Sir Mel Stride
MP for Central Devon · Conservative · United Kingdom
“May I welcome the Chancellor to his position and thank him for his kind remarks earlier? May I also wish him every success, because I am afraid that under this Government we need some? He will know that if we are to fix the economy, we have to fix the welfare bill.”
“Given all that is going on, this could be the last time. The legacy of this Chancellor has been the highest taxes on record, a benefits bill spiralling out of control, and unemployment 300,000 higher than it was at the last general election. The right hon.”
“The right hon. Lady cannot bring herself to answer the simple question I asked. I will tell her: she is borrowing one quarter of a trillion pounds more than the plans that she inherited—that is her legacy. We hear that the right hon. Member for Makerfield (Andy Burnham) is considering borrowing even more.”
“May I begin by agreeing with you, Mr Speaker, and saying how disrespectful it is that this U-turn on fuel duty has already been released to the media earlier this week?”
“Today’s announcements will bring little comfort to the hundreds of thousands of people who have lost their jobs, the countless businesses that have folded and the high streets that are now hollowed out.”
“The Conservative party has been campaigning for a fuel duty freeze for months. The Chancellor repeatedly rejected those calls, creating unnecessary uncertainty for motorists and businesses. Why did it take her so long to realise that putting up fuel duty during an energy crisis is a bad idea?”
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“I urge the Treasury to look carefully at the way in which companies are undertaking investment expenditure. We know there have historically been weaknesses, quite outside the crisis. Measures such the R&D tax credits will be important in that respect. I notice that clause 19 provides a cap on those for SMEs, which, if I understand the clause correctly, is about ensuring that there is no double counting or double relief between a principal company and a subcontractor. When the Bill goes into Committee, that provision should be given careful scrutiny. I welcome clause 15, on the extension of the annual investment allowance at the £1 million level, albeit that that is temporary.”
“Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury were looking for areas where there might be a Laffer effect, I would point him to three taxes: the higher rate of capital gains tax; the stamp duty land tax on high-value properties; and duty on cigarettes. There is scope for reducing rates and getting a higher yield in all three of those areas. I very much welcome the super deduction. I guess that there was an inevitability to it; if we signal that corporation tax rates will go up in future, we tend to find that companies delay investment such that they can gain the offset from those investments against a higher corporation tax rate. It is therefore important that the super deduction came in—in a sense, to stop that forestalling. What happens after that two-year period of the super deduction will be critical.”
“In the context of corporation tax, it is often argued that—because corporation tax fell from 28% to 19% between 2010 and the present day, and at the same time the yield from corporation tax rose by 50%— there is some kind of causation, rather than correlation. I would argue quite strongly against that. I think that the improved yield from corporation tax was as much to do with improvements in the economy across that period, the bank levy, the bank surcharge and various anti-avoidance measures such as the corporate interest restriction. We should not fool ourselves into believing that raising taxes on companies will necessarily yield less in the medium to longer term—albeit that in the longer term we of course want to see those taxes as low as possible. Incidentally, if my right hon.”
“It will be important to support particularly our small and medium-sized enterprises as we come through this crisis. There are many reasons, which I will not go into in huge detail now, why that particular sector of the economy may be especially vulnerable as we come through the crisis. In the event that large swathes of SMEs go out of business, we could well see increases in market concentration and a contingent decrease in competitiveness across the economy, so it is important that we are careful and that the Treasury is mindful of the fact that those small and medium-sized enterprises will need ongoing support. I want to say just one thing about the Laffer effect.”
“Through freezing the personal allowance, as well as raising more money, there is some benefit in ensuring that those who benefit from public services do, at least to some degree—albeit that we want a very progressive system—also pay tax to support those services. Corporation tax also provides a large amount of money to the Exchequer. The Bill provides for quite a large increase in corporation tax, from 19% to 25%. The critical point is that we remain internationally competitive. The shadow Minister mentioned on a number of occasions President Biden and his tax policy. Well, his policy is to increase corporation or federal taxes from 21% to 28%. If we add on state taxes, that still leaves us very competitive—even at 25%—and certainly among members of the G7. I was pleased to see in the Bill the small business rate relief.”
“The fact that the Chancellor has chosen to freeze thresholds rather than increase rates allows him, of course, to maintain the triple lock commitment in the Conservative manifesto. Incidentally, I have always argued that, depending on how things pan out, the public might perhaps—under the circumstances—forgive the Government were they to decide to breach the manifesto in one or two areas, given the extraordinary times in which we live, but it is good that the Chancellor has managed to avoid doing so, at least on this occasion. We need a progressive tax system. Of course, with income tax—the wealthiest 1% paying some 28% of income tax—that is exactly what we have; but we also need an income tax system that does not undermine the link between those who pay tax and public spending.”
“That would be an increase in interest rates, and we know from the forecasters that, roughly, a 1% increase in interest rates would lead to a £25 billion additional black hole in the public finances. To put that in some perspective, it would be equivalent to all the money that has been raised through the increases in corporation tax and the income tax threshold freezes. It is therefore essential that this Bill goes through the House to demonstrate that the Government are serious about getting on top of the public finances. I would like to focus on some of the measures in the Bill. I turn first to income tax. I think that was the right place to go—a broad-based, important, very high-yielding tax—in order to raise the kinds of amounts that are required.”
“I think he mentioned the OBR, but he could equally have mentioned the IMF, whose recent forecasts for the UK economy point to a lower peak in unemployment than was feared at the start of the crisis. All of that is due, not just to the work that has been done to roll out the vaccine, but to the support packages that the Government have provided. I am not saying that everything has been perfect, but overall I think the effort has been pretty impressive. The Bill is one step in an important journey to restore the health of the public finances. My right hon. Friend did not tell the House, because it is not his role to frighten the horses, what the consequence would be if we did not signal clearly to the markets that we are serious about getting on top of both our debt and the deficit.”
“I shall speak in support of Second Reading. The opening remarks by my right hon. Friend the Financial Secretary to the Treasury were extremely well made. He pointed out the huge challenges that we face as a country due to the economic crisis and the worst drop in GDP for 300 years, but he also rightly spoke of the extraordinary work that the Treasury and HMRC have carried out over the past 12 months to ensure that, at pace, we have had bold initiatives that have supported the economy, not least the labour force. I know, having held his position for about the same time as he has held it, just how high-quality those people are and how hard and imaginatively they will have worked over the previous months. My right hon. Friend was right also to draw the attention of the House to the improved outlook across the various forecasts.”
“Dartmoor, which lies at the heart of my constituency, has been the beautiful place of challenge where so many people from all over our country and from a huge diversity of backgrounds have embraced the Duke of Edinburgh’s dream, and millions of young people up and down the United Kingdom and across 140 countries around the world have much to thank him for. He changed lives, and that is a legacy of which to be especially proud. Above all, however, our thoughts must be with Her Majesty the Queen and her family. Over 70 years of marriage, the longest serving British royal consort in our history and a long life as a supportive husband to Queen Elizabeth now leave what must be a terribly painful void. Our thoughts are with the Queen and all her family, and the thoughts of my family—of Michelle, Natascha, Ophelia and Evelyn—are with her, too.”
“It was not until the age of 96 that he retired from royal duties. He truly did fill Kipling’s “unforgiving minute with 60 seconds’ worth of distance run.” He will be especially remembered for championing the environment, and of course, as we have heard, for the Duke of Edinburgh’s Award, in which hundreds of thousands take part every year, including many young people in my constituency, to develop their skills and mature into more confident, capable and caring people—to give them, as he termed it, a sense of responsibility to themselves and their communities. In my constituency, the Duke of Edinburgh’s Award is offered at all three of my secondary schools and it is embraced with vigour, with around 100 students at Queen Elizabeth’s School in Crediton alone completing an award in a typical year.”
“Today’s tributes have demonstrated that there are few who have lived a life as full as that of The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. There are even fewer who have dedicated their life to the service of our country with such resolution and unwavering commitment. His was a long life that saw early service in the Navy in the second world war, where he served with distinction within both the Mediterranean and Pacific fleets. Before that, he graduated as best in class as a naval cadet at the Royal Naval College in Dartmouth, something of which we in Devon are particularly proud. There could surely be few as active as he in support of both community and country. He was a patron, president or member of more than 800 organisations and he made over 22,000 solo engagements during the reign of Her Majesty the Queen.”
“I very much welcome my right hon. Friend’s announcement in the Budget of the super deduction, which will definitely have a very positive impact on investment. Of course, it will primarily do that by pulling forward what would have been future investment into a more recent time period. What measures is my right hon. Friend looking to, to ensure that that increase in corporate investment in the shorter term is continued into the medium and longer term?”
“Friend’s Budget today, but I conclude by supporting each and every one of them.”
“The Treasury Committee will continue to be critical of him where appropriate, but also supportive in our common endeavour of putting the economy back on track. In conclusion, I broadly welcome this Budget. It comes against the backdrop of one of the worst economic crises outside of wartime. Yet there is hope that springs from the past, and the strength that we held going into this crisis, of strong and stable financial institutions, record levels of employment, and hard-won improvements in our public finances. But now hope springs also, it seems to me, from the future: from the thousands of men and women—our scientists, health workers and volunteers—who appear to be on the brink of little short of a miracle, the wholesale turnaround in our country’s fortunes due to vaccination. Therefore, in broad terms I welcome my right hon.”
“We also do not know what will happen to the huge amount of effectively enforced savings as people have been unable to engage in the economy in the usual fashion—perhaps up to £200 billion or £300 billion by the summer, the Bank of England has suggested. If a lot of that goes back into the economy quickly, it will have a huge stimulus effect. If very little does, clearly the opposite will be the case. It is therefore absolutely right that my right hon. Friend is ready and prepared to use the fiscal levers as appropriate over the coming months. If he comes back to the House of Commons many times to do so, I think that should be seen as a position of strength, rather than weakness. I wish him well.”
“It could come through the exchange rate, although recent movements have been in a positive direction, as the virus is being clamped down on and our prospects have improved relative to other economies. Inflation could also come through increases in energy costs and the price of oil, or indeed the unwinding of some of the tax cuts, for example those relating to VAT. But inflation could also come through the interplay between the supply and demand sides of the economy as we recover. On the supply side, it remains uncertain how quickly companies will bounce back. We know that many of them have been severely damaged. On the demand side, it is also the case that we will not know at this stage the extent to which consumers will re-engage with the economy in the way they did before the pandemic, even though the virus is diminishing.”
“I want to turn briefly to an issue that I think is an underestimated threat that has not been discussed enough in an economic context: a return of inflation. Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has pointed to this risk recently. We know that if inflation increases and spikes, the Bank of England would need to tighten monetary policy to try to keep inflation under control. We would have bond markets in which the Government and the Bank of England were potentially both sellers, with increased upward pressure on interest rates and all that would follow. Inflation might come through increased friction in global trade, and we have seen increased friction in trade with the EU27 as a consequence of Brexit.”
“Of course, we have demographic pressures going way into the future, with an increasingly elderly population and the pressures that will put on our finances. My right hon. Friend knows that it is critical that we deal with these pressures in a timely manner, or interest rates will rise—and, as he has stated, a 1% rise would mean an eye-watering £25 billion increase in the cost of servicing our debt. That brings me to the principles that my right hon. Friend has set out today: not borrowing to fund day-to-day expenditure at some point in the future; and having an eye to seeing the level of debt as a percentage of GDP decreasing over time. Those are welcome signals from my right hon. Friend.”
“However, we still will remain internationally competitive, and I believe that President Biden, during his campaign for the presidency, suggested US rates might rise from 21% to 28%. So I think, on balance, this is a reasonable move, given that none of the possibilities is particularly palatable, and I welcome the carve-out for small businesses through the small profit rate. It was pleasing to hear from my right hon. Friend that the OBR’s current projections have improved, and that we are hopefully going to get back to pre-pandemic levels of economic output six months earlier than was thought in November. But of course we still, as he has identified, face a huge challenge going forward, not just around covid, but with the issue that we will have a smaller economy and less taxes that will be able to be raised.”
“Friend’s Budget was to what degree he navigated successfully the requirement not to put up taxes too early and choke off growth, but at the same time making it very clear to the markets that he and the Government are serious about dealing with the deficit and debt in the more medium term. I have to say that, once again, I have been pretty impressed with what I have heard. I want to see the detail. However, it seems to me that the tax increases and the threshold freezes that my right hon. Friend has announced do not kick in straightaway but he has charted a clear road map for how those taxes and thresholds will be dealt with between now and the end of this Parliament. If I could just say, on the issue of corporation tax, that it is quite a hike from 19% to 25%.”
“I welcome the three-year loss carry-back arrangements—also something the Committee has pressed for. My third point is around skills. I have been very impressed with all the announcements that have been made around encouraging apprenticeships, and there was more in the Budget statement just now. On the kickstart scheme, it is imperative that we get this right and that we maximise the efficiency of the transfer of parts of the labour force from those parts of the economy and businesses that are contracting to those that are expanding. I think the Treasury needs to play a very proactive role in making sure that those schemes are successful. One of the big tests I set in my mind for my right hon.”
“I would like to see something from the Chancellor as to how that particular problem might be addressed. If it is not, the risk is that many of these SMEs will go out of business and markets will become more concentrated and less competitive as a consequence. Secondly, on investment, I was hugely encouraged by what my right hon. Friend said about the super deduction. My own view was that there should be an increase in the annual investment allowance. It seems to me that this goes significantly beyond that. The devil will be in the detail, but certainly, if the kind of projections for investment that he has just outlined by way of the OBR’s figures are correct, as I understood them, this will be a huge shot in the arm for corporate UK and very welcome.”
“I want to focus on three important areas for business and jobs, and comment on what the Chancellor had to say in that respect. The first is corporate debt. The situation is that the data shows that larger businesses have a great deal of cash in the bank, and it is perhaps not surprising that they have been cautious, that they have received quite a lot of support from Government and, of course, that a lot of them have not been investing. However, among small and medium-sized enterprises the picture is less clear. I have a concern that many of those businesses will struggle with the level of the debt that they have, that they will not be growing when we want them to be creating the jobs of the future and that they will be focusing on de-leveraging their balance sheets.”
“If I could turn briefly to the so-called excluded—those who have fallen through the gaps of support hitherto—I am a little disappointed not to have heard something by way of support for those directors working through their own limited companies, paying themselves by way of dividend, yet not having those dividends counted towards their entitlement for furlough. There have been new ideas explored by the Committee, and I would hope, even at this late stage, that the Chancellor will consider some of those ideas with the Committee next week. I was, however, extremely pleased to see that the new self-assessment tax information that has been taken on board—right up until, I think the Chancellor said, last night—will be taken into account in helping many of those who would otherwise have fallen through the gaps in support, some 600,000 in total.”
“As we come through this recovery, there is no doubt that certain parts of the economy will pick up quicker than others. Some businesses will do better than others, so I welcome the 30% turnover threshold that my right hon. Friend has introduced, so that he can more accurately target the relief where it is needed. That goes also for what I understand of his announcements on grants, and of course the VAT reduction extension that will help particularly hard-pressed sectors. I also welcome the investment that he has announced in areas of the country, many of which will have suffered particularly during the crisis. I think that is also welcome targeting.”
“I broadly welcome this Budget, although I say that being aware that the devil is always in the detail of Budgets. We very much look forward to welcoming my right hon. Friend the Chancellor to the Treasury Committee on Thursday next week to look at that detail in more detail. I totally applaud the measures that the Chancellor has taken in extending the bridge of support—the bridge between the crisis and the recovery. I think the measures he has taken around furlough, support for the self-employed and the extension of the VAT reduction, business rate relief and so on are all most welcome. I also very much welcome, as I and the Treasury Select Committee have been pressing for them for some time, the targeted elements that he has introduced.”
“There is a looming bloodbath for many businesses at the end of March, when the moratorium on commercial landlords taking action against tenants in arrears comes to an end. Does my right hon. Friend recognise that acute danger? What action might he consider taking to avoid it?”
“Finally, there will be issues around trade frictions and how prepared or otherwise we are to deal with those over the coming weeks and months. Today we move on. If we play it right, this will lead to better, not worse, relationships with our European neighbours. With that in mind, let us not lose hold of at least the vision of the EU’s founding fathers: that a continent that had been the crucible of two world conflagrations should live together in peace, co-operation and friendship. Let us never forget that. It is still a vision for all of us to live by.”
“There are questions around sanitary and phytosanitary regulations and around our access to services, which, on the face of it, looks pretty good in this agreement, but there are many annexes setting out exceptions. There is also the critical issue of access for our financial services, which are such an important part of our economy. We await the memorandum of understanding with great interest and expectation. This is about not only the nature of how equivalence is set but whether the European Union has the ability to withdraw those arrangements and that equivalence at short notice, which could be so damaging to the sector. The Governor of the Bank of England will appear before the Treasury Committee before the recess is out to discuss those issues.”
“It remains to be seen how the mechanisms in this agreement will ultimately set the balance between fair competition and the pursuit of legitimate competitive advantage or allow for appropriate Government support for the sectors that we wish to develop further. There are questions around the rules of origin. It has been pointed out that zero tariffs only apply provided the rules of origin are met. The fact that we have bilateral cumulation between the EU and the UK is welcome, but are these rules of origin too restrictive, and are the transitions around them—particularly, for example, for electric vehicles—adequate for the adjustments that will be required?”
“It has been quite a journey from the gridlock of the last Parliament to our consideration of this legislation on a new deal with the European Union today. I welcome it, and I join others in congratulating the Prime Minister on a quite extraordinary achievement. Overall, this deal ticks all the boxes of zero tariffs on goods and zero quotas, and it brings back our sovereignty and control of our money and our borders. But as is always the case, it is in the detail that we will find the imperfections and the questions to be asked, and the Treasury Committee will be very active over the coming weeks and months in carrying out that scrutiny. We will look at questions around the level playing field and the issue of regulatory divergence.”
“There are reports that the Treasury has created an economic impact analysis, providing significant detail on the effect of coronavirus across the various sectors of the economy. For each sector, this analysis allocates red, amber and green ratings for revenue, jobs and financial stability. Given the vote tonight, may I ask my right hon. Friend why that analysis has not been published?”
“Can he set out how he is going to ensure that, as we come out on the other side of the crisis, businesses and entrepreneurs are given every possible support and freedom to power our economy forward over the years ahead?”
“I very much welcome many of the positive measures that my right hon. Friend has just announced. However, he has inevitably revealed some of the more difficult decisions that he has to make around a reduction in overseas development aid and the freezing of public sector pay next year—not across the board but on a selective basis—and there will be many difficult decisions of that type around spending and taxation in the future. Does he agree that, in terms of dealing with the deficit, it is not just about spending and taxation but also very much about growth? Does he also agree that we should look to private sector businesses and entrepreneurs to provide that growth?”
“The reply that I received did not provide the information requested, so will he confirm that the SAGE minutes are accurate when they state that the Treasury has worked on this analysis under the auspices of its chief economist? If they are accurate, will he confirm that the Treasury will release this analysis without delay?”
“I agree with my right hon. Friend that taking an iterative approach to these problems as circumstances change is a strength rather than a weakness, but may I just focus for a moment on the lockdown itself? As my right hon. Friend will know, the minutes of the SAGE meeting held on 21 September stated: “Policy makers will need to consider analysis of economic impacts and the associated harms alongside this epidemiological assessment. This work is underway under the auspices of the Chief Economist.” My right hon. Friend knows that I wrote to him asking that the analysis referred to in those minutes be provided prior to the vote on lockdown that was held in the House yesterday, as this would have helped to inform that debate.”
“I broadly welcome the new measures that the Government have brought forward to support jobs and, in particular, the increase in support for the self-employed from 40% to 80% under the self-employment income support scheme arrangements. However, as my right hon. Friend will know, the Treasury Committee produced a report earlier this year in which we identified more than a million individuals—the self-employed in particular—who were missing out on support. Will he update the House on whether, under the new measures, any of those identified in the report will receive support where they were not before? If the answer is no, why is that the case?”
“This lockdown will inevitably have very serious consequences for our economy, and for the livelihoods of millions of people up and down the country, for many years to come. My right hon. Friend has rightly stated that he does not wish to see the NHS overwhelmed, but, equally, we do not wish to see the UK economy overwhelmed. Will he therefore agree that perhaps we need a more balanced debate about lockdown, involving both scientists and economists more prominently? With that in mind, would he consider the Government’s chief economic adviser—or similar economic expert—joining the Government’s scientific experts for the No. 10 press briefings?”
“I welcome my right hon. Friend’s statement. Once again, he has listened to businesses. When it comes to lockdowns—I have to say that I agree with the remarks he has just made about circuit breakers—may I draw his attention to the minutes of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies meeting on 21 September, which state: “Policy makers will need to consider analysis of economic impacts and the associated harms alongside this epidemiological assessment. This work is underway under the auspices of the Chief Economist.”? Will my right hon. Friend update the House on the progress that has been made by the chief economist? Does my right hon. Friend agree that, to ensure a balanced public debate, the chief economist or a similar economic expert should join the epidemiologists for No. 10 covid press briefings?”
“My right hon. Friend has done a great deal to support jobs in our country, but he will know that lockdowns destroy jobs and lead to increased mental illness and a smaller economy that for many years will be less able to look after our most vulnerable. Does he agree that the Government should come forward urgently with a comprehensive review of the impact of lockdowns, not just in terms of epidemiology and the effect on the NHS, important though that is, but in terms of the economy, businesses, jobs and the country’s social wellbeing?”
“My right hon. Friend and the Chancellor of the Exchequer have done a great deal to support the economy, but a careful balance must be struck between protecting against the virus and avoiding further economic destruction. With that in mind, what scientific evidence has the Treasury received that closing pubs at 10 pm gets the balance right?”
“Local restrictions are inevitably impairing many thousands of businesses in those areas, but some businesses are not just being impaired: because of the regulations, they are simply unable to trade. I am thinking about many companies in the hospitality sector—events companies, hotels, nightclubs and many more. Would my right hon. Friend recognise that and come forward with a specific set of support packages for those businesses, which the regulations basically stop dead in their tracks? In that way, the many thousands of jobs in those businesses, which are otherwise entirely viable, can be saved.”
“The devil, of course, will be in the detail, but from what I have heard, I broadly and warmly welcome this statement. I am encouraged by the job support scheme and the fact that it is targeted, for which my Committee and I have been calling for some time. I am encouraged by the announcements on loans and the pay-as-you-grow scheme, particularly to help small and medium-sized enterprises, and I am encouraged that the self-employed will have their scheme extended. However, my right hon. Friend will know that there was considerable concern that many self-employed people fell through the gaps of the support provided. Will he say something about whether some of those gaps will be ameliorated or ironed out as a consequence of the new measures, and will he meet me in fairly short order to discuss the options that might be available?”
“I very much welcome the balanced and proportionate set of measures that my right hon. Friend has put together, and recognise that these are very finely balanced and very difficult decisions for him to take. But lockdowns, as I think he recognises, destroy jobs and also personal wellbeing. The fact that lockdowns have damaged our economy means that in the years ahead a smaller economy will probably have serious impacts on the health of millions of people up and down our country. Does he recognise that, yes, we should listen very carefully to the epidemiologists, but we must also listen very carefully to the Treasury, to businesses and to economists?”
“My right hon. Friend has done a tremendous amount to support jobs in our country, but does he agree that many thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, of jobs are going to be viable after covid is dealt with but will not make it unless they are provided with further targeted support after the end of October?”
“I welcome the hon. Gentleman’s statement. I agree with him that this is a very fine report. I think there are two reasons why this project has been so powerful: one is the nature of the attendees at this assembly and how they were selected, being representative of the whole country; and the second is the proportionate nature of the recommendations in the report. Does he agree that the considered, measured and tolerant approach that has been adopted is a good example for all those individuals and groups who wish to contribute to the climate change debate?”
“My right hon. Friend’s plan for jobs is characteristically thoughtful, creative and bold, and I firmly welcome it. He has rightly said that we look to businesses to grow the jobs of the future, yet we know that many hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises will emerge from this crisis saddled with significant amounts of corporate debt, and we will look to them at that moment to be investing in jobs and growth, rather than being concerned about de-leveraging and shoring up their balance sheets. So may I ask my right hon. Friend whether he has given this particular issue specific thought, and if he has, what solutions he might have to bring to this House?”
“Guidance has recently appeared on Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs website that suggests that those who take covid-19 tests, as provided by their employer, will have to treat the cost of those tests as a taxable benefit in kind, which is very unfortunate, particularly in respect of those frontline workers who may be involved. Will the Chancellor look into this matter, please, as a matter of urgency?”
“Our estimate is that, in total, certainly more than 1 million people are falling through the gaps. There are others who estimate that figure to be nearer 2 million or 3 million people.”