YouSaid · the spoken record

Robin Hanson

lines on the record: 314
first: 2022-06-09
most recent: 2022-06-09
sittings or episodes: 1
sources: podcast

Every line below is reproduced as it was said and linked to the record it came from. Nothing here is summarised or generated. Directory · Search · Corrections

“One thing is that we know at the moment that humans discount the future rapidly. So we discount the future in terms of caring about consequences, roughly a factor of two progeneration. And there's a solid evolutionary analysis why sexual creatures would do that. Because basically your descendants only share half of your genes and your descendants are a generation away.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I've tried to do analysis of where our distant descendants might go in terms of what are robust features we could predict about our descendants. So again, This analysis of sort of the next generation after ours. If you think of human history as having three eras so far, right? There was the Forager era, the farmer era, and the industry era, then my attempt in age of M is to analyze the next era after that. And it's very different. But of course, there could be more and more errors after that. So analyzing a particular scenario and thinking it through is one way to try to see how different the future could be, but that doesn't give you some sort of like sense of what's typical. But I have tried to analyze what's typical. And so I have two predictions I think I can make pretty solidly.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it's very different. And it's different in ways that are shocking sometimes to many people and ways some people don't like. I think it's an okay world, but I have to admit it's quite different. And that's just one technology. If we add, you know, dozens more technologies, changes into the future, we should just expect it's possible to become very different than who we are. I mean, in the space of all possible minds, our minds are a particular architecture, a particular structure, a particular set of habits, and they are only, you know, one piece in a vast base of possibilities, the space of possible minds is really huge.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So I have this book called The Age of M, Work, Love and Life, and Robots Rule the Earth. And it's about what happens if brain emulations become possible. So a brain emulation is where you take a actual human brain and you scan it and find spatial and chemical detail to create a computer simulation of that brain. And then those computer simulations of brains are basically citizens in a new world. They work and they vote and they fall in love and they get mad and they lie to each other. And this is a whole new world. And my book is about analyzing how that world is different than our world. Basically, using competition as my key lever of analysis. That is, if that world remains competitive, then I can figure out how they change in that world, what they do differently than we do.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And they've changed a lot many times, and they've changed a lot across time. So I think the most obvious prediction about the future is even if you only have the mechanisms that change we've seen in the past, you should still expect a lot of change in the future. But we have a lot bigger mechanisms for change in the future than we had in the past.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, well, I was trying to go there. I think the first thing you should say if you look at history, just human history over the last 10,000 years, if you really understood what people were like a long time ago, you'd realize they were really quite different ancient cultures created people who were really quite different. Most historical fictionalized to you about that. It often offers you modern characters in an ancient world. But if you actually study history, you will see just how different they were and how differently they thought.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Many forms. And the case I was going to make is that I think one of the things that most scares people about competition is not just that it creates Holocaust and death on massive scales, is that it's likely to change who we are and what we value.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Central control over the solar system is feasible. But once you let it escape the solar system, it's no longer feasible. But if you have a solar system that doesn't have a central control, maybe broken into a thousand different political units in the solar system, then any one part of that that allows interstellar colonization and it happens. That is, interstellar colonization happens when only one party chooses to do it and is able to do it. And that's what it is there for. So we can just say in a world of competition If interstellar colonization is possible, it will happen and then competition will continue and that will sort of ensure the continuation of competition into the indefinite future.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“If, say, over the next thousand years, we fill up the solar system, right? We go out from Earth and we colonize Mars and we change a lot of things within a solar system still everything is within reach. That is, if there's a rebellious colony around Neptune, you can throw rocks at it and smash it and teach them discipline.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And it'll happen sometime in the next 10 million years, maybe the next thousand. But the key thing to notice from our point of view is that even though you might like our global governance, you might like the fact that we've come together. We no longer have massive wars and we no longer have destructive competition. And that we could continue that, the cost of continuing that would be to prevent interstellar colonization. That is, once you allow interstellar colonization, then you've lost control of those colonies. And whatever they change into, they could come back here and compete with you back here as a result of having lost control. And I think if people value that global governance and global community and regulation and all the things it can do enough, they would then want to prevent interstellar colonization.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Evaluation and say, first of all, I have an analysis that tells us this is a key choice that we will face and that it's a key choice other aliens have faced out there. And it could be that only one in ten in a hundred civilizations chooses to expand and the rest of them stay quiet and that's how it goes out there. And we face that choice too.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Remember, we talked about separating our cold analysis of what's likely or possible from what we prefer. And so this isn't exactly time for that. We might say, I would recommend we don't go this route of a world strong world governance. And because I would say it preclude this possibility of becoming Rabbi aliens, of filling the next nearest million galaxies for the next billion years with vast amounts of activity and interest and value of life out there. That's the thing we would lose by deciding that we wouldn't expand, that we would stay here and keep our comfortable shared governance.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Their view is the one that determines what happens. Their view may still end up there, even if you or I might criticize it from that point of view.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sharing that opinion in there and they feel that they are morally justified in their stance there. And that's the kind of event that actually brings world elite communities together where they come together and they push a particular policy and position that they share and that they achieve successes. And the same sort of passion animates global elites with respect to, say, global warming or global poverty and other sorts of things. They are, in fact, making progress on those sorts of things through shared global community of elites. And in some sense, they are slowly walking toward global governance, slowly strengthening various world institutions of governance, but cautiously, carefully watching out for the possibility of a single power that might corrupt it”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But without a global center. This is sort of what human mobs or communities have done for a long time. That is, humans can coordinate together on shared behavior without a center by having gossip and reputation within a community of elites. And this is what we have been doing and are likely to do a lot more of. So for example, you know, one of the things that's happening, say, with the war in Ukraine, is that this world community of elites has decided that they disapprove of the Russian invasion and they are coordinating to pull resources together from all around the world in order to oppose it. And they are proud of that.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Okay, so for the last half century and into the continuing future, we actually have had a strong elite global community that shares a lot of values and beliefs and has created a lot of convergence in global policy. So if you look at electromagnetic spectrum or medical experiments or pandemic policy or nuclear power energy or regulating airplanes or just in a wide range of area, in fact, the world has very similar regulations and rules everywhere, and it's not a coincidence because they are part of a world community where people get together at places like Davos, etc., where world elites want to be respected by other world elites and they have a convergence of opinion, and that produces something like global governance.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“I think people will be less terrified than you are right now. And let me try to paint the picture from their point of view. This isn't my point of view, but I think it's going to be a widely shared point of view”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Most likely. So even a nuclear war isn't enough to destroy us. Or to stop our potential from expanding, but we could institute a regime of global governance that limited competition, including military and business competition of sorts, and that could prevent our expansion.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Even a vast nuclear war, if it happened here right now on Earth. It would not kill all humans. Certainly wouldn't kill all life. And so human civilization would return within 100,000 years.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It has been so far, and it would be within an expanding grabby alien civilization, but we today have the chance, many people think and hope, of greatly controlling and limiting competition within our civilization for a while. And that's an interesting choice. Weather to allow competition to sort of regain its full force or whether to suppress and manage it.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The way I would take the logic is to say competition just happens if you can't coordinate to stop it. And you probably can't coordinate to stop it in an expanding interstellar wave.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And they may like that so much that they prevent interstellar colonization, which would become the end of that era. That is, interstellar colonization would just return severe competition to human or our descendant affairs. And many civilizations may prefer that and ours may prefer that. But if they choose to allow interstellar colonization, they will have chosen to allow competition to return with great force. That is, there's really not much of a way to centrally govern a rapidly expanding sphere of civilization. And so I think the one of the most solid things we can predict about Grabi aliens is they have accepted competition and they have internal competition and therefore they have the potential for competition when they meet each other at the borders. But whether that's military competition is more of an open question.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Would say it's defined by competition, and then the question is how much competition implies war. So up until recently, competition defined life on Earth. Competition between species and organisms, and among humans, competitions among individuals and communities, and that competition often took the form of war in the last 10,000 years. Many people now are hoping or even expecting to sort of suppress and end competition in human affairs. They regulate business competition. They prevent military competition. And that's a future I think a lot of. Continue and strengthen. People will like to have something close to world government or world governance, or at least a world community, and they will like to suppress war and many forms of business and personal competition over the coming centuries.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“$100 billion, the expansion of the universe will happen so much that all you'll have left is some galaxy clusters that are sort of disconnected from each other. But before then, for the next hundred million years, 100 billion years, they will interact. There will be this community of all the Grabi alien civilizations, and each one of them will hear about and even meet thousands of others. And we might hope to join them someday and become part of that community. That's an interesting thing to aspire to.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right, see them, but now it's hard to predict that looking at the clock, if you're clever, the clock tells you. So I like the analogy with the ancient Greeks. You might think that an ancient Greek staring at the universe couldn't possibly tell how far away the sun was or how far away the moon is or how big the earth is, that all you can see is just big things in the sky you can't tell it. But they were clever enough actually to be able to figure out the size of the earth and the distance to the moon and the sun and the size of the moon. That is, they could figure those things out actually by being clever enough. And so similarly, we can actually figure out where are the aliens out there in space-time by being clever about the few things we can see, one of which is our current date. And so now that you have this living cosmology, we can tell the story that the universe starts out empty and then at some point things like us appear very primitive and then some of those stop being quiet and expand. And then for a few billion years they expand and then they meet each other. And then for the next hundred billion years, they commune with each other. That is the usual models of cosmology say that in rough”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Can you draw the story of the history of the universe here is what I would call a living cosmology. What I'm excited about, in part by this model, is that it lets us tell a story of cosmology where there are actors who have agendas. So most ancients peoples, they had cosmologies, the stories they told about where the universe came from and where it's going and what's happening out there and their stories, they like to have agents and actors, gods or something out there doing things. And lately our favorite cosmology is dead, kind of boring. We're the only activity we know about our sea and everything else just looks dead and empty. But this is now telling us, no, that's not quite right. At the moment, the universe is filling up and in a few billion years, it'll be all full. And from then on, the history of the universe will be the universe full of aliens.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Not I think we can exclude because if they could go faster than the speed of light, then they would just already be everywhere. So in a universe where you can travel faster than the speed of light, you can go backwards in spacetime. So anytime you appeared anywhere in spacetime, you could just fill up everything. So, anybody in the future whoever appeared, they would have been here by now”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But they're coming from a long way away. So remember, the rate at which they appear is one per million galaxies. So they're roughly 100 galaxies away.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“You might see it 10 million years in advance coming. I mean, you still might have a long warning. Again, the universe is 14 billion years old. The typical origin times of these things are spread over several billion years. So the chance of one originating at very close to you in time is very low. It still might take millions of years from the time you see it from the time it gets here. You have a million years of years to be terrified of this fear coming at you”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Right. The other alternative theory is the universe is filling up and will fill up soon. And so... We are typical for the origin date of things that can appear before the deadline.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Stays empty. And waits until this advanced life appears in trillions of years. That is, if the universe were just stay empty, if there was just, you know, nobody else out there. then when you should expect advanced life to appear, if you're the only one in the universe, when should you expect to appear? You should expect to appear trillions of years in the future.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Early compared to the prediction with an assumption that's wrong. So that's how we do a lot of theoretical analysis. You have a model that makes a prediction that's wrong, then that helps you reject that model.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So it's like cancer, right? There's all these cells, each of which randomly does or doesn't get cancer. And eventually some cell gets cancer and, you know, we were one of those.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So the grabby aliens are filling the universe right now, roughly at the moment they filled half of the universe and they've changed it. And when they fill everything, it's too late for stuff like us to appear.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Means one of the assumptions that calculated this. Crazy early must be wrong. What it means, so the key assumption we suggest is that the universe would stay empty. Most life would appear like a thousand times longer later than now. If everything would stay empty, waiting for it to appear.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Well, 10 to the 18 lucky, you know. How lucky do you feel So, you know That's pretty lucky, right? You know, 10 to the 18 is a billion billion.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“At lifetimes. That is the long planets near the end of the lifetime, trillions of years into the future. But we're really early compared to that. And our explanation is at the moment, as you saw in the video, the universe is filling up in roughly a billion years. It'll all be full. And at that point, it's too late for advanced life to show up. So you had to show up now before that deadline.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But the average star out there will last roughly five trillion years. That is a thousand times longer. And remember that power law? It says that the chance of advanced life appearing on a planet goes as the power of sixth of the time. So if a planet lasts a thousand times longer, then the chance of it appearing on that planet if everything would stay empty at least is a thousand to the sixth power or 10 to the 18. So enormous overwhelming chance that if the universe would just say sit and empty and waiting for advanced life to appear, when it would appear would be way at the end of all these”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That's what you have to believe if we look out and you don't see anything. Now you might say, well, maybe I just don't want to believe this whole model. Why should I believe this whole model at all? And our best evidence why you should believe this model is our early date. We are right now at almost 14 billion years into the universe on a planet around a star that's roughly 5 billion years old.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Depends on how fast they expand. So you could see that if they expanded at the speed of light, you wouldn't see them until they were here. So like out there, if somebody is destroying the universe with a vacuum decay, there's this doomsday scenario where somebody somewhere could change the vacuum of the universe and that would expand at the speed of light and basically destroy everything and hit. But you'd never see that until I got here because it's expanding at the speed of light. If you're expanding really slow, then you see it from a long way off. So the fact we don't see anything in the sky tells us they're expanding fast, say over a third the speed of light. And that's really, really fast.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“We're assuming we're just typical, maybe at the 50th percentile of them. So like half of them have appeared so far, the other half will still appear later. And the math of our best estimate is that they appear roughly once per million galaxies. And we would meet them in roughly a billion years if we expanded out to meet them.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Fast because the slow would create the puzzle. It slow predicts we would see them, but we don't see them. So the way to explain that is that they're fast. So, the idea is if they're moving really fast, then we don't see them until they're almost here.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“So that is, it might be only a thousand. But the point is if it's up to 10 million, that hardly makes any difference to the model. So I might as well give you 10 million.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“The speed at which they expand. There's the rate at which they appear in time, and that rate has a constant and a power. So we've talked about the history of life on Earth suggests that power is around six, but maybe three to twelve. We can say that constant comes from our current date, sort of sets the overall rate, and the speed, which is the last parameter, comes from the fact that we look in the sky, we don't see them. So the model predicts very strongly that if they were expanding slowly, say 1% of the speed of light, our sky would be full of vast spheres that were full of activity. That is, at a random time when a civilization is first appearing, if it looks out into its sky, it would see many other grabby alien civilizations in the sky. And they would be much bigger than the full moon. There'd be huge spheres in the sky. And they would be visibly different. We don't see them.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“But I think the higher calling to hold you to, which many people can be held to, is to say, I will look at things accurately. I will know the truth. And then I will also do the right thing with it. I will be at peace with my judgment about what the right thing is in terms of the truth. I don't need to be lied to. In order to figure out what the right thing to do is. And I think if you do think you need to be lied to in order to figure out what the right thing to do is, you're at a great disadvantage because then people will be lying to you. You will be lying to yourself and you won't be as effective at achieving whatever good you are trying to achieve.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“Sure. It's definitely true, as you say, that for many people, if you are accurate in your judgment of, say, for a medical patient, right, what's the chance that this treatment might help? And what's the cost? And compare those to each other, and you might say, This looks like a lot of cost for a small medical gain. And at that point, knowing that fact that might take the wing, you know, the air out of your sails, you might not be willing to do the thing that maybe you feel is right anyway, which is still to pay for it. And then somebody knowing that might want to keep that news from you, not tell you about the low chance of success or the high cost in order to save you this tension, this awkward moment where you might fail to do what they and you think is right.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“That wants to help the person in front of you, and that is actually the right thing to do, despite the analysis. And sometimes when you do the analysis, there's something about the human mind that allows you to not take that leap, that irrational leap. To act in this way, that the analysis explains it away. It's like, for example, the US government.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“It's not your favorite, sorry, but maybe we can do something, but maybe we can't do that much. This is very interesting that the cold analysis There's geopolitics, whether it's medicine. Whether it's economics sometimes misses something. Very specific aspect of Human condition like for example when you look at a doctor and the act of a doctor helping a single patient if you do the analysis of that doctor's time and cost of the medicine or the surgery or the transportation of the patient this is the Paul Farmer question Is it worth spending $10, $20,000, $30,000 on this one patient? When you look at all the people that are suffering in the world, that money could be spent so much better. And yet, there is something about human nature.”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“correlate with human morals. It seems cold and machine like in the selection process that it performs. I am an analyst. I'm a scholar, an intellectual, and I feel I should carefully distinguish predicting what's likely to happen and then evaluating or judging what I think would be better to happen. And it's a little dangerous to mix those up too closely because then we can have wishful thinking. And so I try typically to just analyze what seems likely to happen regardless of whether I like it or whether we do anything about it. And then once you see a rough picture of what's likely to happen if we do nothing, then we can ask, well, what might we prefer? And ask, where could the levers be to move it at least a little toward what we might prefer? That's a useful, but often doing that just analysis of what's likely to happen if we do nothing offends many people. They find that dehumanizing or cold or metal, as you say, to just say, well, this is what's likely to happen. And, you know,”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source
“And power is also roughly six. That is the chance of you getting cancer is roughly the power of six of the time you've been since you were born. It is perhaps not lost on people that you're comparing the power laws of the survival or the arrival of the human species. Cancerous cells. It's the same mathematical model, but of course we might have a different value assumption about the two outcomes. But of course, from the point of view of cancer. From the point of view of cancer, it's a win-win. We both get to thrive, I suppose. It is interesting to take the point of view of all kinds of life forms on Earth, of viruses, of bacteria, of a very different view. It's like the Instagram channel Nature is metal. Right. The ethic under which nature operates doesn't often”
2022-06-09 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source