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Ray Kurzweil

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110
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2022-09-17
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2022-09-17
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  1. “No, I think it will be a large language model, but they have to go beyond what they're doing now. I think we're getting there. And another key issue is if somebody actually passes deterring tests validly, I would believe they're conscious. Not everybody would say that. So, okay, it can pass a Turing test, but we don't really believe that it's conscious. That's a whole other issue. But if it really passes a turning test, I would believe that it's conscious. But I don't believe that of large language models today.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “That's the key thing. I mean, how advanced the human do you want it to be? But we do expect a human to be able to do multi-chain reasoning, to be able to take a few facts and put them together. Not perfectly. And we see that in a lot of polls that people don't do that perfectly at all. So it's not very well defined, but it's something where it really would convince you that it's a human.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Can ask how many legs did 10 elephants have, and they'll tell you, well, okay, each elephant has four legs and it's 10 elephants, so it's 40 legs. And you go, okay, that's pretty good. How many legs do 11 elephants have? And they don't seem to understand the question.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “That's actually a key problem with large language models. They don't do these kinds of Tests that would involve assessing chains of reasoning. You can lose track of that. If you talk to them, they actually can talk to you pretty well and you can be convinced by it. But it's somebody that would really convince you that it's a human. Whatever that takes, maybe it would take days or weeks, but it would really convince you that it's human. Large language models. Can appear that way. You can read conversations and they appear pretty good. There are some problems with it. It doesn't do math very well”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “Basically, it's just to assess it over several hours. And also have a human judge that's fairly sophisticated on what computers can do and can't do. If you take somebody who's not that sophisticated or even an average engineer, they may not really assess various aspects of it.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Some people are convinced by the Turing test. Now, if somebody passes the Turing test, what are the implications of that? Does that mean that they're sentient, that they're conscious or not? It's not necessarily clear what the implications are. Anyway, I believe... 2029, that's six, seven years from now, we'll have something to pass the Turing test and a valid Turing test, meaning it goes for hours, not just a few minutes.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “Right. Now, what he said was very little about it. I mean, the 1950 paper where he articulated the Turing test, there's like a few lines that... Talk about the Turing test. And it really wasn't. Very clear how to administer it. And he said if they did it in like 15 minutes, that would be sufficient, which I don't really think is the case. Large language models now, some people are convinced by it already. I mean, you can talk to it and have a conversation with you. You can actually talk to it for hours. So it requires a little more depth. There's some problems with large language models, which we can talk about”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “And I was still saying 2029. Few weeks ago, they again did another poll, and it was twenty thirty. So AX was now basically agree with me. I haven't changed at all. I've stayed with 2029. And AXPs now agree with me, but they didn't agree at first.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “2005 So held in a national conference, you might have been aware of it, of AI experts in 1999 to assess this view. So people gave different predictions and they took a poll. It was really the first time that AI experts worldwide were polled on this prediction. And the average poll was 100 years. 20% believed it would never happen. And that was the view in 1999. 80% believed it would happen, but not within their lifetimes. There's been so many advances in AI that the pole of AI experts has come down over the years. So a year ago, something called meticulous, which you may be aware of, assessed different types of experts on the future. They again assessed what AI experts then felt. And they were saying 2042.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “Singularity is what computers really change our view of what's important and change who we are. We're getting close to some salient things that will change who we are. Thing is 2029. And computers will pass the Turing test. And there's also some controversy whether the Turing test is valid. I believe it is. Most people do believe that, but there's some controversy about that. Stanford got very alarmed at my prediction about 2029. I made this in 1999.”

    2022-09-17 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #321 – Ray Kurzweil: Singularity, Superintelligence, and Immortality · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source