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Milton Berg

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2024-03-04
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2024-03-04
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  1. “and now have eleven. The point is Fed action is consistent with what you see at market peaks. This is all fundamental type of work. But there's many other things we look at. For example, we look at the 60-day put core ratio. We look at the 10-day equity put core ratio. We look at the intraday volatility on the 44-day basis. We look at the percentage of stocks, the SP600 trading above their 10-week moving average. We look at the percentage of SP 500 stocks above the 10-week moving average. We look at the 12-day moving average of New York stock chains advancing volume of declining volume. A whole slew of indicators. And all it takes is three or four or five of these indicators not to be consistent with the market peak to tell you that the market can't peak here because it never did. Currently, there's only one indicator that took place that tells you that the market should not peak on February 23rd, and that was the number of new eyes. The greatest number of new highs in the SP500 at a market peak was 87. And that took place at the 2000...”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  2. “case Fed moves yeah it's on page two how fed moves the median is two fed moves at a market peak the maxim the most we ever saw before the market peaked was at the 2007 peak when the fed raised rates 17 times if you recall they're raising incremental rates 1.4% at a time quite a number of years but it took 17 moves before the market peaked they actually lowered rates before the s p actually made its final high by the way it's another story we've actually seen 11 moves of Fed tightening 11 times which is totally consistent with what you see at a bull market peak. Now people are arguing well the Fed's going to loosen the going to loosen and they're going to loosen. The data we look at is not what people think. The data we look at is what has actually happened actually happened is interest rates are up on a six-month basis and a 30-year 12 month basis. And the Fed has raised rates 11 times without lowering rates. Historically meeting this two, the most you ever needed.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  3. “Right, right, that's true, but we're not talking, we're talking about rate of change in yield, and we're going back to 1966. So we're looking at all bull market peaks. The point is if yields, for example, would be down 40% over the last year, that would be totally inconsistent with what you see at bull market peaks. Or if the six-month yield would be down 12% yield, you never had a bull market peak took place when yields were down 12% over the previous six months. The point being is this is one of the things we're looking at. Everything we look at that took place previous bull market peaks is consistent. Let's look at some other things, for example. Let's look at some Fed policy. Typically, bull markets peak after two changes, two negative changes in Fed policy, negative meaning the median is the Fed raises rates twice and then the market peaks. That's historically that has been.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  4. “No, no, the yield has gone up. Value bond has gone down. We're looking at the change in yields. If the yield goes up from 4% to 4.5%, that's like an 11% gain in yield. We're looking at an upward slope in yields. The 30-year bond is now yielding more than it yielded a year ago, which means it's priced lower than it was a year ago. And at bull market peaks, that's something you normally see. And the 10.91% gain in yield is actually roughly at the median. You see a bull market peaks. The median is 10.61%.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  5. “with what yields do at bull market peaks. That's on a six-month basis. On a one-year basis, the long bond yield has gained 10.91%. In other words, bonds have gone down. Yields have moved up 10.91%, which again roughly is at the median you see at a bull market peak. The median is 10.61%.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  6. “Why you could be short, why you could suggest that even on an inflation, even on a non-inflation basis, We look at every high in the SP 500 and in the other indices since February 9th, 1966. And we look at the technical indicators and some fundamental indicators that occurred at those highs. And in fact, on February 23rd, 2024, only one of these series of indicators was not at a level which was consistent with final bull market peaks. For example, let's look at some fundamentals. Let's look at interest rates. The 30-year T bond on a six-month basis has gained yield has gained 2.34% over the last six months. That's on page four of our table. And historically, bull market peaks have occurred anywhere between a 1.82% gain in the six-month yield and an 11.98% decline in yield. So the fact that the yields are up 2.34% is consistent.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  7. “Will remain the peak of the bull market, the bull market that began in 2009 and March 6th, 2009 on an inflation basis made its peak on January 3rd, 2022 in the S&P, maybe roughly like November 8th and November 12, 2021 in the NASDAQ. And that might be the ultimate bear market bull market peak, which would not exceed for quite a number of years. Very important point to point out. We have to look at the stock on inflation as a basis. This is just putting sort of a pouring cold water on the idea that we're at new highs. We're not really at new highs. First of all, as we know, the Russell 2000 is not at a new high. And we know that the unweighted SPF heard is not at a new high. And on inflation adjusted basis, not one index in the United States is at a new all-time high. Let's look at why it's possible that the final bull market peak is in force.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  8. “And they made another all-time high in 1986, 1985, but inflation adjusted basis, the SAP peaked in 1966. And the bear market lasted until 1985 until 1982. In other words, the S&P bear market began peaked in 1966 under inflation adjusted basis, but continued lower and lower, lower on inflation adjusted basis until 1982, although there's still higher prices in 1974 and 1980 and so on. So I'm thinking that currently what you saw at the peak in 2002, at January 3002, may be on an inflation justice basis, maybe a peak that lasts quite a while. Let's not fool ourselves in thinking just because CS&P and the NDX are at new closing highs above that level, that is true on a non-inflation-adjusted basis, but an inflation adjusted basis is quite possible that they”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  9. “Now people weren't so aware of inflation for the last decade or the last 15 years or so, but inflation in the United States, there's always some inflation and sometimes it's strong inflation, sometimes there's weak inflation, but basically we've generally been in an inflationary period. On inflation adjusted basis, the SP 500 did not make a new high on February 23rd, 2024. The SP made its high on January 4th, 2022-2022. The SP on an inflation adjusted basis is not at a new high. And in fact, the S&P has a historical situation of generating many long bull markets on an inflationary basis, inflation-justed basis, and many long beer markets on an inflation-just basis. For example, the SP made an all-time high in 1966 on a non-inflationary adjustment basis, made another all-time high in 1977 in 1974.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  10. “In 24 years. On the other hand, it's also up 666% since it's low of March 6, 2009. An interesting thing is people assume the SAP makes 10% per annum. If you buy stocks, buy the index, you earn 10% per annum. It's not really true. As long as you bought stocks at average prices, if you buy stocks after a beer market at the low, you'll make far more than 10% per annum. If you buy stocks at the high, you're like at the high of 2000, you'll make far less than 10% per annum. So the reality is someone who buys stocks at average prices on average will return 10% per annum. But if somebody buys stocks above average prices, he will not make 10% per annum of the SP 500. The point being, it seems we're in a bull market. Why? Because we just made a new high. April 23rd, 2024. The SP is at $5,111.0600 on interest rate basis. So no all-time high. It seems we're in a bull market. You'd think so. However, you really have to put on a different set of glasses and look in the market differently. Because there's something called inflation.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  11. “We want to let the bullish case because say you get a 10% to 12% correction and then the market blows off to 6,000 the S&P, that would have been projected by the signals we saw in December and in January because December and November and so on. However, we did see indications right now in January and February to suggest a top and maybe a final top. Maybe not a final top, maybe a corrective top. In any event, it's enough for me to be short. We'll get to it in a moment. Let's talk about the SP500. The SP500 has gained 235% in 24 years since its peak on September 1st, 2000. September 1st, 2000, the SP made a peak just to half a percent below its peak in March of 2000. So for technical purposes, I look at the peak of the SP 400 in 2000, not in March when the NASDAQ made its final peak, but in September when the S&P on the New York Stock Exchange actually made its final closing highs. So that means up.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  12. “Wimares, right? We're going to have to get to why I'm bearish, but you have to point out that this market is beginning tremendous number of bison. Let's get to the bearish case if you'd like to get to the bearish case immediately. I'd rather really talk about bullish case. Number one is...”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  13. “The flesh crashed declined. The market actually peaked. Nine days later on April 23rd, only 1.738% higher, and it declined 14 put 1.5% from the time from that date that you had both the NASDAQ and the S&P 400 up nine weeks in a row. So I'm just pointing out there's a lot of momentum to this market. And even the fact that both these indices are up nine weeks in a row, although historically in most instances it's the bull market, the market continues higher. There was one instance where it generated a top nine days later and the market declined 14%. But in our case, you really can't compare it to the case where top nine days later because we're currently 37 days later, we've gained 6.6%. We haven't topped the medium layer. Momentum is continuing.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  14. “The S&P 500 was up for nine weeks in a row. At the same time, the Nazare was up nine weeks in a row. This does not happen very, very often. Not only that, we were up nine weeks in a row. We had gained 15.85% over those nine weeks. The SP 500 gained 15.85%. Never in history when both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both gained 9%, did the SP gain as much as 15.85%. In 2012, it was 11.7%. 2010 was 12%. 2010 was 13%. 1985 was 12% and 11%. But the point being is that in most of these instances, it took place during a bull market. The only one time when the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both generated gains for nine weeks in a row, the only one time when the market went down was on April 12, 2010, which is right before.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  15. “But number two is I could be short or we may just get a correction within a bull market. Maybe we'll go down 10, 12, 15 percent within a bull market and continue higher. In that case, it makes sense to be short. But the reasons we're short are based on technical indicators we have to get to in a moment. I just wanted to point out, though, for your viewers that we're not necessarily saying there is a bear market ahead. We just think it's quite possible this bear market ahead. We'll get to that in a moment. But I just wouldn't like to point out that there was quite a number of buy signals that were generated both in October, November, December. We have met the minimum objectives of”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  16. “The SP6 solution, the SV small cap, generated a five day rate of change greater than 7%. There are three separate independent momentum indicators. When you combine them together, we got 10 historical instances. So you look at the median of those head instances, we project to 5,461, which would be the median of those instances. The minimum of those instances project to 4,861. Looking at all 30 signals we got, we've met the minimum projection of 5002.23. We haven't met the median projection of 5,580. So now I have to tell myself, October of 2023, was that the beginning of a new bull move? And I can expect hit to median? Or that was just an extending signal within a bull market? So if you look at the Russell, tell yourself, wealth is a new bull market because the Russell just made a beer market low. It wasn't within an extended bull move in the Russell, the Russell made a new low. On the other hand, the SP500.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  17. “We're above that as well. So although we got new bicycles in October, we're above those bicycles. These are the median projections. But in November, we got more than 30 separate bicycles. In November of 2023, and the median projection for the November signals can hold on to your seep is 5,580.75. Reached that at all, but we did reach the minimum projection. In other words, every signal, for example, we have a signal, I'll give you one example, we have a signal which was generated on November 3rd, which S&P 500, the number of issues trading above the 10-day average was 90%. 90% of the 500 stocks are trading above the 10-day average. And at the same time, the SAP mid-caps generated the greatest five-day rated change in more than a quarter of a year.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  18. “Now, these new biceples give us greater projections. So the question is how much weight do we put in bice signals that came that took place during a bull market rather than at the end of a bear market? What I mean to say is that in October of 2023, it was a very strange market because the Russell 2000 made its bear market low on October 27, 2023. The S&P made its bear market low a year earlier, October 2022. Russell 2000 and the banking index, for example, made their beer market loans on a closing basis in October of 2023. But we got buy signals off those lows as well. For example, the October bison was project to $4,995.84.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  19. “90 to 1. And that projected a 5,035.98 in the SP 500, which you also retained that just now. Another signal we got on January 25th, for example, of 2023 was the S&P 600 gained in price for four weeks in a row, which is a bullish momentum figure. And the SP500 upside downside volume was greater than 19 to 1 in two out of the previous 10 days. And that when you combine those two momentum indicators, we got a projection of 5,067.83, which I believe we hit as well, 5,060, we got to 5,111. These indicators a year ago met their objectives. So when you meet injects out saying to myself, it can no longer be bullish based on those signals. Those signals met their objectives. That's going back last year to January. However, at the lows in October, we got a number of new buy signals.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  20. “in October of 2022 and in January 2023 we had roughly 15 individual buy signals and they projected to a median gain of to 4956.23 in the S&P so you just met that objective this year in this January we got above 4956.23 so once we have bicycles that worked and they met their objectives we have to start worrying will this uh will it go above the objective when i say it's the objective this is the median projection of all those 15 signals or so it could go above the median it could go to the maximum projection but we never talk about maximum you don't expect maximum to expect medians so we got the median an example of what we saw a year ago for example on january 12th of 2023 which was just less than two weeks past the low in the in the nasdaq the new york stock exchange 10 day advance of 10 day declines gave what's called a breath thrust it's a very famous technical tool i was the only one who discovered it of 1.5”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT

  21. “Keep Jackson, nice being here. I enjoy your interviews. You do a great job, and I really, I learned from the interview as well because you ask good questions, makes me think a little bit. But no, I was not, I actually was short last July when we spoke. When we spoke, I still 100 long, but I actually did go short. The SB did decline some 10.38% from its July peak, July 31st peak to its October 27th low. And we were short during that period. We got aggressively long day after the low after October 27th low. We'll discuss that in this interview, hopefully. And my current view, though, is it sure is that we got a number of buy signals a year ago when we were first on. We were very bullish in the market. The projections we gave at that time have all been met. For example, we had a number of bicycles in January of 2023. The Nasdaq, as you know, bottomed in December of 2022 and the S&P 500 bottom.”

    2024-03-04 · Forward Guidance · Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929 · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT