Simon Hamilton
Strangford · Democratic Unionist Party · Northern Ireland
“I have emphasised to the Member and the House before, that, whilst I accept that those are not good enough — that is why we have been developing the plan — there are alternative technologies in place that can present opportunities for those who just cannot get acceptable speeds.”
“I thank the Member for his intervention. There are some initiatives that I believe will help and act as a driver to improve broadband access. One such intervention is the broadband universal service obligation (USO), which is being taken forward by Her Majesty's Government.”
“I thank the Member for his question. However, he is conflating two issues. I wrote to his party leader, and indeed to all Assembly party leaders, before making the announcement that I did last week about wanting to publish the details of the businesses in receipt of the non-domestic RHI scheme. It was my intention to do that tomorrow.”
“<BR /> <BR />The Chancellor, in his autumn statement, made some more funding available for telecommunications, and my Department is studying that and seeking to avail itself of that to the fullest possible extent.”
“In addition, my Department is managing a contract for the delivery of the superfast rollout programme, which, by 31 December, will provide access to superfast broadband with speeds of at least 24 megabits per second to a further 38,000 premises, both business and residential, across Northern Ireland, including in the Newry and Armagh cons…”
“I signalled the intention to do this a few weeks ago. The Member and the House will know that inspections of all installations would have taken place over the 20-year lifetime of the RHI scheme.”
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“It is worth acknowledging that the vast majority of civil servants take no or, indeed, very few days off sick each year.”
“In the discussion around our high but falling levels of sickness absence in the Civil Service, there is sometimes an understandable focus and concentration on those who are off sick; but it is worth noting that, in the last full year for which we have statistics, which is 2013-14, the percentage of civil servants who took no sick days throughout the year was 55·3% and that was up from 52·3% in 2012-13. It is not often understood or appreciated that well over half of all civil servants take no days off a year. That figure has been consistent. What causes the figures to be worryingly high, although they are falling, is that, of those who are off, one in ten are off for an average of three months, thus distorting the overall picture. The Member raises a very good point.”
“I do not think that the voluntary exit scheme, by itself, should or should not affect that, but I appreciate that reform and restructuring in its broadest sense is a sensitive issue and needs to be handled with care.”
“<BR /> <BR />The Member is right to highlight our policies around flexible working, work-share and job-share initiatives and so forth. That shows that, in the first instance, we would like to consider ourselves to be a caring and compassionate employer in the Civil Service, but there are also a range of policies in place to try to work around some of the pressures that people will feel in their everyday lives. <BR /> <BR />I appreciate that stress can be caused in any walk of life, but we are trying our best, as a Government, to mitigate some of the problems. That is done through routine intervention by the occupational health service, our employee assistance programme, which is delivered by Carecall, and all the other initiatives that we are actively trying to take forward to reduce levels of stress.”
“I thank the Member for her question. The analysis provided by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), which measures sickness absence rates on our behalf, shows up a lot of interesting issues around the causes and is broken down by gender and work area. One of the more concerning statistics is that stress-related absences account for over 30% of working days lost. I am sure that everybody in the House will agree that that is a worryingly high number. <BR /> <BR />I appreciate that the Civil Service is no different to many walks of life and that members of staff will face stress and pressures in the work they do. It is a reflection of broader society, and the stresses and strains of life will then be reflected in our workforce.”
“Managing attendance and reducing sick absence is a key priority in the Civil Service, and the work of all Departments in managing their sickness absence must continue and, indeed, intensify in some areas to ensure that the targets set out in the Programme for Government are achieved. I have asked my officials to review our Northern Ireland Civil Service policies and procedures and consider any changes or strategies that may be necessary to ensure that our ministerial targets are met.”
“Finally, the Bill authorises the Department of Justice to use resources of up to £50,000 in 2015-16 for the new judicial pension scheme. <BR /> <BR />At this stage, there is little more that I can usefully add on the Budget Bill. I look forward to continuing the debate today and will respond to as many points of principle or detail as Members wish to raise.”
“I must stress to the House that clause 5 does not provide for any additional cash out of the Consolidated Fund or convey any additional spending power, but it enables my Department to run a very efficient cash management regime.”
“<BR /> <BR />The Bill also authorises a Vote on Account for 2015-16 of cash of £7,075,640,000 and resources of £7,742,283,000 to allow the flow of cash and resources to continue to public services in the early months of 2015-16 until the Main Estimates and the related Budget Bill are approved in June later this year. Again, the cash and resources are to be appropriated and used for the services and purposes that are set out in column 1 of schedules 3 and 4 respectively. <BR /> <BR />Clause 5 of the Bill authorises the temporary borrowing by the Department of Finance and Personnel at a ceiling of £3,537,820,000 for 2015-16. This is a normal safeguard for any temporary deficiency arising in the fund.”
“<BR /> <BR />Therefore, not only does the Bill authorise the use of resources but it also authorises accruing resources, bringing the total resources for use by Departments and other public bodies to more than £19 billion. <BR /> <BR />The sums to be issued from the Consolidated Fund are to be appropriated by each Department or public body for services, as listed in column 1 of schedule 1 to the Bill, while the resources, including the accruing resources, are to be used for the purposes that are specified in column 1 of schedule 2 to the Bill. <BR /> <BR />The amounts now requested for 2014-15 supersede the Vote on Account in the Budget Act (Northern Ireland) 2014, which was passed this time last year, and the Main Estimate provision in the Budget (No. 2) Act (Northern Ireland) 2014 that was passed by this Assembly in June 2014.”
“This is some £337·5 million more than was authorised in the June Main Estimate. These amounts are detailed by Department in part 2 of each spring Supplementary Estimate for 2014-15. <BR /> <BR />In addition, the Bill revises for 2014-15 the limit on the amount of accruing resources that may be directed by my Department to be used for the purposes in column 1 of schedule 2. This limit includes both operating and non-operating accruing resources — in other words, current and capital receipts — and amounts to £2,386,731,000. Under section 8 of the Government Resources and Accounts Act (Northern Ireland) 2001, a direction on the actual use of the accruing resources will be provided by way of a DFP minute, which will be laid before this Assembly in March following Royal Assent of the Bill.”
“In fact, Standing Order 32 stipulates that the debate should concern itself with the narrow content of the Bill; a point which I hope Members will remember during today's proceedings. <BR /> <BR />For the benefit of Members and in accordance with Standing Order 32, I wish to summarise briefly the main features of the Bill. The purpose of the Bill is to authorise the issue of £15,646,075,000 from the Northern Ireland Consolidated Fund in 2014-15. This is nearly £172 million more than the amount that was authorised in the June Main Estimate. This cash is drawn down on a daily basis as needed from the Northern Ireland Consolidated Fund, which is managed by my Department on behalf of the Executive. <BR /> <BR />The Bill also authorises the use of resources totalling £17,051,879,000 by Departments and certain other public bodies.”
“<BR /> <BR />I shall now briefly outline the purpose of the legislation that is before us today and draw attention to the main provisions of the Bill. The debate follows the Bill's First Stage last week, which, in turn, followed the debate and approval of the three Supply resolutions that were introduced in this Chamber on 9 February. The purpose of the Bill is to give legislative effect to the 2014-15 spring Supplementary Estimates, the 2015-16 Vote on Account and the 2015-16 Main Estimate for the new judiciary pensions scheme. Copies of the Budget Bill and the explanatory and financial memorandum have been made available to Members today. <BR /> <BR />I do not intend to repeat the detail that was provided to Members during last week's very lengthy debate.”
“Preparation of the detailed Estimates and the related Budget Bill that is under consideration today was a challenging undertaking given the timetable involved. The Bill and Estimates must reflect the latest financial position, which was announced to the Assembly only on 19 January, yet the Bill requires Royal Assent prior to the end of this financial year. <BR /> <BR />I am therefore grateful that the Committee for Finance and Personnel has confirmed, in line with Standing Order 42, that it is satisfied that there has been appropriate consultation with it on the public expenditure proposals in the Bill and is content that it may proceed by accelerated passage. I again welcome and appreciate the assistance of the Committee in this matter.”
“Accelerated passage of the Bill through the Assembly is needed in order to ensure Royal Assent as early as possible in March. This is necessary to obtain legal authority for Departments and the other public bodies to spend the cash and use the resources in the Bill in 2014-15 and to ensure a smooth continuation of public services into 2015-16.”
“I beg to introduce the Budget Bill, which is a Bill to authorise the issue out of the Consolidated Fund of certain sums for the service of the years ending 31 March 2015 and 2016; to appropriate those sums for specified purposes; to authorise the Department of Finance and Personnel to borrow on the credit of the appropriated sums; to authorise the use for the public service of certain resources for the years ending 31 March 2015 and 2016; and to revise the limits on the use of certain accruing resources in the year ending 31 March 2015.”
“<BR /> <BR />Whilst there have been many positive developments during the year, no one should be in any doubt that the public expenditure environment is expected to remain challenging until the end of the decade. However, with progress on many fronts this year, I believe that we are now in a much better position to deal with difficult public expenditure decisions in the future. <BR /> <BR />To draw my remarks to a conclusion, Mr Deputy Speaker, I ask Members to support the three motions: on the 2014-15 spring Supplementary Estimates, the 2015-16 Vote on Account and the 2015-16 Main Estimate in relation to the new judiciary pension scheme.”
“We have negotiated an excellent package of measures with our own Government to ensure sustained investment here: we have secured funding to restructure the public-sector workforce to deliver much needed reform of our public sector; additional funding has been made available to invest in shared schools infrastructure; we have taken steps to agree a way forward on welfare reform; only last month, I announced the Executive's 2015-16 Budget; we have also secured Her Majesty's Government's commitment to the devolution of corporation tax, which gives us control over that important fiscal lever to boost inward investment and to support economic growth.”
“I believe that the Stormont House Agreement gives us a good kick-start and a good beginning for the organisation of government and the creation of an opposition. <BR /> <BR />In conclusion, as has been evident during the debate today, this has been a difficult and challenging year for our public finances. However, I am pleased that the Executive and Assembly have again delivered for the people of Northern Ireland.”
“There are many things in the House that we will disagree about, particularly on constitutional issues, but we agree on many economic and social policies, and the Programme for Government is a very good basis on which we can build. <BR /> <BR />We are facing a period of very challenging, ambitious reform that will change positively Northern Ireland for the good. Difficult decisions and tough choices will be required along the way, and that is going to require those of us who want to put our shoulder to the wheel to do so. Many in the House do not wish to put their shoulder to the wheel and make their contribution. That means that those of us who want to make a positive contribution must do so to reach a consensus.”
“When he talked about getting more detailed information, if we were to put in every single line of expenditure, compared with this document, which shows quite a high level of detail, I shudder to think how many rooms the size of this place we would need. Perhaps he does not want us to go to that extreme. <BR /> <BR />In a very interesting contribution, Mr John McCallister made some points that I can do nothing other than agree with. In fact, based on some of his comments, I know that the Member has been listening to me. As we move forward, particularly as we are on the cusp of or are in the middle of very challenging times, we need more political consensus in this place on Northern Ireland's economic and social direction.”
“I know that the timeliness of the information that Departments provide to their Committees is of concern right across the House. It is something that I have no particular sway over. I encourage all Ministers, including myself, I suppose, to ensure that we provide timely information to our Committees to let them do their job. However, it is very much up to Committees to push their Ministers and Departments to get the information to them in a timely fashion so that they can do the job that we have tasked them to do. <BR /> <BR />The Member's broader points are best seen through the monitoring round process, which is what is regularised in the Estimates that are before us today.”
“In advance of the reform of our Budget process, I direct the Member to our monitoring rounds and particularly to the tables that are produced behind those monitoring rounds so that he can see where money is flowing from and going to. All that is explained there.”
“It is out of date, and it needs to be changed. I hope that the reorganisation of Departments will necessitate some change in how we do our financial process. I also hope that that will be an opportunity to change and improve and to do what we have been trying to for the last number of years. <BR /> <BR />The general point is that Departments will always spend a bit less than you expected them to, even with the best of budget management. We have far better budget management now than we had in the past. Some will, therefore, get to spend a little bit more because some will spend a little bit less. That is all outlined in our monitoring rounds.”
“Health is one of the Departments that is, I suppose, a winner in next year's Budget. It is up some £204 million on its 2014-15 baseline. The significant reduction that he pointed to in the DRD budget — I accept that he is right in saying that it is a significantly reduced requirement — flows primarily from the A5 and the inability to move that forward. We were able to reallocate that in year through the formal process, but the decisions about where that money would go were made in October 2013. <BR /> <BR />I accept that there are issues around the process, which is something that Mr Cree and I talk about regularly in this place. However, the general points in Mr McCrea's comments that I want to deal with are that he seemed to highlight and ask questions about the fact that we do not have the right process.”
“I took some persuasion from Executive colleagues to do this and that it was wise investment of capital money, which we had a little bit of, to purchase leased property so that, in future years, we would save money by not having to pay rent. We do this with PFIs as well. That has been moving forward, and we are in the process of purchasing several buildings before the year end that will realise significant savings and resource expenditure in future years. <BR /> <BR />He mentioned Health and its baseline next year.”
“Those are questions better directed to the Culture, Arts and Leisure Minister, particularly those around the City of Culture legacy. I agree with him that that is something that we should have been supporting. It was not sufficient, in my view or the Executive's view, that we invest all of that money in securing the bid and developing the infrastructure and then just let it wither on the vine without further nurturing it over future years. However, where expenditure should go specifically is not information that I am necessarily privy to. That is a matter for DCAL. <BR /> <BR />The DFP capital increase is as the Member predicted. As part of our asset management strategy, over £20 million additional was allocated to DFP in-year to purchase what was previously leased property. It probably seemed a bit odd to some at the start.”
“That is the £30 million rates convergence scheme that is there to iron out issues with rates and spikes in rates that there might be as a result of two or three councils with different rate levels coming together; that is proceeding. <BR /> <BR />I turn to Mr Basil McCrea's comments. I want to make a general point at the end, but I will try to deal with a few of the specifics. He asked quite a few questions. He is a member of the Committee for Culture, Arts and Leisure, as he pointed out, and he asked a lot of detailed questions about expenditure, where it went, where it did not go, what this is for, and what that was for. As much as, in some moments, I might like to do the job of everybody in the Executive, at the risk of becoming a megalomaniac, I am not going to do that.”
“That is reflected in this Budget to the tune of several million pounds. I think that there is an allocation of £3 million to heritage-led development in this financial year. The 2015-16 Budget also includes an allocation of £0·5 million of financial transactions capital for heritage-led development. <BR /> <BR />I am happy to check Hansard to correct what I am saying, but Mr Attwood made the point that rates support promised by the Executive to local government is under threat. I want to put on record that that is not the case. The only rates support that the Executive have promised to local government is being delivered.”
“If it is dealt with by the Executive in the next number of days, purdah will not be an issue to concern us. <BR /> <BR />He asked a few questions of me, and I want to address a couple of those. One was around heritage-led development and how I could reconcile the Vote on Account with my support for heritage-led development. The first point is that the Vote on Account does not have a particular line for heritage-led development. That is a point that was misunderstood throughout today's debate, but there is nothing new there in respect of Estimates and Vote on Account debates. Any allocation for heritage-led development is a matter for the Minister of the Environment to take forward. What I can say, to back up my support for heritage-led development, is that I have supported it through the capital reallocation exercise.”
“That is why that piece of legislation is there. <BR /> <BR />As I said, I am not unsympathetic to the point he was making around the teacher training colleges, Stranmillis and St Mary's. The First Minister and deputy First Minister have called that issue into the Executive, and I hope that that will deal with the substance of it. If additional funding is required as a result of whatever resolution the Executive agree in respect of all of this matter, that will be dealt with in the in-year monitoring round process. <BR /> <BR />The Member seemed to have a particular concern around purdah kicking in. I have to say that, over recent elections, I have not seen any Minister respect purdah; perhaps this election will be slightly different. However, I have received no advice that purdah will be an issue in dealing with this matter.”
“I am not unsympathetic to the thrust of the amendment that was being put forward. Indeed, Mr Attwood did me the courtesy of phoning me last week to talk to me about it. As I said to him when we spoke, which I will put on the record now, it is not that I am unsympathetic to the point that he is making. I will come to how it might be resolved by different means. Section 63 is there, particularly in respect of Assembly Members approving increases in the Budget, for very good safeguarding reasons. Although, Mr Allister's amendment was at least trying to reduce the Budget, Mr Attwood's amendment was trying to increase the Budget. Whether for good causes or not, we cannot have Members coming to the House and proposing increases in expenditure and Budget lines that the Executive cannot afford to meet.”
“That works on the basis of the principle that only the Executive can ask the Assembly for more money.”
“<BR /> <BR />I thank Mr Lyttle and welcome the fact that, once again, the Alliance Party is making it perfectly clear that it is in support of the introduction of water charges just as it is in support of significant increases in people's rates bills and doing away with free fares for pensioners. I thank the Member for once again putting on public record his party's support for higher water charges, higher rates and doing away with concessionary fares for pensioners. <BR /> <BR />I regret that Alex Attwood is not here, because he raised several points, and I wanted to respond to him directly. He is right: an amendment in the name of the SDLP was tabled but not accepted. The aforementioned section 63 means that a Budget cannot be amended without my approval.”
“<BR /> <BR />Over the last four years, £660 million has been invested in our fresh and waste water infrastructure. I am sure we would all like to see that much higher, but the 2011-15 Budget was significant at its outset in hitting the capital budget. We have the flip side of that now, where our resource budget is under pressure. In fact, all projections would suggest that our capital position will improve. <BR /> <BR />I cannot guarantee that any of that, above and beyond what might be expected, will go to Northern Ireland Water, but in a situation where a marked improvement is projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility in capital investment, we would expect to see a significant volume of that investment go towards Northern Ireland Water.”
“Indigenous firms are growing as well, and that budget increase will help that to continue. <BR /> <BR />Mr McGlone asked about the industrial guarantee. There are no blank cheques, but I want that support to continue. No worthwhile proposal to create investment or jobs in Northern Ireland will be lost. <BR /> <BR />Most of Mr Lyttle's comments were about Northern Ireland Water. I am happy to take it up with him at a later stage, but he talked about, I think, projected capital investment in Northern Ireland Water and how it falls short in the run-up to 2021. There is no Budget in place up until 2021, so anything that is there is indicative or whatever it might be. In fact, there is nothing beyond 2016. The last Budget we have is for 2015-16. The CSR will dictate spend probably not even up to 2021.”
“<BR /> <BR />At a time when our overall Budget is being reduced by 1·6% in real terms, the fact that we ensured that the DETI budget is up by over 10%, when there were competing concerns such as health, education and other public services looking for more money, shows our commitment to ensuring that that excellent track record continues. <BR /> <BR />The Estimates before us include a pertinent in-year example of that support. DETI's budget was protected from reductions. In fact, it was slightly increased in-year, again to ensure that Invest Northern Ireland and Arlene Foster are able to go around the world and attract those jobs to Northern Ireland. In fact, she was in Mr Bell's and my constituency just last week, announcing an investment in an agrifoods business to create 55 jobs, so it is not just foreign direct investment.”
“Perhaps Mr Rogers, instead of coming in here and making good speeches in this Chamber, would do well to convince his party colleague Mr Durkan of the need to support additional allocations for the Department of Education in the Budget. <BR /> <BR />Mr McGlone, in his capacity as Chair of the Committee for Enterprise, Trade and Investment, raised many issues, obviously around the DETI budget. I want to point out to the House and to Mr McGlone that the Executive have shown their support for DETI, economic development, job creation and investment in our economy through increasing DETI's budget by 10·4% next year. That is to ensure that the good work in creating and promoting new jobs and attracting investment into Northern Ireland can continue.”
“<BR /> <BR />Seán Rogers, who has persevered and stayed with us through most of this afternoon, spoke at length about economic development and the link between economic development and education. He is absolutely right: we need a good, strong education system not just at primary and secondary level but, obviously, at third level as well if we are to ensure that our economy continues to grow. <BR /> <BR />He also called for more investment in education. It is a pity that Mr Rogers's plea for more investment in education did not make its way to his party's Minister, Mr Durkan, who, in the Executive, of course, voted against an allocation of an extra £63 million for education.”
“<BR /> <BR />While there are people who will argue that there should be more here and more there and that it is not enough overall, Sammy Wilson is absolutely right to point out that what we are able to allocate through these Estimates today as an Executive is greatly inflated because we are part of the United Kingdom. The fiscal transfer that we receive from the rest of the UK allows us to spend £9·6 billion annually more than we raise in tax revenue ourselves. The nature of any state like that is that you have to take the rough with the smooth, and there is undoubtedly some rough to take. However, £9·6 billion of an annual subvention is not a bad deal for the people of Northern Ireland.”
“However, as Mr Wilson and Mr McCallister pointed out, when one looks at the complete collapse in the Southern economy since 2008-09 onwards — thankfully, it is recovering; we need it to recover because, as one of our biggest export markets, we need it to be doing well, and we are glad that it is — the experience over the last five years in the Irish Republic showed us that, while Sinn Féin may wish to argue that austerity is the price of the Union, economic and social collapse in Northern Ireland would be the price of a united Ireland.”
“It is right and proper that those two key public services, which people in Northern Ireland want their politicians to support, are being supported and are getting the lion's share of public spending in Northern Ireland at some 65%. <BR /> <BR />Mr Hazzard started well, and then it all went downhill from there. He talked about how austerity is the price of the Union.”
“She is right that the revaluation in the education pension, and indeed other public service pensions, will last for four years. The first year cost in 2015-16 will be covered out of a centralised allocation that was covered in the Budget. She asked a question about future years. It is a matter for the Executive in the context of future Budgets as to how we want to deal with that. The decision will definitely be needed in the next Budget process, which will come post-CSR. <BR /> <BR />Chris Hazzard mentioned the fact that some 65% of our Budget was being spent on health and education. There are some people, and there may even be some in this place, who want to criticise just two Departments getting two thirds of the entire Budget, but I am not one of those people.”
“It is one of those areas that needs reform and change, but we should not come into this place and we certainly should not go on the airwaves and talk about money not being well spent on the NHS when we all have an understanding, either personally through our families, or our constituents, that there is money being well spent in the NHS in Northern Ireland. Does it get everything right? No, it does not, but it gets a lot right, and it is money well spent. The people who are working in our NHS are making a real difference in people's lives every single day in this country. <BR /> <BR />Michelle McIlveen, in her capacity as Chair of the Education Committee, raised several queries. The particular one that I can address is around pension revaluation.”
“When I see the fall in the standardised death rate as a result of heart attacks down from 79 to 61 per 1,000, I think that that is money well spent. When I see the standardised death rate for people under the age of 75 suffering strokes falling from 14·4% to 12·6%, I think that that is money well spent. When I see employment of doctors up 20% and nurses up 4%, I tend to think that that is money well spent. <BR /> <BR />I would be the first person to say that not everything is perfect with our NHS in Northern Ireland.”
“It is spending close to half of our Budget, after all, and perhaps should be talked about a little bit more in these debates. Mr McKinney, not unusually, was not speaking glowingly about what the NHS in Northern Ireland is doing. In fact, he said that some £80 million that was additionally allocated to the Health Department in-year was not spent well. <BR /> <BR />I am not sure that I would share the conclusion that money spent on the NHS in Northern Ireland is not spent well. When I look at indicators suggesting that Northern Ireland has the best breast cancer survival rate in the whole of the UK, I come to the conclusion that that is money well spent. When I look at the respective reductions of 40% and 18% in MRSA and clostridium difficile infections, I think that that is money well spent.”
“<BR /> <BR />Mr Fearghal McKinney talked, as he tends to do in these debates, rightly so, in respect of health spending.”
“It is disappointing that that money was not able to be spent in-year. I have given the Minister an assurance that, should it be needed for the regional stadia programme, her Department will have the first call on capital in future monitoring rounds. Mr McCausland also mentioned the Ulster Orchestra. I am very, very pleased that we were able to make an allocation of £500,000 to the orchestra in the January monitoring round. That is reflected in the Estimates that are before us today. I appreciate and understand that, its immediate future having been secured, further work has to be done on securing the Ulster Orchestra's longer-term future. Work is ongoing between my Department's officials and, primarily, DCAL officials to do that.”
“As we know, construction and retail have been struggling throughout the crisis and still lag behind. Construction does so for obvious reasons around the property market and the availability of cheap or available finance. Retail has been affected both by the downturn and by changes in retail habits that, I think, are now probably having a bigger impact on retail than the crisis. It is certainly something worth monitoring, although I take some solace from the fact that Ulster Bank says that it does not see it as the beginning of a spiral downwards or anything like that. <BR /> <BR />In his capacity of Chair of the Culture Committee, Nelson McCausland talked about the reduced requirement in respect of regional stadia. Mr McCrea mentioned that as well. I will try my best to come to the specific points that he made.”
“The Ulster Bank PMI is one of the indicators that had been viewed as a sign of how bad our economy was during the crisis, but about 18 months ago it started to move in the right direction. We have had about 18 months of good PMIs coming from the Ulster Bank survey. The last couple have shown some more worrying and troubling indications. It is interesting that the comments from the chief economist at the Ulster Bank are that this is more of a blip and the increase in activity across a range of sectors, indeed all sectors, had been so markedly upward that it was bound to go down a little bit at some stage. Clearly, if that develops in the wrong direction over a longer period, there will be more cause for concern. In some ways I am not surprised — maybe a little surprised that manufacturing has not done well this month or last month.”