YouSaid · the spoken record

Ray Kurzweil

lines on the record: 110
first: 2022-09-17
most recent: 2022-09-17
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“Well, I hope so I mean, we've seen social networks can spread conspiracy theories, which have been quite negative, being, for example, being against any kind of stuff that would help your health.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly, and somebody might represent democracy and go backwards. We basically had no democracies before the creation of the United States, which was a little over two centuries ago, which in the scale of human history isn't that long.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I have 50 more graphs in the book about all kinds of things. Even spread of democracy, which might Up some sort of controversial issues, it still has gone way up.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Gun way up, average years of education have gone way up, life expectancy has also increasing. Life expectancy was 48 in 1900.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And this is the reality. And it's true of almost everything you look at. You don't want to go back 100 years or 50 years. Things were quite miserable then. But we tend not to remember that.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“70% thought it had gotten worse, and that's the general impression. 88% thought it gotten worse or remained the same. Only one percent thought it decreased by 50%, and that is the answer. It actually decreased by 50%.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. Somebody becomes cheap and will be affordable I probably would not be the first person to put Something in my brain to connect to computers. Because I think it will have limitations. But once it's really perfected, At that point, it'll be pretty inexpensive. I think it'll be pretty affordable.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And they didn't work very well. They did almost nothing. So you can only afford these things if you're wealthy at a point where they really don't work very well.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Faster. And I say that's just like cell phones. There's like four billion cell phones in the world today. In fact, cell phones first came out, you had to be fairly wealthy. They weren't very inexpensive. So you had to have some wealth in order to afford them.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That is the question. Will this time be different? And it really has to do with how quickly we can merge with this type of intelligence. Whether lambda GPT3 is out there, maybe it's overcome some of its key problems, and we really have an enhanced human intelligence that might be a negative scenario. But I mean, that's why we create technologies to enhance ourselves. And I believe we will be enhanced. We're not just going to sit here with. 300 million Modules in our neocortex, we're going to be able to go beyond that. Because that's useful, but we can multiply that by 10, 100, a million. And you might think, well, what's the point of doing that? It's like asking somebody that's never heard music, well, what's the value of music? I mean, you can't appreciate it until you've created it.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“2021 constant dollars and has gone way up. That's not what you were to predict. Given that we would predict that all these jobs would go away. But the reason it's gone up is because we've basically enhanced our own capabilities by using these machines as opposed to them just competing with us. That's a key way in which we're going to be able to become far smarter than we are now by increasing the number of different parameters we can consider in making a decision.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“A lot of people just think computers come along and they compete with them. We can't really compete and that's the end of it, as opposed to them increasing our abilities. And if you look at most technology, it increases our abilities. I mean, look at the history of work. Look at what people did a hundred years ago. Does any of that exist anymore? I mean if you were to predict that all of these jobs would go away and would be done by machines people would say well there's going to be no one's going to have jobs and it's going to be massive unemployment I show in this book that's coming out the amount of people that are working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone way up.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we ride along, but a lot of people don't see that. They say, Well, you've got humans and you got machines, and there's no way we can ultimately compete with humans And you can already see that Lee Sidal, who's like the best go player in the world, says he's not going to play go anymore. Because plain go for human, that was like the ultimate in intelligence because no one else could do that. But now a machine can actually go way beyond him. And so he says, well, there's no point playing it anymore.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And I could think, I could look at a tree and go, oh, I could actually trip that branch down and eliminate the leaves and carve a tip on it. And it would create technology. And you can't do that if you don't have a thumb. Um... Thumbs on creative technology and technology also had a memory and now those memories are competing with the scale and scope of human beings. And ultimately will go beyond it. And then we're going to emerge. Human technology with human intelligence and understand how human intelligence works, which I think we already do, and we're putting that into our human technology”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. It created increasingly complex organisms. Another key thing is actually not just brains, but our thumb. Because there's a lot of animals with brains even bigger than humans. Elephants have a bigger brain, whales have a bigger brain, but they've not created technology. They don't have a thumb. So that's one of the really key elements in the evolution of humans.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We had lots of electrons and various things traveling around. And that took actually many billions of years kind of jumping ahead here to kind of some of the last stages where we have things like love and creativity. It's really quite remarkable that that happens. Finally, physics and chemistry created biology and DNA. And now you had actually one type of molecule that described the cutting edge of this process. And we go from physics and chemistry to biology. And finally, biology created brains, and I mean, not everything that's created by biology has a brain. But eventually brains came along.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not just that you're touching someone or not, there's a whole way of doing it and it's very subtle. But ultimately we can emulate all of that.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, it really gives you appreciation for these virtual ways of communicating. And if anybody can do it, then it's really not such a freak story. So I think more and more people will do that”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Action with somebody who's marrying somebody that they never met, and I think they just met her briefly before the wedding, but she actually fell in love with this other person, never having met them And I think the love is real.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a little bit like Second Life, although the Second Life actually didn't work very well because it couldn't actually handle too many people. And I don't think the metaverse has come to being. I think there will be something like that. It won't necessarily be from that one company. I mean, there's going to be competitors. But yes, we're going to live increasingly online, particularly if our brains are online. I mean, how could we not be online?”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. That's why we called it the singularity. The singularity in physics, something gets sucked into its singularity, and you can't tell what's going on in there because no information can get out of it. There's various problems with that. But that's the idea. It's too much beyond what we can imagine.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Yeah. Actually, since it goes faster than the amount of cost, this has actually become a greater investment to create these. But at any rate, by the time you get to 2045, we'll be able to multiply our intelligence many millions fold. And it's just very hard to imagine what that would be like.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“He went through World War II, it went through global recessions, it's just continuing. And if you continue that out, along with software gains, which is a whole other issue, And they really multiply whatever you get from software gains, you multiply by the computer gains, you get faster and faster speed. This is actually the fastest computer models that have been created, and that actually expands roughly twice a year, like every six months it expands by two.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I don't like the term Moore's Law because it has nothing to do with Moore or with Intel. But yes The exponential growth of computing is continuing And has never stopped.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“then went to vacuum tubes then went to individual transistors and then to integrated circuits And integrated circuits actually starts like in the middle of this graph. And it has nothing to do with Intel. Intel actually was a key part of this. But a few years ago, they stopped making the fastest chips. But if you take the fastest chip of any technology in that year, you get this kind of graph. And it's definitely continuing for 80 years.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The third one was the British computer which the Allies did take very seriously and it cracked the German code and enabled the British to win the Battle of Britain, which otherwise absolutely would not have happened if they hadn't cracked the code using that computer. That's an exponential graph, so a straight line on that graph is exponential growth. And you see 80 years of exponential growth. And I would say about every five years, and this happened shortly before the pandemic, people saying, well, they call it Moore's Law, which is not the correct because that's not all Intel. In fact, it started decades before Intel was even created. It wasn't with transistors formed into a grid.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that starts with the very first computer actually created by German during World War II. You might have thought that that might be significance, but actually the Germans didn't think computers were significant and they completely rejected it. The second one was also the Zeussa 2.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Once we can amplify our brain with computers directly, which will happen in the 2030s, does kind of keep growing? That's another whole theme, which is the exponential growth of computing power. Yeah, so looking at private...”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Just change the rules to chess. And within a couple of days, it now played a master level of chess greater than any human being. And the same thing then worked for Alpha Phone. Which no human had done. I mean, human beings could do the best humans could maybe do 15, 20% of figuring out what the shape would be. And after a few takes, it ultimately did just about 100%.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Pretty remarkable that they can actually predict what the 3D shape of these things are, but they did it with the same type of neural net that one, for example, the Go test.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's where we're headed. Because, I mean, right now we have a very inefficient way of creating these new medications. But we've already shown it. And the Moderna vaccine is actually the best of the vaccines we've had. And it literally took two days to create. And we'll get to the point where we can test it out also quickly.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's a little bit more complicated because the body has a lot of different elements and we have to simulate all of that. But that's coming as well. So ultimately we could create it in a few days and then test it in a few days and it would be done. And we can do that with every type of medical insufficiency that we have.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And one of the reasons that people didn't like vaccines. Because it was done too quickly. It was done too fast. And they actually included the time it took to test it out, which is 10 months, so they figured, okay, it took 10 months to create this. Actually, it took us two days. And we also will be able to ultimately do the test in a few days as well.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. We can get, for example, to issues like simulated biology where we can simulate many different things at once. We already had one example of simulated biology, which is the Moderna vaccine. And that's going to be now the way in which we create medications. They were able to simulate what each example of an mRNA would do to a human being, and they were able to simulate that quite reliably. And we actually simulated billions of different mRNA sequences. And they found the ones that were the best and they created the vaccine. And they did and talked about doing it quickly. They did that in two days. Now, how long would a human being take to simulate billions of different myna sequences? I don't know that we could do it at all, but it would take many years. They did it in two days.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. And the AI brain is really an emulation of human beings. I mean, that's why we're creating them. Because human beings act the same way, and this is basically to amplify them. I mean, this amplifies. A little bit clumsy to interact with, but it definitely is way beyond what we had 15 years ago.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Human beings actually have a little bit more than that, but they're getting to the point where they can emulate humans. If we were able to connect this to our neocortex, we would basically add More of these abilities to make distinctions, and it could ultimately be much smaller and also be attached to information that we feel is reliable. So that's where we're headed”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And we had large language models that were like 10 billion bytes. It didn't work very well. They finally got to 100 billion bytes, and now they work fairly well. And now we're going to a trillion bytes. If you say Lambda has 100 billion bytes, what does that mean? What if you had something that had one byte, one parameter? Maybe you want to tell whether or not something's an elephant or not. And so you put in something that would detect its trunk. If it has a trunk, it's an elephant. If it doesn't have a trunk, it's not an elephant. That would work fairly well. There's a few problems with it, and it really wouldn't be able to tell what a trunk is. But anyway,”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Exactly. We don't know what that would be, although we do know the computers can share information like language instantly. They can share many, many books in a second so we could do that as well. If you look at what our brain does, it actually can manipulate different parameters. So we talk about these large language models. I mean, I had written that It requires a certain amount of information in order to be effective. and that we would not see AI really being effective until it got to that level.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. But I think. I mean, they're going to get permission for this because there are a lot of people who absolutely need it because they can't communicate. I know a couple of people like that who have ideas and they cannot move their muscles and so on. They can't communicate. So, for them, this would be very valuable. But we could all use it Basically, Turn us into something that would be like we have a phone, but it would be in our mind, it would be kind of instantaneous.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I believe that will happen in the 2030s. We will actually, so just the way this is greatly amplified by being connected to the cloud, we can connect our own brain to the cloud and just do what we can do by using this machine.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. That's something that could actually just about be done today where you would listen to your conversation, understand what you're saying, understand what you're not missing and give you that information. But another step is to actually go inside your brain. Ah and there are some Prototypes where you can connect your brain They actually don't have the amount of bandwidth that we need. They can work, but they work fairly slowly. So if it actually would connect to your neocortex. And the neocortex, which I describe and how to create a mind, The neocortex It has different levels, and as you go up the levels, it's kind of like a pyramid. The top level is fairly small. And that's the level where you want to connect these brain extenders.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I've actually never lost it, but you have to find it, and then you have to turn it on. So there's a certain amount of steps. It would actually be quite useful if someone would just listen to your conversation and say. Oh, that's so and so actress and tell you what you're talking about.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So we're going to do that directly from our brains. I mean, these are pretty good. These already have amplified our intelligence. I'm already much smarter than I would otherwise be if I didn't have this. I remember when I first spoke, The Age of Intelligent Machines, There was no way to get information from computers. I actually would go to a library, find a book, find the page that had an information I wanted, and I'd go to the copier and my most significant. Information tool was a roll of quarters where I could feed the copier. So we're already gratefully advanced that we have these things. There's a few problems with it. First of all, I constantly put it down and I don't remember where I put it.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Another step then is in the 2030s when we can actually Connect our neocortex, which is where we do our thinking, to computers. And, I mean, just as this actually gains a lot to being connected to computers that will amplify its abilities. I mean, if this did not have any connection, it would be pretty stupid. It could not answer any of your questions.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, that's exactly right because most people have not taken that position. I don't take that position. Different things Like this, and they don't appear to me to be conscious. As we eliminate various problems of these large language models, more and more people will accept that they're conscious. So when we get to 2029, I think a large fraction of people will believe that they're conscious. So it's not going to happen all at once. I believe that it would actually happen gradually, and it's already started to happen.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, if you look at the way people react, say 3 CPO or other machines that are conscious in movies, they don't actually present how it's conscious, but we see that they are a machine, and people will believe that they are conscious. And they'll actually worry about it if they get into trouble and so on.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I'm talking about 2029. It's not that many years from now. And so what are our obligations to it? It has a different, I mean, a computer that's conscious has a little bit different connotations than a human. We have a continuous consciousness. In an entity that does not last forever Now, actually, a significant portion of humans still exist and are therefore still conscious. But anybody who is over a certain age doesn't exist anymore, that wouldn't be true of a computer program. You could completely turn it off, and a copy of it could be stored and you could recreate it. And so it has a different type of validity. You can actually take it back in time. You could eliminate its memory and have it go over again. I mean, it has a different kind of connotation than humans do.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“To me, it's very important, but I would say it's not a scientific issue. It's a philosophical issue. And people have different views, and some people believe that anything that makes a decision is conscious. So your light switch is conscious. Its level of consciousness is low, not very interesting, but that's a consciousness. And anything, so a computer that makes a more interesting decision, still not at human levels, but it's also conscious and at a higher level than your light switch. So that's one view. There's many different views of what consciousness is.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's also extremely important issue. I mean, imagine if you had something nobody's conscious, the world may as well not exist. Some people like to say Marvin Minsky Said, well, consciousness is not logical, it's not scientific, and therefore we should dismiss it and any talk about consciousness is just not to be believed. But when he actually engaged with somebody who was conscious, he actually acted as if they were conscious. He didn't ignore that.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I mean, consciousness is not something that's scientific. I mean, I believe you're conscious. But it's really just a belief, and we believe that about other humans that at least appear to be conscious. When you go outside of shared human assumption, like our animals conscious. Some people believe they're not conscious, some people believe they are conscious. And would a machine that acts just like a human be conscious? I mean, I believe it would be. But that's really a philosophical belief. You can't prove it. I can't take an entity and prove that it's conscious. There's nothing that you can do that would indicate that.”
2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source