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Liv Boeree

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222
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2022-08-24
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2022-08-24
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1
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  1. “Yes. So when you're playing this unexploitable style, but when your opponents start doing something suboptimal that you want to exploit, well, now that's where not only your logical brain will need to be thinking, well, okay, I know I have this, I'm at the sort of top end of my range here with this hand. So that means I need to be calling X percent of the time. And I put them on this range, et cetera. But then sometimes you'll have this gut feeling that will tell you, you know what, this time I know mathematically I meant to call now. I'm in the sort of top end of my range and this is the odds I'm getting. So the math says I should call, but there's something in your gut saying they've got it this time. They've got it.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  2. “It meant more into it, as we talked before about this game theory optimal style. But also, as I said, game theory optimal is about loss minimization and being unexploitable. But if you're playing against people who aren't, because no person, no human being can play perfectly game through optimal and poker. Not even the best AIs. They're 99.99% of the way there or whatever, but it's kind of like the speed of light. You can't reach it perfectly.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  3. “Not so much because their process was unintelligible, but it was more just because no one had the language with which to describe what optimal strategies were, because no one really understood how poker worked. This was before we had analysis software. No one was writing, you know, I guess some people would write down their hands in a little notebook, but there was no way to assimilate all this data and analyze it. But then when computers became cheaper and software started emerging and then obviously online poker, where it would like automatically save your hand histories, now all of a sudden you kind of had this body of data that you could run analysis on. And so that's when people started to see these mathematical solutions. And so, what that meant is the role of intuition essentially became smaller.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  4. “Yes and no. So gut feelings are definitely very important. You know, that we've got our tomb or you can distill it down to two modes of decision making, right? You've got your sort of logical linear voice in your head, system two, as it's often called, and your system on your gut, your gut intuition. Historically in poker, the very best players were playing almost entirely by their gut. You know, often they do some kind of inspired play and you'd ask them why they do it and they wouldn't really be able to explain it.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  5. “They're like, oh, sorry, new edition 14.6. Sorry, you can't use 14.5 anymore. It's like, what's different? We've got one paragraph different.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  6. “Well, not even that, but just like So much information, really high quality information, is now in digital format online.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  7. “I loved them because I loved, I'm very competitive and I liked I liked finding ways to gamify things and then sort of dust off my shoulders afterwards when I get a good grade or be annoyed at myself when I didn't. But yeah, you're absolutely right in that the actual, you know, how much of that physics knowledge I've retained, like I learned how to cram and study and please and examine a but did that give me the deep lasting knowledge that I needed? I mean, yes, yes and no, but really like nothing makes you learn a topic better than when you actually then have to teach it yourself. You know, like I'm trying to wrap my teeth around this game theory mollock stuff right now. And there's no exam at the end of it that I can gamify. There's no way to gamify sort of like shortcut my way through it. I have to understand it so deeply from like deep foundational levels to them to build upon it and then try and explain it to other people. And like, you know, you're about to go and do some lectures, right?”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  8. “I got through my entire physics degree with one textbook that was just this really comprehensive one that they told us at the beginning of the first year, buy this, but you're going to have to buy 15 other books for all your supplementary courses. And I was like, every time I just checked to see whether this book covered it, and it did. And I think I only bought like two or three extra. And thank God, because they're so super expensive textbooks. It's a whole racket they've got going on. Yeah, they are. They could just You get the right one. It's just like a manual for But what's interesting though is this is the tyranny of having exams and metrics”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  9. “And it would also be a really great filter in the first place for people, it selects people who read books and are willing to go and rate them and give feedback on them and so on. So that's already a really strong filter, probably the type of people you'd be looking for”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  10. “In some ways While I think on average people under try and quantify things or under optimize, there are some people who like with all these things, it's a balancing act.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  11. “Yeah, I think it's like something like you know you've got like a set of 100 people you're going to look through and after how many do you now after that after going on this many dates out of 100 at what point do you then go okay the next best person I see is that the right one and I think it's like something like 37%”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  12. “Imagine that there is, I mean, there's probably an optimal strategy. Does that mean that there's an actual nash equilibrium of picking up girls?”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  13. “Oh, yeah. Don't you like then speak to her friends first or something like that? Feign disinterest. I mean, it's classic pickup artist stuff, right?”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  14. “Yes, essentially. And what's interesting is that nowadays, if you want to be a top pro and you go and play in these really like the super high stakes tournaments or tough cash games, if you don't know this stuff, you're going to get eaten alive in the long run. But of course, you could get lucky over the short run, and that's where this luck factor comes in because luck is both a blessing and a curse. If luck didn't, you know, if there wasn't this random element and there wasn't the ability for worse players to win sometimes, then poker would fall apart. You know, the same reason people don't play chess professionally for money against, you know, you don't see people going and hustling chess, like not knowing, trying to make a living from it because you know there's very little luck in chess, but there's quite a lot of luck in poker.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  15. “What types of hands you want to bluff and what percentage of the time? So then there's this additional layer of inbuilt randomization built in.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  16. “So that's kind of then how it works in poker, but it's a lot more complex. And the way poker players typically, you know, nowadays they study, the games change so much, and I think we should talk about how it sort of evolved. But nowadays, the top pros basically spend all their time in between sessions running these simulators using like software where they do basically the Monte Carlo simulations, sort of doing billions of fictitious self-play hands. You input a fictitious hand scenario like, oh, what do I do with Jack9 suited on a King 10 4 spade board and against this bet size? So you'd input that, press play, it'll run, it's billions of fake hands, and then it'll converge upon what the game theory optimal strategies are. And then you want to try and memorize what these are. Basically, they're like ratios of how often you...”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  17. “Sure, yes, yes, yes. I'm more of a scissors girl. But anyway. No, I'm, as I said, randomizer. So I'm throwing rock too much or something like that. Now you'd be making a mistake by continuing playing this game theory optimal strategy, well, the previous one, because you are now, I'm making a mistake and you're not deviating and exploiting my mistake. So you'd want to start throwing paper a bit more often in whatever you figure is the right sort of percentage of the time that I'm throwing rock too often. So that's basically an example of where what Game 3 optimal strategy is in terms of loss minimization, but it's not always the maximally profitable thing if your opponent is doing stupid stuff. Which, you know, in that example.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  18. “Exactly. Because you don't know anything about me. You don't want to give anything about a way about yourself. So ideally, you'd have like a little dice or somewhat perfect randomizer that makes you randomize 33% of the time each of the three different things. And in response to that, well, actually, I can kind of do anything, but I would probably just randomize back too. But actually, it wouldn't matter because I know that you're playing randomly. So that would be in an ash equilibrium, where we're both playing this unexploitable strategy. However, if after a while you then notice that I'm playing rock a little bit more often than I should.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  19. “So, game theory is just basically the study of decisions within a competitive situation. I mean, statically a branch of economics, but it also applies to wider decision theory. Usually, when you see it, it's these little payoff matrices and so on. That's how it's depicted. But it's essentially just like the study of strategies under different competitive situations. And as it happens, certain games, in fact, many, many games, have these things called Nash equilibria. And what that means is when you're in a Nash equilibrium, basically it is not, there is no strategy that you can take that would be more beneficial than the one you're currently taking, assuming your opponent is also doing the same thing. So it would be a bad idea, you know, if we're both playing in a game three optimal strategy, if either of us deviate from that, now we're putting ourselves at a disadvantage. Rock Paper says, this is actually a really great example of this. We were to start playing rock papers, you know, you know nothing about me and we're going to play for all our money, let's play 10 rounds of it. What would your sort of optimal strategy?”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  20. “I'll be better at recognizing when you are playing suboptimally and then deviating from this game theory optimal strategy to exploit your bad plays.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  21. “Against any individual over time, the better player because they're making better decisions. So, what does that mean to make a better decision? To get into the real nitty-gritty already, basically poker is a game of math. There are these strategies familiar with like Nash equilibria, right? So there are these game theory optimal strategies that you can adopt. And the closer you play to them, the less exploitable you are. Because I've studied the game a bunch, although admittedly not for a few years, but back in, you know, when I was playing all the time, I would study these game theory optimal solutions and try and then adopt those strategies when I go and play. So I'd play against you and I would do that. And because the objective when you're playing game theory optimal, it's actually.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source

  22. “The longer you play, the less influence luck has, you know, like with all things, the bigger your sample size, the more the quality of your decisions or your strategies matter. So to answer that question, yeah, in poker, it really depends. If you and I sat and played 10 hands right now, I might only win 52% of the time, 53% maybe. But if we played 10,000 hands, then I'll probably win like over 98, 99% of the time. It's a question of sample sizes.”

    2022-08-24 · Lex Fridman Podcast · #314 – Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk · IDENTIFIED FROM THE TRANSCRIPT · source