly it's very strange that an equal weighted SP 1500 is not above its high now I wanted in the chart in 18 the last chart chart four in number 18 I showed that at the peak in the in the year 2000 the SP equal weighted the SB 1500 equal weighted index continued higher after the peak in the SB 1500 cap weight index is totally opposite situation the SB peaked in March and the equality index didn't peak until early 2002 very strange”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Yeah, well, the Russell bottom in October 2023, and it had its greatest rally since going back over a year to its greatest percentage gain. I can get that in a minute. But the reality is what's the greatest percentage gain on an equal weighted basis, it wasn't able to go above its February 2nd high, although it did get above it on a cap-weighted basis. Then I look at the equal weighted SP 1500. We look at the SP600, 400, and 500. On equal weighted basis, The SP 1500, again, it's way above its January 3rd, 2022 high, but on equality basis, it's also below its January 2023 high. It's actually below its December 27th of this year. December 27th, 2023 was higher on an equal weighted basis than February 23rd, 2024, which is really, really, very strange.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now let's look at some other things. Let's look at the Russell 2000. Let's look at the equal weight indices. Many people have been talking about the equal weight indices. And how are the equal weight indices giving us any clues to what's really going on in the stock market? So the most important thing that I've noticed about the Russell 2000 equal weight index, which you don't get on Bloomberg, is that the latest high on December 27th was below the February 2nd high on an equal weighted basis. So while on a nominal basis, the Russell 2000 is above its bear market rally highs in July of 2022 and in February of 2023 and so on. This nice bull move in the Russell 2000 is inconsistent with what you'd expect in a real bull market in the Russell 2000.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I'm going to have to check into that. I don't think it happened at all in the bull market. You have to realize a 23.59% gain in 80 days after just a 10% correction is not normal action in the S&P 500. I mean, people are recognizing that. People are saying, you know, this is a historic move in the stock market. Yes, it's a historic move. Is it bullshit or is it bearish? That's really the question. I agree it's a historic move. But Jack, I will check that out for you because I'm curious as well whether we've seen that at all. Okay, I'm curious as well. I think we may have just seen it in 1999 to 2000, I believe. July 1999, you had a correction of 10% and then you had to blow off into March. So that might be the only time you've seen it, which was a blow off top. In 2000, I showed 14.5% in 19 days. That was the final 19 days. It was far greater than that in the Nasdaq. And I'll have to get the data for you. But whether it was in extending bull market, you saw that, highly unlikely. But I will check it out. Okay.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Oh, how many instances, in other words, a 10% decline followed by a pretty vigorous 24% rally? That's what we've had since November 1st. I mean, how many times has that occurred during a bull market versus 1929, right? There's only been one 1929. Whereas I imagine it must have happened a lot during a bull market.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right. Now, again, you see it in commodities all the time. You don't see it in stocks all the time. And I'm trying to argue that the S&P and the Nasdaq and the AI stocks are acting commodity-like rather than stock market-like. And the last time we saw this type of action really was 1929. I don't want to compare our market to 1929. I just want to say is that that blow-off top was very similar to the type of, if this is a blow-off, if this is a blowoff, I mean, you can argue this is a momentum surge and it's going to go much higher. See reasons why we doubt that. But right now, I say most comparisons to 1929 and to 1968. 1968 was also a very major market top, as you know. I pointed out on inflation adjusted basis, the market peaked in 66. In our case, the market peaked in 2021 and now 2024. And then it didn't bottom until 1982. So I don't know when we'll bottom if this is actually the top.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“However, at 1929, Peak, the Dow Jones Industrials gained 31.65% in 77 days, and the S&P, which wasn't 500, I think, was 90 stocks then, gained 29.90% in 82 days. So we're up 23.59% in 80 days compared to 31 and 29% in 77.82 days. If this is a blow off, if the type of blow-off we saw at that major historical bull market peak in 1929, and maybe similar to 1968, where you saw 23.54%, but that took out another 64 days as opposed to our 80 days.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Now that sounds quite amazing. 10% correction of bull market and 63 days of 23.59% quite amazing. The question is, can this be considered blow-off type action based on simply based on percentage changes? Now let's look at historical blow-off action. 1957, the SAP peaked up 15.9% in 105 days. In 1968, the SAP gained 23.54% in 164 days after a 10% correction. Then you see 12% in 73 to the top, 18% in 1980, 21% in 1987 in 67 days. So at 23.59% gain in 80 days, it's at the high end of a blowoff. You might argue it can't be a blowoff. If you just gain too much in an eight-day period.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Anyway, it's the first point I want to point out. We have to understand, and that's chart 15, just for your BKX SPX, we see the divergence between the banking indices and the SP indices. And it's very, very strange because usually it's a banking, it's a financial system that is in trouble during a bear market and usually by the time that bottoms, the SAP is going to bottom and people no longer, and that hasn't happened this time. It's just one piece of information. Now there's another thing to look at, and that is even Borgia. It depends how you look at markets. Let's look at blow off tops. The SP 500, going back to 1957, has had a number of blow-off tops. Blow offs meaning a sharp gain over a short period of time after a correction within a bull market. So we had a 10.28% correction into October 27th. And since then, a 63 days, the SP has gained 23.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“But there's some major difference between this bull market, and it's not just the banking industry. As you know, it's other indices as well. It's a small cap indices. Russell 2000, for example, or even the S&P's small cap indexes. Let me see SML. S&P small cap made the bear market low, not along with the S&P and went to NASDAQ, but they made the bear market lows in October of 2023. There's something different about this market. I'm not talking about breadth and broadening of the market. I'm talking about actually directional action. Markets are making lows while the SP Vulnerable was way off, way, way off its lows. It weren't coincident. Something different about this market. Now, the difference might be what I was saying earlier is that the real bull market peak occurred in 2021, 2022. On an inflation adjusted basis, we're not at a new high. And all these realities are ultimately going to be considered bear market rallies on an inflation adjusted basis. As long as you don't make a new high, these rallies will be considered bear market rallies.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, but by the time he got up 60%, people were no longer bearish in China. China was up from October to January. How many months is that? Three months? Up 60%. If you recall at the time, people were convinced that the low was in it and China. At that time, China, they made some policy changes. So I'm just trying to point out. I'm just pointing out your argument, let's see what the back industry could have done. Let me actually get the exact gain we've seen. The banking index generated its intraday peak on May 9th, 2023. And again, 39.56% in 185 days. I mean, considering it was down 60%, that is not a tremendous up move for that index. The reality is we have to ask yourself, why has banks continued lower, even though the S&P 500 was going higher? Why is that? I don't know. I'm a technical analyst. I don't know why it is. I just know that it's different and this difference may make a difference. Maybe it does make a difference.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“I can throw a ton of fundamental reasons at you that longtime listeners to the show definitely will. We've covered the banks a lot on forward guidance. But hasn't there been a huge rally in the banks from October to late January?”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The SQs are hard to do in the banking. They both bottomed on February 11, 2016. December 24, 2018, the SFP and the banking index bottomed the exact same day. And on March 23rd, 2020, after the COVID crisis, the banking index, the SP 500 bottom, the same exact same day. Lo and behold, we have a new bear market that began in 2021, November or 2022, January for the banking index actually began in January along with the S&P. The S&P declined some 22, 23, 25 percent into October 2022. And the banking index declined 60%. And in the bottom until May of May or October, actually of 2023. There's amazing divergence, meaning the banking index is lagging in the SP 500.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Are a very important part of our economy. At major market lows, for example, in 2002, October 9, 2002, both the SP 500 and the KBW Banking Index bottomed the exact same date, October 9, 2002, which was the final low in a beer market. On March 9, 2009, the S&P made a final beer market, devastating beer market on 50%. And the BKX, the KBW Banking Index, actually made it lower the day before. So it led by a day, but basically the bottom did the exact same time of March 6, 2009 and March 9th, 2009. Even the mini beer market in 2011, which was a 19% decline in the SP500, we call that a mini beer market. The SP500 and the banking index both bottomed for the final low in the beer market on October 3rd, 2011. So too, at the correction in 2016.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“As much as people are saying the Fed is going to loosen, let's assume that's even a bullish factor, but if they're going to loosen because there's a recession, it's not necessarily bullish after the market has rallied. If the market will be down 30%, it would be October of 2022. And then people say, you know, inflation is down and the Fed is probably going to loosen. If they do loosen, that might be bullish. But if they're loosening with the market at an all-time high on a non-inflation adjusted basis, it's not necessarily reason to be bullish. As I say, the market made an all-time high in October of 2007. It has to be an all-time high, while the S&P, the Fed actually loosened the load rates in September of 2007. So it's not that simple that just because people think the federal low rates is reasonably that the market's going too higher. Let's take one major aberration. One thing is so strange in this market. We've never seen it before. Okay. And that is the banking index, the BKX.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Right, right. And I can't say, I can't say that will not happen. I can't say it will happen, but I'm suggesting we're at the blow off top. Let me give you a little indication. I don't want to talk about the fundamentals. Let's accept the fact that it's possible we will have a recession in late 2024. Let's not discount and say we cannot have a recession. I mean, you know, you had many great economists on your show, and they're saying the business cycle has not been violated. You know, leading indicators are down 23 months in a row. Of course, the momentum of that decline has slowed a little bit, but leading indicators down 23 months in a row, which is typical of what you see prior to recessions, the real inverted yield curve using the 90 day and the 10-year, I think it's 14 months since in inverted. Normally the recession begins 13 months after it inverted. So it's just one month later off the typical. There are many reasons to believe to say we could have a recession.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“So you named a lot of a few reasons to be bullish, a few reasons to be bearish. What gives you confidence, Milton, that, okay, things are maybe a little extreme. The momentum is fervorish, let's say the greed index is at 70, but as you know, the greed index is at 70, it can go to 100. Like people were maybe too bullish and the end of 1998, but that didn't stop a blow off top that was very painful to be short. So how does this differ from a late bull market that is going to explode to a blow off top?”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The momentum is always good. Momentum is always momentum. It's either good or bad. It's in context of when is it taking place? If strong momentum is taking place when people are skeptical of the market or where the market is within a month or two or for low or for a significant low, then the momentum is good. For example, if I was convinced that the lower in the Russell on February on October 27th 2023 was a bear market low for the broad market, this momentum coming a quarter of a year after that low is very bullish. However, since I know and you know that the real bullet low took place in October of 2022 and now we're 18 months roughly past that low, this momentum no longer may no longer be bullish momentum, especially since there are other factors that are taking place that are totally consistent with market peaks. And then we'll see in a moment there's reasons to think that this action is commodity-like rather than stock market-like action. There are many other bullshit we could talk about.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Marcus Peak has throw momentum. Generally, the SP500 peaks in low momentum. But there are times that markets act as if they are commodities. For example, in 2000, the Nasdaq peaked at high momentum. It didn't peak on low momentum.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“When everyone is bullish, it's not bullish. Momentum is great when momentum is unexpected and taking place when people are expected a declining market rather than an advancing market. When you see strong momentum because everyone and his friend is buying stocks because AI craze, when you see momentum at that point, that is momentum you see at the top, which is the kind of thing I like to point out a little later. So I say yes, February 14th, a bicycle, which in the past, it only happened four times in the past, but the gains are 45, 65, 69% for next 10% correction. On the other hand, first, it's not one of our greatest indicators, you know, because it's just based on the Russell and it's based on just a few factors. But on the other hand, sometimes strong momentum rather than being bullish is bearish, which is clear, you see that clearly in commodities. And my argument actually is that the kind of action we're seeing in stocks now is commodity-like action where momentum rather than being bullish, momentum was actually bearish. And commodities...”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“And the TRIN at that point, 25-day trin was 1.25, which is to the high side. And that has occurred only three times before, all times followed by strong, strong bull moves in the stock market, in the S&P. So on March 10th, 2009, April 2nd, 2009, and May 21st, 2012. Each of these cases, the market gained 61%, 45%, 69% before the next 10% correction. So there are reasons, things that I look at that suggest the market could go higher. However, these are offset by other things that I'm seeing in the marketplace, which suggest that the market actually is making a peak. And all the so-called momentum that we're seeing in January, February, our negative momentum rather than positive momentum because it's taking place not climbing a wall of worry. It's taking place when there's no wall of worry.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Very extreme. And the breath is at levels that you see at bull market peaks. Let's get to, I think we should get to it. It's up to you, but there are many other things we can get to. I want to stress there are many bullish background reasons to be bullish. It's not the kind of things I hear from analysts because analysts don't have the same kind of indicators that I have. I mean, even on February 14th, for example, the Russell 2000 gained 2%. Its AD line was greater than 8 to 1 on February 14th. Yet I think at the prior day, February 13th was that big down day, and it had 8 to 1 downside volume, top side volume. That 8 to 1 downside volume one day, next day, eight times as much upside advances as”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“No, never at the bottom, but there were instances of the market continued six or seven percent higher, and that makes it peak. It's not going to pinpoint February 23rd as a peak. I'm trying to suggest it's possible that February 23rd is the final peak. We're short. We're not heavily short at this point. The SP is down 11 points today. It's still peaked on February 23rd. We'll get to that in a minute. But we're going to increase short exposure as we get more convinced that that was the final high. Now, why would February 23rd be the final high? We'll get a little later. That's what I say is that the background is consistent with the high. If put core ratios on a 10-day basis would be at one point three, there's no way the market would be peaking at that point. If the Federal Reserve lowered rates 14 times currently, there's no way you could be able to market peak, you see, but the S&P, the Federal Reserve has raised rates 11 times and the political ratios are low, and sentiment is very low.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Telling me that a market could peak. Then this other indicator we'll get to in a moment will tell me that the market is peaking. In other words, the market can go up another 6%, even though the indicators we're looking at are consistent with the peak. The question is besides being consistent with the peak, are there other factors that are telling the market is peaking? And that's really the kind of thing you want to talk about. We didn't get to that yet.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Convincing that the market better well, you have to really this only this only makes sense when all of them are consistent with the peak. In other words, there's no one indicator that's going to tell you that the market is going to peak. There are some other technical indicators we haven't got to. I'm talking about things you can put on the table. Some of the things we're going to talk about are things you really can't put on the table we will show in charts form.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“could prove me wrong but i i see no reason to to say that the market can't be making a final peak at the current time i see no reason for that at all and we'll get to some further information i tried to show the bullish indications that we have we have a number of bullish indications because in the back of my mind the reason the market can't peak is because of the technical indicator technical bicycle we received on the other hand some of the action that we've seen and the fact that the technicals the technicals at the high table the fact that it's almost totally consistent which I see in bull market peaks combined with other factors that we have suggest that we think there might be a bull market peak ahead of us”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“It is very true that earnings are coming in, but guess what? Nearly every bull market peak earnings were coming in. The market anticipates a change in earnings six months, eight months, 12 months later on. Earnings have nothing to do with the stock market. Stock markets always speak in anticipation. So you could say analysts are saying that earnings will continue. Analysts are, you can flip a coin and be just as right about the analyst as far as earnings go. So you have to say the fact that earnings are strong has nothing to do with market peaks. Markets always peak when earnings are strong. Actually, markets always peak when economists say they won't be a recession or if there's a recession or if there's a lending, there will be a soft landing. Markets don't peak when people are expecting a recession. As you know, in our interview a year ago, one of the arguments we made that the market can't be declining any further, that everyone and their aunt was convinced that the recession ahead of us. Now my aunt no longer expects a recession and now this is what you see at a market peak. So I really have not, Jack,”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Well, again, if you're going to try to project what the Fed does, it's easy to project what the market will do than to project what the Fed will do. Let's not try to project what the Fed will do. When they do it, we'll say, well, they cut, let's see what happens now. Remember, they cut in September of 2007 and the market peaked in October. So they cut just, well, Russell peaked in July, but the SB peaked in October, and the Nasdaq peaked in October. They cut in September. So let's wait for them to cut and see what happens then. And right now, what they have not yet cut, and there are still debates where they will cut or not. You can't say it's bullish, they will cut because when they will cut, it will be bullish, but they haven't cut. So I don't think that's a logical argument. I don't think so.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“That's not a negative. It's not a positive. So far, they haven't cut. So right now we have high religious rates and they haven't cut. That's a negative.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Even a fundamental, but even on a fundamental basis, way over value that nearly we've ever been, the interest rates are still high. The hoping goes low, but right now they're still high. Inflation, the way people measure inflation is still higher than it should be. And I don't know why I haven't heard any good reason why this cannot be the final high in the market, except people are so convinced that the kind of action we saw or the momentum we've seen will continue and something we will discuss a little bit later. Is that actually correct? Is this momentum, a bullish sign or possibly a bearish sign? We'll get to that in a moment.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Many other indicators to look at, but one reason is because Milton Brook's indicators signaled in November and we only met the minimum objective. We haven't met the maximum objective. Other than the things that we do, I don't know why anyone would suggest that we cannot be a final.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“Exactly, yes, yes. And truly, that is actually the case. People look at breath in a very strange way. We look at breath in a totally different way. Maybe we'll get to in a moment, but looking at new heights, which is a measure of breadth, 95 new highs. Now you can argue, you can argue that this might be caused by ETF trading, you know, going back to 1966, you didn't see ETF trading, and you did see it in 2011. Maybe that's why you got the 87. But the reality is we stick to the data, 95, a little bit too high. But I think one indicator is not enough to challenge the idea that we may be at a final bull market height. And on the other hand, maybe the market makes a minor new high in the next week or so, and you won't see 95.54. The market makes a high three days ago, maybe only 85 or 84. You don't really know. But I'm still calling. Currently, we're only 30% sure. We're not 100% sure yet. We'll get to that in a moment. There's no reason. Maybe you can give me a reason why we can't be at a final bull market peak. I mean, I want to go through.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“The median number of new highs at a final bull market peak of 48. The median number of new highs, the SP 500, is 48. I mean, less than 10% of the stocks made in New Hai along with the market. The maximum that we've seen is 87%. Now you've seen 95. So you can argue you can't have a bull market peak when it's only 95.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT
“If you're cruel, there was a mini financial crisis in Europe. The SP peaked on April 29th. There were 87 new highs in the S&P. It declined 19.39% into its October low. Now we're at 95. By the way, last night's close, there were only 54 new highs. And at the next close, last Friday, 95 is a level. This is on page one. You see the pink 95.”
2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT